THE MISTAKES OF ARMENIA AND THE SUCCESS OF AZERBAIJAN
View By Sedat Laciner
Translated By Hasan Selim Ozertem And Fatma Yilmaz (Usak)

Journal of Turkish Weekly, Turkey
Feb 8 2007

Armenia and Azerbaijan have become independent countries just like
other former Soviet Republics after the collapse of the Soviet Union.

Some of the Republics were really ready for this "happy ending"
whereas for the others the collapse of the Soviet Union was an expected
situation which would supposedly never come. In other words, many
of them were not ready for independence in economic, political and
more importantly in mental terms. Two of these Republics were both
Armenia and Azerbaijan.

Armenia could not manage to be independent in modern times except
the period of first establishment of Armenia (1918-1920). The
Armenians in the first Republic had no clue about independence and
state administration. Until the World War I, Armenians lived under
the Ottoman, Russian and Iranian sovereignty. And the World War
I exactly transformed Armenians into a Diaspora nation. Armenians
that spread all around the world due to commercial, political and
other reasons have become more romantic and idealist after falling
apart with Turkey. The difficulties of living in foreign land are
reflected on every aspect of the lives of Armenian people. As the
conflicts between Turks and Armenians have mostly been exaggerated,
the 1915 was idealized and in a way became legendary. The hatred for
Turks has become the cement that sticks them together in diaspora. Not
being able to found a state, to gain important successes at least
to protect the dignity of Armenian nation against the Turks or the
lack of unifying successes in other parts, did not allow Armenians
to criticize and question themselves. However, the Greeks after
founding their state and winning some important battles against Turks
have become less romantic and established relatively good relations
with the Turks. On the other hand, Armenians unfortunately lived
in a world of fantasies. In fact, one of the most important reasons
for the first Armenian state to be short-lived this much was their
extreme idealism. Armenians chose to conduct assassinations against
Turkish diplomats instead of establishing good relations with their
newly established neighbor countries. This endeavor, which is called
Nemesis campaign in a way alienated Armenia and Armenians from their
real problems. However, in the same period, the new Turkish Republic
emerging from the ruins of the Ottoman Empire was not infusing its
people to attack to the Greeks or Armenians or any other neighbor.

The leader of the Young Republic, Mustafa Kemal Ataturk, was telling
its people "We have just come out from a war. However, the real and
greater war begins right now. And this is the war of development."

According to him, being independent in real sense could be maintained
through the way of economic independence and development. Due to this,
Turkey should not waste any time on the previous issues. In this
context, Ataturk tried to reestablish relations with Greece and other
countries which were subjects of the Ottoman Empire. Armenia was in
this list, but they could not approach positively to this brave effort.

***

* PETROSYAN: A FAILED ARMENIAN REVOLUTION ATTEMPT

In this regard, it was so important that Armenia emerged in the
scene of history once again in 1991. Having a new state, Armenians
could pursue a path which is more realistic. Turkey’s expectation
was also in this direction since it was expecting to find a party
with whom it could communicate on Armenian issue. Also, the first
Armenian President; Levon Ter Petrosyan and some of his advisors
believed that they should not repeat the same mistakes. According to
Petrosyan, the first and the most crucial mistake of Armenians was
to set objectives going well beyond their capacities. Although they
had known that they could not be successful with their own power,
relying on other countries -especially on the Russians- they rioted
against the Ottoman Empire to establish a separate state on the Ottoman
territories. In accordance with their point of view, the Russians
would support Armenians whereas United Kingdom, USA, France and other
Christian countries would put strain upon Turks on the international
arena, in order to make them accept the demands of Armenians.

Accordingly, the only thing they should do was to keep their demands
alive ever more. In this regard, Armenians resorted to terrorist
movements, rioting and many other methods during the 20th century. In
World War I, even they fought against Ottoman Empire in the French
and Russian side. However, in the end it was always the Armenians
to lose. They lost their people and their lands on which they had
lived for the centuries. It seems so that Armenians did what Russia
and even England and France had told to them. In 1915, they rioted
against the Ottoman Empire in the east part of the country when
the allies had sent the most powerful fleet of the world to the
Dardanelles (the Western front). But Armenians could not gain any
success. Among the invaders, the first one was France to leave the
country when it encountered with difficulties. Russia never fully
supported Armenians to the end after the First World War, but newly
established Turkey. If these countries had supported an independent
Armenia, the Ottoman Empire could not resist against this much great
power pressure. This was the first analysis of Levon Ter Petrosyan:
Armenians should count on their own power. It was a big mistake for
Armenians to build their all policies on the support of other nations.

The second analysis proposed by Levon Ter Petrosyan was that Armenia
was a small, poor, sea-locked country having no significant natural
resources and surrounded by the Turkish peoples. In the west, there
is Turkey with its population of 75 million, whereas in the north
Azerbaijan with its population of about 7 million and the south
according to some sources there are more than 30 million of Azeri
Turks of Iran. On the other hand, Georgians in the north have always
been the ally of Turks for the centuries. Armenia has no border with
Russia. Under these circumstances, only way to exist had to develop
good relations with its neighbors, especially with the Turks. The
third important analysis proposed by Mr. Petrosyan was, if Armenia
wants to be independent in real terms, it should have diverged from
the Moscow. Yerevan being dependent so much on Moscow for decades
should have dissolved its bonds and stand on its own feet. To sum,
the deductions of Petrosyan as follow:

Armenians should not rely on other countries’ support for objectives
which go beyond their own capabilities and powers, Relations would
be developed with neighbors especially with Turkey, Dependency on
Russia in particular would be decreased rapidly and an Armenia which
is fully independent would be established.

****

Petrosyan and his team were about to realize a crucial revolution in
Armenian thought. However, being so enthusiastic about independence
was not indicating that they are ready for it. They were still
into nationalism, which was so romantic and territory-centric. What
Armenians conceived from the term "homeland" was just a territory
and unrealistic ideals. They were considering annexing the regions of
Karabakh (Azerbaijan), Nakhcevan (Azerbaijan) and Jevahiti (Georgia)
into Armenia as the foremost priority. Even before the collapse of
Soviet Union ultra-nationalist Armenians had started to struggle for
Karabakh’s annexation to Armenia. Thus, before Petrosyan’s plan was
implemented, Karabakh issue became dominant in the region. In addition
to the turmoil in Azerbaijan, thanks to the direct support of Russia,
Armenians not only captured Karabakh but also the cities and villages,
in which only Azeri people live. They attacked to the Nakhcivan, but
as a result of Turkey’s immediate warnings the war remained limited
in the Eastern front.

Following these developments, Petrosyan lost his chance to compromise
with Turks. Issues of Karabakh and regions under occupation caused
relations to break off with Azerbaijan and Turkey. Although Turkey
was among the countries which recognized Armenia in the first place,
it stopped diplomatic relations with Armenia and closed its borders.

This was so normal since both Turkey and Azerbaijan are Turkish
states. Moreover, there were millions of citizens who were Azeri
oriented in Turkey. During the Armenian War, streets of Turkey were
full of protests. In addition, Turkey was a country that promotes
status quo more than any other country in its region since 1923. The
most important Turkish foreign policy principle was that there could be
no way for a border change by force of arms in the region. Turkey has
resisted all efforts to change the borders by force for the decades
and Turkey saw the Armenian occupation as illegal attempt to change
the borders.

Despite this fact, Turkey searched for ways to prevent a possible
deadlock in terms of the problem. Turkish leaders expected that
Armenia at least would withdraw from the regions except Karabakh. If
Armenia had taken a step in this regard, Turkey could take bigger
steps. Messages sent to Armenia again and again during the 1990s.

Even Turkey sent food aid to Armenian people after the war due to the
emergence of the dramatic situation. Moreover, donations and aid sent
from the European and American states only could be transferred to
Armenia through Turkey. As an indicator of good faith Turkey opened
its airspace to Armenians and started regular flights between Turkey
and Armenia. However, Petrosyan understood that as long as he could
take steps in Karabakh issue, he would not resolve any problems. He
was about to take radical steps in his last days in the government
but Russia and ultra-nationalist diaspora Armenians came on the scene
and brought down Petrosyan. It is known that Tashnaks, who were banned
by Ter Petrosyan, played an important role in this process.

* KOCHARYAN PERIOD

After Petrosyan, extremely romantic Robert Kocharyan has come to
power. He was not even a citizen of the Armenian state when he became
the President. He attended to the elections by cheating and he had
no idea even about what state means. He was totally a warrior and
knew well about the Armenian people and whatever it takes Armenians
should be defended. In accordance with his opinions Turks were bad,
Armenians were good and Russia was a friend whereas Azerbaijan and
Turkey were enemies. His vision was as shallow as this much.

Thus, the era of Petrosyan came to an end and the hopes of peace
faded away with him. The policies and analysis of Kocharyan were
adverse that of previous terms;

– Relations with Russia developed further and many Russians and
supporters of Russia came to more effective positions in Armenia. In
this period, while the former Soviet Republics was diverging from
the Moscow economically and politically, Armenia became even more
dependent on the Moscow than the times of the Soviet era. Especially,
Russia became an energy monopoly in Armenia. While becoming dominant
in Armenian economy, Russians also took control of the Armenian
politics. Armenia became the only Russian base in Caucasus, yet it
could not receive the essential supports from Russia.

Kocharyan team made enormous efforts to develop relations with the
Diaspora. They especially hoped to find new credit and financial
aid sources in the diaspora. The Diaspora could provide economic and
political support. However, the expected economic support was received
so late and less than anticipated. Moreover, the extremists began to
constitute a monopoly in relations with Armenia and they captured even
the control of domestic politics. Armenia failed being an independent
country that can stand on its own feet.

– Kocharian Administration nearly declared war against the Turkish
people. A campaign has been started against Turkey to pass the
so-called genocide bill in the parliaments all over the world. In this
way, Turkey would be in a tough position in the international arena
and had to accept the Armenian demands. In other words, Kocharyan
was implementing the classic Armenian tactics once again.

Not relying on its power but on that of the others’, Armenia was
disrupting relations with its neighbors.

– Lastly, Armenia under Kocharian pursued an uncompromising
policy about Karabakh issue. It is said that Karabakh was an
independent country and would never be returned to Azerbaijan. For
the other regions under Armenian occupation, they would not make
any concessions. Kocharyan, being from Karabakh, hired Karabakhian
guards to protect his presidency and took precautions. Karabakh issue
therefore took the control of domestic and foreign Armenian policy.

***

* WHO WON, WHO LOST? AZERBAIJAN OR ARMENIA?

While turning back to its previous policy Armenia was thinking that
it had gained a crucial victory against Azerbaijan. However, it was
the Azeris who really gained a victory;

It was perhaps Azerbaijan to be the most unprepared country for
independence among the former Soviet Republics. The concept of national
conscience could not be created yet. On one hand communists wanted
an Azerbaijan bounded to Moscow, on the other hand nationalists were
as idealist and romantic as to dream a big Turkish state including
Central Asia, Iran and Turkey. In the end, as a result of the domestic
conflicts and debates and the direct Russian support to Armenians,
Azeris could not protect 20 % of their territory and Armenia occupied
these regions. One million Azeri became refugees and this problem
has continued so far. Azerbaijan lost territories at least for a
while but it gained its national unity, development and a market
integrated with the world. Let’s look at what Azerbaijan won in its
conflict against Armenia:

– Azerbaijan has become a real nation aftermath of the Armenian attacks
and thanks to the Armenian attacks, a solid national conscience was
created. Without Armenian attacks, the period to create a national
conscience would take so long.

– Azerbaijan has become a more homogeneous country. During the war
about 500.000 Armenians left Azerbaijan and all of the Azeri people
left Armenia. However, Azerbaijan Armenians were more powerful in
Azerbaijan than the Armenia Azeris in Armenia. The Azeri Armenians
were the richest and the most influential people of Baku. Thus, their
leaving this country in a way means gaining real independence for
Azerbaijan. Even the Karabakh Armenians were relatively rich and had
all of the freedoms. When Armenians occupied the Azeri territories
they lost their special position in Azeri economy and politics but
gained only the territories.

– Without the war Azerbaijan would only be a puppet of Moscow and
could never gain its independence in a short time in a real sense.

The war resulted with broken ties -in a way that could never be
repaired- between Russia and Azerbaijan. Today, if Azerbaijan really
is an independent country, it owes this to Armenian aggression.

– Owing to the uncompromising and aggressive attitude of Armenia,
Azerbaijan succeeded to isolate Armenia in the region. As a matter
of fact, Baku is happy with the Armenian polices towards Turkey
and Azerbaijan. Thus Armenia has been left outside of all regional
co-operations and integration projects.

– Having rich petroleum and natural gas reserves Azerbaijan grew
stronger and stronger, while Armenia got damaged in economic terms.

It was really hard to stand on its own feet for Armenia in the
existence of conflicts with its neighbors. Occupied Karabakh was
not a region that worth it in this regard. It did not contribute
to Armenia even it became a burden for Armenian economy. In this
situation Azerbaijan has made the following analyzes;

* It was obvious that it could not recapture Karabakh with the help
of its army right now. The most important reason for this; Russia was
still supporting Armenia. Azeri forces attempted to recapture Karabakh
in 1999, but Russians warned them and said "if you insist on this,
you would lose Gence city too".

* Secondly, USA and the EU did not respond well enough to Armenia
after the occupation of the Azeri territories. Owing to Armenian
Diaspora’s activities primarily France and the US have been following
delay tactic against Azerbaijan. Karabakh and the other cities continue
to be remain under the Armenian occupation, and the Western countries
still promise to do something. Azerbaijan understood that the West will
not make enough pressure on the occupier Armenia at least for a while.

* USA and Europe were interested in Azeri oil and natural gas but
this had not turned into a political support yet.

* Turkey, alone itself could not bring an end to the occupation.

Under these circumstances, instead of wasting its energy for nothing,
Azerbaijan decided to strengthen its army while pushing Armenia in
difficult position. For the solution of the problem according to the
Azeri politicians for a while a deadlock policy should be pursued. In
this period, Azerbaijan should be strengthened while Armenia getting
weaker. In other words, the issue of continuation of the occupied
regions was in favor of Azerbaijan.

Azerbaijan did turn out to be right. Having an attitude, this was so
uncompromising and extreme that Armenians did not even move slightly
from the land which they occupied. While wasting its time on the
occupied regions, Azeris externalized Armenia from all of the regional
cooperation projects. The most important of them is Baku – Tbilisi –
Ceyhan Crude Oil Pipeline Project. It was certain that this pipeline
would pass through Armenia if Yerevan Government succeeded to soften
its attitudes a little. Either the project would be canceled or Armenia
would be preferred simply because it was shorter and most economic
route for the pipeline. Since the USA and Europe were the ones to
provide the required capital for this project even Azerbaijan could
not prevent this if Armenia moved wisely during the 1990s. Secondly,
natural gas pipeline also by- passed Armenia and now Kars-Baku railway
project is to by-pass Armenia. The railway that passes through Armenia
cannot be used and this pushed Turkey and Azerbaijan to construct
another one that passes through Georgia.

Armenians tried prevent this in all over the world, including American
Congress and Europe. Even they tried to guarantee that they would not
damage the trains that would pass through Armenia. However, it was
too little and too late. The most important of all, the cooperation
between Azerbaijan and Turkey were becoming more intense in all aspects
-from military to economics- that cover a broad spectrum. Armenia has
been fully isolated in the region and Russia’s political support did
not help out for economic development in Armenia. Not having border
with Russia and Russia’s commercial approach instead of behaving like
a strategic partner isolated Armenia and put it in a challenging
situation. In 15 years, the population of Armenia declined from 3
million to almost 2 million of people. Once again they spread all over
the world. Even to live and work they came to Turkey and currently
50-75.000 Armenians live in Turkey.

Another success of Azerbaijan is that step by step they achieved to
attract the attention of the USA and the Europe countries. Armenians
are still influential in these countries and Azerbaijan is still the
same Azerbaijan. Nevertheless, Azerbaijan is engaged with a close
collaboration with Western companies in terms of energy and in other
sectors and these countries has gradually begun to understand the
importance of Azerbaijan. For instance, for the energy security of
the European Union, Azerbaijan has a key importance. The BTC pipeline
transports the Caspian Basin’s oil resources to the European and
Mediterranean markets. Italia is the country that mostly takes
the advantage of this. The BTC pipeline represents an important
alternative for European Markets against Russian and Middle Eastern
oil. Similarly, transportation of Azerbaijan’s natural gas to Europe
through Georgia and Turkey, and joining of Kazakh and even Turkmen
gas to this would constitute a crucial alternative for Europe. Even
in the current situation, European companies have an important share
in Azerbaijan’s energy resources and in this regard Azerbaijan is not
a country that can be easily sacrificed anymore. The same situation
is valid for the US. It wants to break the dominancy of Russia in
the region and mostly interested in petroleum. Not only Azerbaijan
and Central Asian Republics might become an important alternative
to Russia but also they would get out of the influence of Russia
if they could become independent energy actors and break their
dependency to Russia. For this reason the USA attaches importance
to Azerbaijan and the other Central Asian Republics. Another factor
that makes Azerbaijan important for the USA is its neighboring to
Iran and Azeri population more than 30 million in this country. In
order to destabilize Iran and against Russia, the USA expects so
much from Azerbaijan. Through collaboration with Georgia and Turkey,
the attitude of Azerbaijan to tend towards the West constitutes the
base of the US policies. Nevertheless, the repercussions of this
cannot be witnessed on the Karabakh issue. Armenian lobbies are
still influential on decision makers of the US and the EU, thus the
cooperation with Azerbaijan can be blocked in some areas. Especially,
the US and the EU do not have the maneuvering field that they want.

In spite of this, they perfectly collaborate in economic terms and
this will continue in the future. Azerbaijan keeps its expectations
limited in this regard. It does not expect Western World to bring
the Armenian occupation to an end. Azerbaijan knows that it needs
time for this result. In fact, this situation in a way serves for the
interests of Azerbaijan. If pressure is made to Armenia and due to this
Armenia withdraws from the regions that it has occupied, demographic
and political balances could change rapidly in Azerbaijan and this
could lead country to an unstable situation. Besides, hundreds of
thousands of people that come from Karabakh and the other occupied
regions move into houses from the tents that they live. Some of
them are just got employed and in a certain level they accepted
the situation. Sudden changes in the current situation could cause
different radical expectations to emerge. Under these circumstances,
a gradual transformation seems better. And Azerbaijan exploits the
position of Armenia as an "occupant" to the end. Also, it externalizes
Armenia from all of the regional projects. While wasting its time on
the occupied lands for almost nothing, Armenia’s economy cannot be
integrated nor to the world neither to the region. On the other hand,
Azerbaijan is turning into a growing regional power.

The real success of Azerbaijan certainly is its economic development.

Particularly, with the implementation of BTC pipeline project,
Azeri economy has boomed. Growth in 2005 was 26.4 % and it seems
that in 2006 growth rate will exceed this number (around 30,6-32,5
%). Even a little decrease in this rate is anticipated for 2007; a
similar growth rate is expected. Oil and natural gas revenues have an
important share in this growth rate. However, growth in non-petroleum
sector is around 9.5 %, which also is a high rate. It can easily be
supposed that with the flow of revenues that would come from energy
sector to the other sectors, the growth rate in non-petroleum sector
will increase further. Parallel to this, also budget deficit is
decreasing rapidly. There are significant increases in exports and
imports. It is easy to observe the spread of prosperity in Baku. Per
capita income has exceeded $ 7.300 in 2006 and this will increase
further. Unemployment rate is around 1.2 %.

Nevertheless, Armenia pursues a different route. Even though the
growth rate was around % 12 in 2006, this number could be deceptive
to understand an economy, which is so small, like in Armenia. The
economy, which can hardly survive with financial aids and transfers,
is not sufficient to keep the population in the country. Construction
sector has an important share in the growth of Armenian economy.

Diaspora transfers an important amount of money to the country. This
resource causes high growth rates. However, this is not something
sustainable. Armenian economy cannot create its own dynamics and
has an image that this economy needs much more financial aids and
transfers. Unemployment in Armenia is still around 30 %. Investments
of private sector mostly come from Diaspora. This means the dominancy
of Diaspora on economy and certainly on politics. Similarly, Russia
has taken the control of certain sectors like energy. Despite of the
virtual growth in the economy per capita income is around $1.513.

Even this number exceeds $5.000 with PPP; it is so interesting
that per capita income remains in this level despite of declining
population. On the other hand, the biggest problem of Armenia is the
uncertainty which Karabakh causes on its economy. Even some Diaspora
companies hesitate to invest in the country. Similarly, the closed
borders of Azerbaijan and Turkey between Armenia and having no exits
to sea increase the dependency on the borders of Georgia and Iran.

Accordingly, this increases the customs expenses of Armenia.

* CONCLUSION

Briefly, Armenia thinks it gained a victory in Karabakh and in the
other regions that it has occupied. It considers that in time it
can make other countries to forget this occupation, but for what. It
endangers the whole Armenia only for Karabakh territories. Armenia
could not comprehend the changing nation-state concept. Armenia still
preserve the old-fashioned state concept of the 19th century. Just
for land they endanger their nation and the state they could found
so late. Armenians could build their policies on fight against Turks
even though they are surrounded by 110 million Turks. Turkish Armenian
journalist Hrant Dink defended that Armenian identity should not be
built on conflicts with Turks. In accordance with his opinions, this
was the poison in the Armenian blood. Wherever they are, according to
Mr. Dink, Armenians should get rid of this poison and create a holy
alliance with Armenia. This alliance should be created on keeping
Armenia alive, not to satisfy the personal and ideological interests
through Armenia.

Citizens serve for their countries and try to glorify it. However,
Armenians try to satisfy their feelings and needs by sacrificing
Armenia. Respecting to their sorrows in the past, I could not
understand whether they want to glorify Armenian nation or try to
satisfy their personal and political ambitions by means of fighting
with the Turks.

They could not appreciate the first Armenian state. Tashnaks firstly
used this state to take revenge, and then handed it over to the
Bolsheviks. We hope history to not repeat itself. Maybe they will
be surprised but we will be the ones to worry the most. Turkey and
the region needs a stronger and really independent Armenia than the
Diaspora Armenians need.