EUObserver, Belgium
Feb 9 2007

Russia raises prospect of UN veto on Kosovo

09.02.2007 – 18:08 CET | By Andrew Rettman

EUOBSERVER / BRUSSELS – Russia has made clear it will veto any UN
security council resolution that proposes Kosovo independence without
Serb agreement, adding it would favour a confederation between
Belgrade and Pristina instead to help soothe separatist tension in
the Western Balkans and beyond.

"If it is a negotiated solution, Russia will not oppose it. But if it
is an imposed solution, Russia will oppose it," Russia’s EU
ambassador Vladimir Chizhov told EUobserver on Thursday (8 February).
"Russia may not be happy even with a negotiated solution because of
its impact on other parts of the world."

"If a negotiated solution based on something different from
independence is found then it makes Kosovo a positive precedent –
it’s hard to speculate, maybe a loose confederation, a union or
whatever," he added. "But if there is an imposed solution based on
independence, it will serve as a negative precedent."

The remarks come after UN envoy Martti Ahtisaari last week presented
a draft blueprint for Kosovo’s future that puts the UN-administered
region on the road to statehood, with talks between Belgrade – which
has condemned the plan – and Pristina to take place in Vienna on 21
February.

The Kosovo issue will ultimately be decided by a new UN security
council resolution in the next few months, with Russia and China
holding vetos at UN level and with the other veto powers, the US, the
UK and France broadly in favour of giving Pristina the independence
it craves.

Ravaged by ethnic conflict just eight years ago, Kosovo continues to
see skirmishes between its ethnic Serb minority and ethnic Albanian
majority in a situation that risks plunging Europe back into the
darkest period in its recent history and causing ripples in disputed
territories around the world.

"Whether you or I like it or not, Kosovo will serve as a precedent
for others," Mr Chizhov said, outlining a "concentric circle" effect
that could see future calls for independence by ethnic Albanian
enclaves in Serbia’s Presevo Valley, parts of Macedonia and
Montenegro as well as by the Serb portion of Bosnia.

"Then if you look further afield, people in Transdniestria [Moldova],
South Ossetia [Georgia], Abkhazia [Georgia], Nagorno-Karabakh
[Azerbaijan], not to mention Northern Cyprus…would say they have
more reasons to claim independence than Kosovo," the ambassador went
on.

"What about Quebec? And if you look to the other side of the planet,
what about Taiwan? This is a concern for another member of the
permanent security council [China]," he said, adding there is "no
sense of inevitability" about Kosovo’s independence in Moscow today.
"The Ahtisaari proposals…might change."

The Russian ambassador also criticised the EU and US’ excessive focus
on the sensitivities of Kosovo Albanians and the safety of
international peacekeepers, while neglecting the rights of the Serb
nationalist camp – associated in the EU with Slobodan Milosevic’s
bloody crackdown against ethnic Albanians in 1998.

"You cannot count on a solution that requires difficult choices for
one side and easy choices for the other," Mr Chizhov said. "Everybody
is afraid of the Kosovo Albanians going ballistic, but nobody is
talking about what the Serbs might do."

"Let’s face it: UN resolution 1244 [which currently governs
Serbia-Kosovo relations] has been implemented only partially, only
those parts that favour Kosovo Albanians," he explained, giving the
example of a UN mandate for a contingent of 999 Serb soldiers to
guard Serb holy sites in Kosovo "which never materialised."

EU seeks ways to placate Serbia
Meanwhile, EU foreign ministers meeting in Brussels on Monday will
discuss the possibility of re-starting EU integration talks with
Serbia despite Belgrade’s non-compliance with the UN war crimes
tribunal in the Hague, which has demanded the hand-over of fugitive
general Ratko Mladic.

UN prosecutor Carla del Ponte last week urged the EU not to re-engage
with Belgrade until Mladic is in the dock in a line championed by the
Netherlands at EU level, but with an increasing number of EU states
swinging toward giving Serbia a political gift to improve the
prospects for Mr Ahtisaari’s plan.

"We won’t necessarily follow her advice," an EU diplomat told
EUobserver on Friday, before questioning Ms del Ponte’s judgment by
saying she is prone to "mood swings" and "may be focusing on Mladic
too much."