ILKHAM ALIEV IS PREPARED FOR WAR AGAINST ARMENIA AND FOR COOPERATION WITH GEORGIA
by Natalia Pulina, Vladimir Mishin
Translated by Pavel Pushkin

Source: Moscovskie Novosti, No. 5, February 09-15, 2007, p. 20
Agency WPS
DEFENSE and SECURITY (Russia)
February 12, 2007 Monday

TRANSCAUCASIAN ARM WRESTLING; THE PRESIDENT OF AZERBAIJAN DOES NOT
RULE OUR RESTARTING OF WAR AGAINST ARMENIA AND TURKEY SUPPORTS HIM;
The president of Azerbaijan, Ilkham Aliev, broke his silence and did
not rule out restarting hostilities with Armenia should resolving
of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict fail. Aliev expressed his assurance
that he would win "the second phase of war" against Armenia.

Until recently, the presidents of Azerbaijan and Armenia preferred
not to release harsh statement that could aggravate the already tense
relations between the republics.

The president of Azerbaijan, Ilkham Aliev, broke his silence and did
not rule out restarting hostilities with Armenia should resolving
of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict fail. Aliev expressed his assurance
that he would win "the second phase of war" against Armenia.

Ankara supported the belligerent stance of Baku. Nevzat Yalcintas, head
of the parliamentary group of Turkey in the OSCE, called on Azerbaijan
to prepare for a war against Armenia, "If you do not wish annexation
of land and wish for peace, prepare for war. If it is impossible
to solve the problem by peaceful means, Baku should be prepared for
anything." The Turkish representative also expressed his surprise by
the fact that Baku and Ankara had not signed a security treaty.

The topic of deepened military cooperation, up to the signing of a
treaty on the provision of mutual assistance, was probably discussed
during the recent visit of Azerbaijani Defense Minister Safar Abiev to
Ankara. Leila Yunus, Director of the Azerbaijani Institute of Peace
and Democracy, says that Baku may count on the military technological
and diplomatic support of Turkey. Even though no less than 60% of
Azerbaijan’s citizens support the forceful resolving of the conflict,
Baku is not ready to unleash the war. Yunus explains, "The Azerbaijani
army is not inferior to the Armenian army now.

However, hostilities will have a drawn-out nature." The prospects
of Baku in the "international aspect" look equally vague in terms of
war. That is why Azerbaijan focused on the reinforcement of the army.

This will enable the country to achieve superiority over Yerevan and
will force Armenia to increase the military budget. This will also
weaken the economy and the army of Armenia.

Speaking about Nagorno-Karabakh, Aliev periodically releases "shocking"
statements. The reason is that Azerbaijan, which has lost an actual
war to Armenia, tries to win an "information war" understanding
that the Nagorno-Karabakh problem will not be solved in the near
future. Baku rattles the saber against the background of chilling
relations with Moscow, whereas contacts of Moscow with Armenia keep
growing stronger. For various reasons, the final breaking of contacts
with Russia is not in the interests of Azerbaijan. First of all,
among such reasons are the prospects for Baku’s participation in the
North-South project in which Moscow and Tehran are also interested. The
only negative aspect for Baku is the discontent of Washington, which
is trying to play on worsening relations between the Transcaucasian
republics and Russia. In a related move, lobbyists in the US prevent
the development of a railway via the territory of Georgia to connect
Turkey and Azerbaijan. In the middle of the week, the President of
Azerbaijan and Georgia, Ilkham Aliev and Mikhail Saakashvili, signed
an agreement on the construction of the railway in the middle of the
week in Tbilisi. If the project Kars-Akhalkalaki-Baku is implemented,
Armenia will be exposed to an increased economic blockade because
the railway will bypass its territory. It is obvious that the plans
of the railway construction contradict the geostrategic interests of
Russia too.