MILITARIZATION IN THE GREATER CAUCASUS COULD HAVE DANGEROUS CONSEQUENCES
by Anatoly Tsyganok
Translated by Elena Leonova
Source: Nezavisimoe Voennoe Obozrenie, No. 5, February 9, 2007, p. 2
Agency WPS, Russia
What the Papers Say Part A (Russia)
February 12, 2007 Monday
THE POWDER-KEG OF EURASIA
An overview of military forces in the Greater Caucasus; The
Greater Caucasus includes territories belonging to six UN member
states (Russian Federation, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia, Turkey,
Iran) and three unrecognized republics (Abkhazia, South Ossetia,
Nagorno-Karabakh). Analysts are keeping close watch on this region’s
militarization processes.
The Greater Caucasus certainly isn’t the most peaceful part of
the world these days – but it’s not the only place where the
situation threatens to unleash new wars. Moreover, in contrast to
other hot-spots, at least this region doesn’t have any large-scale
hostilities under way, with millions of people being killed or
injured. Yet this particular region is getting very intense attention
from leading world powers, inter-state alliances, and various
international organizations. And this is entirely understandable:
it is a highly significant region from the geopolitical, economic,
and military-strategic standpoints.
The Greater Caucasus includes territories belonging to six United
Nations member states (Russian Federation, Armenia, Azerbaijan,
Georgia, Turkey, Iran) and three unrecognized republics (Abkhazia,
South Ossetia, Nagorno-Karabakh). Relations between them aren’t
exactly straightforward, to put it mildly. That’s why analysts are
keeping such a close watch on this region’s militarization processes.
Experts estimate, for example, that the Russian Armed Forces have a
total of 300,000 personnel in the North Caucasus.
The former Soviet republics
Of the former Soviet republics, Azerbaijan has the most numerous Armed
Forces: 95,000 personnel, including 85,000 in the Army, 8,000 in the
Air Force and Air Defense Forces, and 2,000 in the Navy. Aside from the
Armed Forces, Azerbaijan also has a National Guard (2,500 personnel),
Interior Ministry Troops (12,000), and Border Guards (5,000). Evidence
of Azerbaijan’s militarization can be found in its defense spending:
in 2007 this will exceed the entire budget of Armenia, with which
Baku has almost-hostile relations.
The Army of Azerbaijan consists of five army corps. The First, Second,
and Third corps are concentrated against Nagorno-Karabakh, although
part of the Second corps is deployed on the Azeri-Iranian border. The
Fourth (Baku) corps covers the capital city and the shoreline;
the Fifth corps is based at Nakhichevani. The Army has 292 tanks,
706 armored vehicles, 405 artillery pieces and mortars, 75 BM-21
multiple rocket launcher systems, and 370 anti-tank rocket launchers.
The Air Force of Azerbaijan (61 combat aircraft, 46 auxiliary aircraft)
includes a combined aviation regiment, a fighter and bomber squadron,
and separate squadrons of fighters, reconnaissance planes, and training
aircraft. Main airbases: Kyurdamir, Zeinalabdin (equipped with a NATO
air traffic monitoring system), Dallyar, Gyandzha, Kala.
The Air Defense Forces of Azerbaijan include four air defense brigades,
one air defense regiment, and two separate radar battalions. They
are equipped with S-200, S-125, S-75 (35 launchers), Krug, and Osa
air defense systems.
The Navy of Azerbaijan has a brigade of surface vessels (guard
division, landing vessels division, mine-sweeper division, search
and rescue division, training vessel division), a national waters
security brigade, a marines battalion, an intelligence and special
assignment center, and coastguard units. The Navy has a total of 14
warships and patrol boats and 22 auxiliary vessels, but not all of
them are serviceable at present, due to various technical problems
and a shortage of experienced specialists.
Azerbaijan’s main military-strategic partner is Turkey. Educating
military personnel in the pan-Turkic spirit is considered highly
important. At the same time, the Azeri leadership is striving to make
Azerbaijan a NATO member. As of January 1, 2007 the Army staff and
the Baku corps have been operating on the basis of NATO documents.
Azeri officers are trained according to NATO programs. Overall, the
combat readiness of the Armed Forces of Azerbaijan is not at a high
level, and they are not ready for large-scale military action.
Experts say, however, that Azerbaijan’s firepower has increased
significantly since it took delivery of 9A52 Smerch 300mm multiple
rocket launcher systems from Ukraine in 2004 (some analysts even
claim that the addition of these weapons could disrupt the military
balance in the Trans-Caucasus).
* * *
The Armenian Armed Forces have a total of around 53,500 personnel,
mostly in the Army. The Air Defense Forces have 3,900 personnel
and the Air Force has up to 700. The Armenian Army has eight
operational-tactical rocket launchers, 198 T-72 tanks, 320 armored
personnel carriers and infantry fighting vehicles, 360 field
artillery pieces, mortars, and multiple rocket launcher systems,
around 160 100mm guns for firing on ground targets (previously used to
avert avalanches), and 55 air defense system launcers (S-75, S-125,
Krug, Osa). The Armenian Air Force has seven fighters (six Su-25s,
one MiG-25), 12 combat helicopters (seven Mi-24s, three Mi-24Ks,
two Mi-24Rs), and 26 auxiliary aircraft (two L-39s, 16 Mi-2s,
eight Mi-8MTs).
Most of Armenia’s military forces and resources are concentrated
on the border with Azerbaijan. There are several battalions in the
Nagorno-Karabakh conflict zone itself, on occupied Azeri territory.
Units from the Fifth Army Corps are stationed close to the
Armenian-Turkish border. The main Air Defense Forces group is stationed
along the line of contact with the Azeri Armed Forces.
Armenia has no attack weapons on its borders with Georgia or Iran.
Russia has a closer relationship with Armenia than with any other
country in the South Caucasus. After Russia’s two remaining bases in
Georgia are withdrawn by 2008, Armenia will be the only country in
the Trans-Caucasus where Russia can deploy a group of troops.
The troops involved in Russian-Armenian joint air defense operate
according to a system developed in the Soviet era: joint monitoring
of the airspace to the south, using combat aviation and air defense
units. Essentially, this is an anti-NATO air defense option; de
facto, it’s anti-Turkey – despite a significant thaw in Moscow-Ankara
relations of late.
* * *
The forces controlled by the Defense Ministry and Interior Ministry
of Georgia have a total of around 30,000 personnel (23,000 with the
Defense Ministry, 7,000 with the Interior Ministry). There are also
the Border Guard Department (6,703 personnel) and the National Guard
(2,300 personnel).
The Georgian Army has up to 80 infantry fighting vehicles, around 100
tanks (T-55, T-64, T-72), 18 Grad multiple rocket launcher systems,
and over 115 artillery pieces.
The Georgian Air Force (1,300 personnel) has seven Su-25 assault
aircraft, ten L-39 training aircraft, and 24 helicopters (three
Mi-24s, four Mi-8ts, ten American Iroquois), and seven S-125 air
defense systems.
The Georgian Navy (1,500-2,000 personnel) has two frigates (acquired
from Lithuania), one rocket-carrying patrol boat, 11 sea-going patrol
boats, and five landing patrol boats.
Georgia’s defense spending is growing significantly faster than other
sectors of its economy and industry. The Tbilisi government rejects
the idea of signing agreements with the breakaway regions – South
Ossetia and Abkhazia – on not using military force, as recommended
by the United Nations and the OSCE. Since the NATO summit in Riga,
it appears that Tbilisi is no longer aiming to go for broke and try to
regain control of those territories by military means; but the threat
of a new military conflict breaking out still remains. Similarly, we
cannot rule out a resumption of active hostilities in Nagorno-Karabakh,
which broke away from Baku.
The unrecognized states
The Army of Nagorno-Karabakh is well-trained and well-equipped. It
has between 18,500 and 20,000 soldiers and officers; in the event of
mobilization it could call up a further 20-30,000 reserves.
Nagorno-Karabakh has 65 military personnel per thousand residents – a
higher proportion than any other Caucasus country. In this unrecognized
republic, the Armed Forces are regarded as an institution providing
stable employment, and many families depend on military salaries.
However, independent experts estimate that the Nagorno-Karabakh Army
has only 8,500 Nagorno-Karabakh citizens – along with 10,000 Armenian
citizens. In response, it is claimed that these 10,000 Armenians
are representatives of the 500,000 Armenians who originated from
Nagorno-Karabakh and are now living in Armenia.
It’s no secret, of course, that there is a high level of integration
between the Armed Forces of Armenia and Nagorno-Karabakh. Yerevan
admits supplying arms and various military items to Stepanakert.
Nagorno-Karabakh speaks openly of Armenian officers helping to train
its military personnel. However, Yerevan claims that no units from
the Armenian Armed Forces are present in Nagorno-Karabakh or the
occupied Azeri territories around it.
Armenian military analysts maintain that although the Armed Forces of
Armenia and Nagorno-Karabakh are smaller than the Azeri Armed Forces,
they are more combat-capable. This is particularly applicable to
the Nagorno-Karabakh Army – it is relatively mobile and compact, and
its officers have combat experience. By mobilizing 100% of Karabakh
war veterans, it can operate as small autonomous units in mountain
terrain. The weakness of the Nagorno-Karabakh Armed Forces is their
lack of any army aviation – a constraint factor in active military
operations.
* * *
The South Ossetian Armed Forces have around 3,000 personnel, with
15,000 reserves ready to return to duty immediately in the event of a
military threat. They have 87 tanks, 95 artillery pieces and mortars
(including 72 howitzers), 23 BM-21 Grad multiple rocket launcher
systems, 180 armored vehicles (including 80 infantry fighting
vehicles), and three Mi-8 helicopters). Around 35-40% of military
personnel are kept on alert to repel potential acts of provocation
from Georgia.
* * *
The Armed Forces of Abkhazia are organized into three groups of troops
(Central, East, West), plus the Air Force and the Navy.
According to various sources, personnel numbers are between 4,500
and 10,000, with around 28,000 reserves.
The Abkhazian Army has about 60 tanks (two-thirds are T-72s), 85
artillery pieces and mortars (including 152-mm howitzers), and 116
armored vehicles. The Air Force has two Su-27 fighters, one MiG-23,
five Su-25 assault aircraft, three L-39 training planes, one An-2,
one Yak-52, one Mi-8t helicopter, and one Mi-2.
The Navy has three divisions of sea-going patrol boats (21 Grif patrol
boats are based at Sukhumi, Ochamchiri, and Pitsunde).
Around a third of Abkhazian Armed Forces units are kept on alert to
repel any potential landings by Georgian marines and paratroopers.
Around 35-40% of military personnel and almost all mid-rank and
senior officers in the Armed Forces of South Ossetia and Abkhazia
have real-world combat experience.
Turkey – Moscow’s probable partner
Present-day Turkey is a power aspiring to a leading geopolitical role
to the south of the Great Caucasus Range. Several parallel processes
are nudging Ankara toward rapprochement with Moscow.
There has been a chill in American-Turkish relations due to the war
in Iraq and attempts by the US-supported government in Baghdad to
create a Kurdish autonomous region close to Turkey’s south-eastern
border. A conflict with the European Union arose in the wake of
Greek Cyprus being accepted into the EU and continued when Ankara was
denied EU membership. The French parliament recognized the genocide
of the Armenians in the early 20th Century Ottoman Empire. Friction
developed between Ankara and Tel Aviv when it was discovered that
Israeli intelligence is active in the Kurdish autonomous region in
northern Iraq and helping to create Kurdish intelligence forces.
(Turkey continues its war against the "terrorist organization known
as the Kurdish Workers’ Party" on its territory, with incursions into
northern Iraq.)
What’s more, with Bulgaria and Romania joining NATO, there are now
some US military facilities on the Black Sea – which Moscow and Ankara
have grown accustomed to regarding as their "domestic waters."
There is some likelihood of a partnership between Russia and Turkey
in the Caucasus, despite numerous wars between the two countries in
the past.
It should be noted that the Turkish Armed Forces are an object of
national pride.
The Turkish Army (490,000 personnel) has 4,205 tanks, 4,380
armored vehicles (738 infantry fighting vehicles and 3,642 armored
personnel carriers), 6,985 field artillery pieces (2,015 towed and
868 self-propelled), over 2,000 mortars, 60 multiple rocket launcher
systems; 3,582 anti-tank weapons, 19 air defense launchers, 1,510 air
defense rocket systems, around 1,600 air defense weapons, 196 planes
and up to 300 helicopters.
The Turkish Air Force (60,000 people) has 486 combat planes, 330
auxiliary planes, and 37 helicopters, organized into two tactical
air commands.
The Turkish Navy has 14 submarines, 26 frigates with guided rockets,
21 rocket-carrying patrol boats, 18 patrol boats, 24 mine-sweepers,
29 small landing vessels, and 151 auxiliary vessels. The Navy has
53,000 personnel.
North-eastern Turkey, part of the Greater Caucasus, is home to around a
third of the Turkish Army: the 3rd Field Army (8th and 9th army corps,
48th infantry brigade, 4th tank brigade) and part of the 2nd Field Army
(7th army corps).
The actions of the ground forces are supported by the 2nd Tactical
Aviation Command and the Navy along the coast.
An important player
Iran possesses a fairly powerful military organization, with 853,000
personnel. Fewer than half of them (403,000) are part of the Armed
Forces, which include the Army (300,000), the Air Force and Air Defense
Forces (85,000), and the Navy (18,000). The remaining 450,000 personnel
belong to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC).
The Iranian Armed Forces and the IRGC have 17-30 launchers and up to
175 tactical missiles with a range of 150-180 kilometers; 15 launchers
and around 250 Shihab-1 (Scud-B) operational-tactical missiles, with
a range of 300 kilometers; between 100 and 200 Shihab-2 (Scud-C)
missiles, with a range of up to 700 kilometers; and between 20 and
40 Shihab-3 missiles with a range of 1,500-2,000 kilometers.
The chief weapons of the Iranian Armed Forces and the IRGC also include
1,655 tanks, 1,490 armored vehicles, 2,085 towed artillery pieces, 310
self-propelled artillery pieces, around 900 multiple rocket launcher
systems, 270-306 combat planes, 580 helicopters (including 50 combat
helicopters), three submarines and six frigates, 20 rocket-carrying
patrol boats, 90 patrol boats, and 13 landing vessels.
The following forces are stationed directly in the Greater Caucasus,
on the Armenian-Iranian and Azeri-Iranian borders: the 21st and
77th infantry divisions of the Iranian Army and the 31st mechanized
division of the IRGC. The 3rd special assignment infantry division
of the IRGC, the 25th paratrooper brigade, and the 64th infantry
division are stationed on the Turkish-Iranian and Iraqi-Iraqi borders.
Around 25% of the forces and resources of the Iranian Armed Forces
and the IRGC are deployed along the Iranian coast of the Caspian Sea.
They are part of the Tehran group (30th infantry division, 16th tank
division, 23rd paratrooper division, and 58th stormtrooper division
from the Armed Forces; the 1st, 16th, 17th, 27th, 52nd infantry
divisions, the 12th infantry brigade, the 2nd mechanized division,
the 10th and 25th special assignment infantry division from the IRGC).
Iran holds quarterly military exercises – usually in western and
south-western Iran, the Persian Gulf, and near the Straits of Hormuz.
Most of the arms and military hardware used by the Iranian Armed
Forces and IRGC units date back to the 1980s and 1990s, but they are
in satisfactory condition and can be used to effect in battle. And
the Persians have always had high morale (the Islamic Republic of
Iran is capable of deploying a people’s militia of many millions).
Moreover, the experience gained in eight years of war with Iraq has
not been forgotten.