FOLDERS ON THE TABLE AND AN ASYMMETRICAL POWER BALANCE
Bulent Kenes

Today’s Zaman, Turkey
Feb 14 2007

Without question, there are disadvantages to being, or advancing
toward becoming, a great or global power, just as there are advantages.

If you are an unpretentious country that has limited influence, the
number and depth of the problems and the things you have to deal with
will be correspondingly small. But if you have aspirations of being
a great power and implement the prerequisites of those aspirations,
like it or not, the number, diversity, complexity and depth of the
problems you have to deal with will be correspondingly great.

For instance, let’s take up a topic very much in vogue these days:
the matter of the Armenian genocide resolution to be discussed in
the US Congress, aimed at forcing Turkey’s back against the wall.

Whenever an Armenian bill rises to notice, it is rightfully questioned
why such a big country as the Turkish Republic fails to counterbalance
the lobbying power of the Armenian diaspora.

In fact, many fail to notice that developments in the issue of the
allegations of genocide from the Armenians is just one of the numerous
folders on the table of Turkey’s foreign policy concerns, whereas it is
an essential engagement for Armenians and for the Armenian diaspora,
and it even represents an existential concern for them. This subject,
though it never ceases to be in the limelight for the Armenians,
is just among the dozens of concerns facing Turkey, though it is not
unimportant. And naturally, we exert the requisite amount of effort
and energy and ascribe an appropriate amount of importance.

A similar problem is encountered regarding Cyprus. However much it may
seem to be a national cause, the Cyprus issue is amongst the pile of
folders on the table. Whereas the Cyprus issue for the Greek Cypriots
is more than a national cause, it is always in the spotlight. While
Turkey has concerns other than Cyprus in the international arena,
the Greek Cypriots can easily focus all their efforts on making their
anti-Turkish rhetoric take root in the international community.

As a result, the side that is weaker in all aspects may have the
opportunity to be more successful in bilateral talks just by being more
committed, despite this asymmetrical power balance between Turkey and
other parties. These efforts would prove inefficient in the face of a
state that managed to become a global power and that has all sorts of
diplomatic, political and economic instruments in its hands; however,
they can be overly efficient and bring on a serious headache for a
state like Turkey, which is climbing the steps towards being a global
power from a regional one.

What Turkey has been experiencing regarding the Kurdish factions
in northern Iraq is not at all different from its experiences with
the issues of Cyprus and Armenia. While Turkey is advancing towards
being a global player, its success is still limited. Some problems
encountered recently are nothing but temporary issues that Turkey,
which has been pursuing a proactive foreign policy to give direction to
global developments recently, is facing while completing its process
of power concentration and consolidation.

Undoubtedly, as long as Turkey establishes an equilibrium between
the political and the diplomatic will it exercises and the power
it possesses , it will diminish the risk of losing in minor folders
focused on by smaller players, provided it proceeds with its ambitions
of growth in foreign policy.