Baku Sun, Azerbaijan
Feb 16 2007

Azerbaijan may quit talks, as Armenia reneges

by Ali Verdiyev

BAKU – Baku may break off peace talks with neighboring Armenia over
the occupied Azerbaijani region of Nagorno-Karabakh unless Yerevan
sticks to previous agreements, a top Azerbaijani diplomat has said.
`I want to tell the Armenian side that there is no use continuing
negotiations at all if they are not based on previous agreements,’
Deputy Foreign Minister Araz Azimov warned on Monday. Azimov, also
the Azerbaijani president’s envoy for the settlement of the
Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, was commenting to the media on the recent
meeting between the Azerbaijani and Armenian foreign ministers, Elmar
Mammadyarov and Vardan Oskanyan, in Moscow as part of a further round
of negotiations to resolve the 19-year-old conflict.

Azerbaijan and Armenia reached a ceasefire in 1994 to end the
bloodshed that had lasted for almost six years and claimed thousands
of lives. The Azerbaijani region of Nagorno-Karabakh and seven
adjacent districts were occupied by Armenia, while almost a million
Azerbaijani civilians were driven out of those areas in the wake of
the conflict. Yerevan is still demanding independence for the
separatist region, but Baku says it is ready to grant the highest
level of self-administration to Nagorno-Karabakh within Azerbaijan’s
borders.

`On some issues Vardan Oskanyan expressed a position which totally
contradicted the discussions that have been underway for the past two
years. It was about the return of ethnic Azerbaijanis to
Nagorno-Karabakh and the use of the road through Lachin,’ Azimov told
journalists.

Lachin is a key occupied Azerbaijani district connecting Armenia with
Nagorno-Karabakh. Armenia is reportedly refusing to use the Lachin
corridor jointly with Azerbaijan. `This [stand] is not constructive.
Yerevan must know that Azerbaijan will never agree to Lachin being
controlled by Armenia,’ Azimov said, pointing out that the only
possibility is joint use of the corridor.

`The overland connection between Armenia and Nagorno-Karabakh is
feasible only if the Lachin corridor is jointly used with respect for
Azerbaijan’s territorial integrity,’ he said. `If the Armenians want
to make progress in the determination of the legal status of
Nagorno-Karabakh, they must understand that it is impossible without
the return of the Azerbaijani community to Karabakh. Conditions
should be established for the security of ethnic Azerbaijanis in
Nagorno-Karabakh and Armenian troops should be withdrawn from the
region,’ Azimov concluded. The Azerbaijani deputy foreign minister
described the Moscow meeting of the foreign ministers as `a step
backwards’. It is difficult to predict how the peace talks will
proceed because of the `very tough position’ of the Armenian foreign
minister, Azimov said.

However, some analysts believe that Yerevan may be backpedaling on
previous agreements made in talks with Azerbaijan because of the
coming parliamentary elections in Armenia in May this year.
Azerbaijani Foreign Minister Elmar Mammadyarov, on the contrary, does
not think that the elections in Armenia may represent an obstacle to
continuing the peace talks. `Various elections are held in most
countries. But it does not mean that the negotiation process must be
stopped,’ the Azerbaijani minister told local news portal Day.az.
`The sides must have the political will to resolve the Karabakh
conflict’, he added. The importance of having the political will was
also stressed last week by Matthew Bryza, a US co-chairman of the
OSCE Minsk Group, a mediating team led by US, French and Russian
diplomats to resolve the Karabakh conflict.

`The parliamentary elections are forthcoming in Armenia and we need
to be very careful. I think that the problem is not in the Minsk
Group, but in the relations between the [two] countries,’ Bryza said.

As time ticks away, Armenia finds itself more isolated in the region
and sidelined by almost all major energy and communication projects,
something that many believe will eventually bring Yerevan to the
brink of accepting Azerbaijan’s proposals for resolving the Karabakh
conflict. Having yielded all of its energy enterprises to Russia and
accommodating Russian military bases on its territory, Armenia is
still dependent on Russia both economically and militarily.

Thus, Baku is making it clear that it is not going to tolerate any of
Armenia’s `whims’, by which it is often accused of trying to torpedo
peace talks which have been going on for a decade. Experts say that
the pressure on Armenia will keep growing as Azerbaijan is becoming a
major player in the region. Backed by oil revenues and lucrative
transport and energy infrastructures, such as the recently confirmed
Baku-Akhalkalaki-Kars railroad project, Azerbaijan is gaining more
weight regionally and will soon be able to dictate its terms to
Armenia, experts believe.