The Economist
February 17, 2007
U.S. Edition

Genocide wars; Turkey and the Armenians

More disputes between Turkey and America

A new dispute over the Armenians may sour Turkish-American relations

TURKEY’S fraught relationship with America is heading into a new
crisis. This may intensify anti-American feelings among millions of
Turks. It could even hurt America’s efforts to restore order in Iraq.

The latest spat stems from a bill in America’s Congress that would
recognise the mass slaughter of Ottoman Armenians in 1915 as the
first genocide of the 20th century. The fate of the Armenians remains
Turkey’s biggest taboo. Denying the official version, which says that
Armenians killed Turks in larger numbers than they were killed
themselves, has landed scores of Turkish academics and writers,
including a Nobel prize-winning author, Orhan Pamuk, in court. Last
month, a Turkish-Armenian editor, Hrant Dink, was murdered by an
ultra-nationalist teenager, who accused Mr Dink of insulting Turkey.

Successive American administrations have quashed genocide
resolutions, arguing that Turkey is too precious an ally to lose.
Jewish groups, grateful for Turkey’s warm links to Israel, have
helped. But the background landscape has changed.

First came the Turkish parliament’s refusal in March 2003 to let
American troops cross its soil to invade Iraq. Next were the Turkish
government’s overtures to Iran, Syria and Hamas, which infuriated
many in Washington, DC. Throw America’s refusal to attack PKK Kurdish
guerrillas in northern Iraq, and Turkish threats to do the job
themselves, into this "bubbling noxious stew, and we’re heading for a
perfect storm," says one administration official.

Nancy Pelosi, the new Democratic speaker of America’s House of
Representatives, whose Californian constituents include many rich
Armenians, refused to meet Turkey’s foreign minister, Abdullah Gul,
in Washington last week. Mr Gul spoke of "lasting damage" if America
joined 18 countries that term the Armenian massacres genocide.
American officials agree that vital interests are at stake. Turkey
has approved the overflight of 4,900 sorties to Iraq for unspecified
"combat support" since the start of the war, as well as the treatment
of wounded American soldiers in Turkish hospitals.

Some worry that, if an Armenian-genocide bill is passed, Turkey’s
mildly Islamist prime minister, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, may end this
co-operation, so as to woo nationalist votes in the run-up to
Turkey’s parliamentary election later this year. Hawks in the
opposition are already baying for the expulsion of thousands of
illegal migrant workers from Armenia and for a ban on flights between
Armenia and Turkey. Fear is mounting among Turkey’s own ethnic
Armenians: racist graffiti have been scrawled on the walls of their
churches, and threatening e-mails continue to flood the offices of
Agos, the weekly newspaper Mr Dink founded and ran.

What to do? Turkey could start by scrapping article 301 of the penal
code, which makes it a crime to "insult Turkishness". As Mr Dink
argued, recognition of Turkey’s past misdeeds would best come from
unfettered debate among Turks, not from vote-seeking foreign
politicians. In a hopeful sign, Mr Gul has complained that "people
outside Turkey think you can be thrown into jail for opening your
mouth." Worse, as Mr Dink tragically discovered, you can be killed.