ARMENIAN PARLIAMENTARY ELECTION RACE KICKS OFF
By Emil Danielyan
Eurasia Daily Monitor, DC
Feb 20 2007
Armenia’s parliamentary elections have officially been scheduled for
May 12, ushering in the traditional period of political upheaval
that has defined just about every poll held in the country since
independence. Although campaigning is to formally get underway in
late March, the leading Armenian parties are already gearing up for
what promises to be a very bitter race.
The stakes are particularly high for President Robert Kocharian and
his preferred successor, Defense Minister Serge Sarkisian. Continued
control of parliament is vital for Sarkisian’s victory in a
presidential election due early next year, as well as for Kocharian’s
evident desire to remain in government in some other capacity.
The authorities in Yerevan have assured the West that they will
finally hold elections meeting democratic standards. However, there
is widespread skepticism about the sincerity of those assurances,
with many local commentators fearing that the ruling regime’s lust
for power will again outweigh the need for democratic change. The
omens are not encouraging.
The governing Republican Party of Armenia (HHK), of which Sarkisian
is the unofficial leader, is already heavily relying on its grip on
most central and local government bodies. That reportedly includes
the forced recruitment of civil servants and other public sector
employees. The HHK is also backed by the vast majority of wealthy
businessmen dependent on government connections. Some of them lead
quasi-criminal clans that hold sway in various parts of the country
and are in a position to bully and/or bribe voters.
The government camp is also represented by the burgeoning Prosperous
Armenia Party (BHK) of Gagik Tsarukian, the richest of the local
"oligarchs" who pays ridiculously low taxes, apparently thanks to his
proximity to Kocharian. Tsarukian has been spending some of his untaxed
profits on nationwide provision of agricultural relief, free medical
assistance, and other public services to scores of impoverished people
on behalf of the BHK. These "benevolent actions" may be denounced as
wholesale vote buying by mainstream Armenian parties, but they have
earned the tycoon a populist appeal that seems to be translating into
strong support for his party.
The BHK now claims to be by far the largest party with as many as
370,000 members, or 16% of Armenia’s eligible voters. "I want to
emphasize that we have the ability to win the upcoming parliamentary
elections and to play a serious role in the country’s governance,"
Tsarukian declared at a high-profile party congress on December 15.
He said at the same time that he himself is not aspiring to any
government position, reinforcing the widely held belief that the
BHK’s main mission is to serve as Kocharian’s new exclusive power
base. Opinion is divided on whether the Armenian president helped
to create it as a counterweight to Sarkisian’s HHK or a powerful
addition to the presidential camp. Observers agree that Kocharian
wants to continue to pull the government strings after completing
his second and final term in office in less than a year from now.
Another major pro-Kocharian contender is the Armenian Revolutionary
Federation (HHD), an old nationalist party represented in the ruling
coalition. Despite holding four ministerial portfolios, the HHD,
also known as the Dashnak Party, is dissatisfied with its share of the
government pie and has threatened to join the opposition ranks if fresh
electoral fraud prevents it from making a strong showing on May 12.
The Armenian opposition, meanwhile, seems to have already failed
to form a united front against what it considers an "illegitimate"
government. Stepan Demirchian, Kocharian’s main challenger in the last
presidential election, indicated last week that his People’s Party
of Armenia will not form electoral alliances with other opposition
groups this time around. Demirchian reportedly received such offers
from three smaller pro-Western parties led by former prime ministers
Aram Sarkisian and Vazgen Manukian and the U.S.-born former foreign
minister Raffi Hovannisian. Also deciding to go it alone were two other
opposition heavyweights, former parliament speaker Artur Baghdasarian
and Artashes Geghamian, who finished third in the disputed 2003
presidential election.
The opposition’s failure to set up broad-based blocs is undoubtedly
good news for Kocharian and his political allies. As the Yerevan
newspaper Iravunk editorialized on February 16, this is "not only
objectively beneficial for the regime but also ruinous for the
opposition camp itself." Especially considering the fact television
will be largely off limits to opposition parties due to artificially
high prices for campaign advertisements set by the Armenian TV
stations, all of them loyal to Kocharian.
Besides, Tsarukian’s party will likely earn the Armenian authorities
a large number of "clean" votes and thereby reduce the scale of the
vote rigging that is clearly needed to ensure their desired election
outcome. "The people really want change, and they are being presented
with a powerful and ‘generous’ individual with unlimited material
resources who is capable of miraculously solving their socioeconomic
problems," commented the daily Aravot. "That is a workable legend
for the next few months."
Yerevan may also have reason not to be worried about negative
Western reaction to a repeat of serious vote irregularities, despite
stern election-related warnings issued by the United States and the
European Union. According to U.S. Deputy Assistant Secretary of State
Matthew Bryza, Armenia and Azerbaijan are "very close" to reaching
a long-awaited agreement to end the Karabakh conflict after the
upcoming Armenian polls. The conflicting parties have been discussing
a gradual settlement of the conflict that presumably requires policy
continuity in both Baku and Yerevan. Assuming that they really see a
chance for Karabakh peace this year, Western powers and Washington
in particular will hardly challenge the legitimacy of a government
that they hope will help to eliminate the main source of instability
in the South Caucasus.
(168 Zham, February 17; Iravunk, February 16; Aravot, February 16;
RFE/RL Armenia Report, February 7)