US strike against Iran would be damaging to Azerbaijan – analyst

Day.az website, Baku
22 Feb 07

Azerbaijan is opposed to resolving the crisis in the Persian Gulf by
military means as the consequences of a nuclear strike against Iran
would be "very negative" for the country, an Azerbaijani political
analyst believes. He said Azerbaijan sets a high value on its
relations with the US but it cannot ignore the fact that it is Iran’s
neighbour, although he does not believe that Iran would retaliate
against Azerbaijan if the US attacked. The following is the text of
report by Azerbaijani website Day.az on 22 February headlined "Rasim
Musabayov: ‘If the situation gets to crisis point and there is a
nuclear strike against Iran, the consequences for Azerbaijan will be
the most negative ones’". Subheadings have been inserted editorially:

[Correspondent] Rasim muallim [mode of address], how likely is the
reopening of hostilities in the Persian Gulf?

US "unlikely" to strike against Iran

[Musabayov] It’s difficult to give a simple answer to that
question. At the present moment, two groups of aircraft carriers and a
lot of US troops are concentrated in the Gulf and this clearly shows
that Washington is seriously contemplating a military scenario. But I
don’t think it’s likely that these plans will be carried out
immediately. Mainly because the Bush administration is rather
vulnerable just now. There is a Democrat majority in Congress which is
opposed to the current administration’s military plans. There is no
international support, not even limited support, for a military strike
against Iran, rather like in the US during the invasion of Iraq. With
all their self-confidence, the Americans do not like taking all the
risks of a military scenario upon themselves, and are unlikely to do
so.

[Correspondent] Then what is the point of the US spending huge sums on
keeping their troops in the Gulf?

[Musabayov] You have to realize that virtually the whole world does
not want Iran’s [nuclear] programme to make headway, and there are
various methods of putting pressure on Iran to stop them doing so. On
the one hand, talks are underway and it is the European countries who
are playing the main role here. The so-called European trio Germany,
France and Britain are making challenging proposals to Iran. But in
this instance the US is performing the function of a poor
policeman. In other words, the US personifies the inevitability of
punishment if Iran oversteps the mark in its nuclear programme.

[Correspondent] Is the suspension of work by Russian specialists at
the Bushehr nuclear power station linked with a possible start of
hostilities?

[Musabayov] I don’t rule that out, but I believe that this is possibly
Moscow’s pressure on Iran to get them to agree to the demands of the
international community. I would like to make the point that Russia
has no wish for Iran to get into the nuclear powers club by the back
door.

[Correspondent] What could be the possible consequences for Azerbaijan
in the event of a military conflict between the US and Iran?

Azerbaijan against military solution to Iran crisis

[Musabayov] Let’s not get too far ahead of ourselves. Despite what
some of the media are saying, I don’t think this is a question of
weeks or months. The Iranians will have to wait several years before
they have the bomb. But if the situation gets to crisis point and
there is a nuclear strike against Iran, then the consequences for
Azerbaijan could be the most negative ones. The bombing of thousands
of targets (military and industrial, including oil refineries, and so
on) could be accompanied by the release of toxic substances into the
atmosphere which would be brought here on air currents, we would lose
contact with Naxcivan, which is effected through Iran, and we would
incur substantial economic losses.

All this, not to mention the humanitarian disaster, refugees, and so
on, explains why Azerbaijani society and the authorities are very
apprehensive and do not approve of a military scenario for resolving
the Iranian nuclear crisis. A clash between Iran and the US could
place Azerbaijan in a difficult position from the political point of
view. Azerbaijan sets a high value on its relations with the US, but
we cannot ignore the fact that we are Iran’s neighbours. And, of
course, we cannot forget the 25-30 million of our fellow-countrymen
living in that country who could also suffer from such hostilities.

[Correspondent] The Iranian authorities have stated more than once
that in the event of a strike against their country they would strike
at American targets in other countries. Doesn’t this mean that
Azerbaijan could also be a target for Iranian missiles?

No benefit to Iran to strike against Azerbaijan

[Musabayov] I don’t think Tehran will decide to do that. This could
rebound on Iran. Azerbaijan will not be left without outside support
which will be offered, I am sure, not only by the US, but especially
Turkey and even Russia. Any peremptory aggression by Iran against
Azerbaijan would be met with a rebuff and would not bring any benefit
to Tehran. But there may be covert activities by Iran such as bringing
more secret agents into our country, and I believe that the
appropriate bodies here are monitoring the situation and if necessary
will take the necessary steps and preventive measures.

[Correspondent] The Western press is saying that the US has already
deployed three military bases in Azerbaijan. How true is this?

[Musabayov] It is hard for me to say. If you mean the two new radar
stations, yes, they were built with American technical
assistance. Clearly, if the US helped to set up these facilities then
they have some access to information obtained through the assistance
of these stations. But in any case, these stations are of a local,
technical nature and are helping Azerbaijan to strengthen its control
over our own air, sea and land borders. A military aerodrome and
certain naval forces are being brought up-to-date with US aid. But I
repeat that all this is of a defensive nature. No-one can use
Azerbaijan’s military infrastructure without our consent, and official
Baku states that it has no intention of giving such consent, and it
even considers sanctions to be unproductive.

But all this is for the present. If things deteriorated, in other
words, hostilities against Iran began, then much will depend on the
pressure which Washington puts on the Azerbaijani authorities and what
positions are taken up by Turkey, Russia and the European powers. But
let us not jump the gun, although we must be prepared for any
scenario, including those which affect ourselves.