Post Chronicle
Feb 23 2007
Outside View: America’s Turkey Problem
By F. Stephen Larrabee and Suat Kiniklioglu
Feb 23, 2007
As America struggles to stabilize Iraq while fighting rages, the last
thing it needs is to become embroiled in a new crisis with Turkey.
But that is where Washington appears headed if Congress passes a
resolution recently introduced by U.S. Rep. Adam Schiff, D-Calif. and
several colleagues in the U.S. House of Representatives accusing
Turkey of committing genocide against Armenians from 1915 to 1918.
Turkey denies claims by Armenians that the Ottoman Empire, Turkey’s
predecessor government, caused the deaths of 1.5 million Armenians in
a genocide. The Turkish government contends that far fewer Armenians
died, and that Armenians were killed or displaced in civil unrest
when the Ottoman Empire collapsed.
Clarifying the events surrounding the tragic deaths of the Armenians
is an important issue and deserves attention. But passage of the
proposed congressional resolution would open a Pandora’s box of new
problems by aggravating U.S.-Turkish relations and seriously
impairing the progress Turkey has made to address the Armenian issue
— all while failing to promote the Turkish-Armenian reconciliation
that is most needed.
The Bush administration has warned that even congressional debate of
the resolution could damage U.S.-Turkish relations. And even Schiff
has acknowledged that the resolution might harm relations between the
two countries in the short term.
The resolution comes at a particularly sensitive moment in Turkish
domestic politics. Turkey is entering a volatile electoral period,
with presidential elections in May and parliamentary elections in
November.
As these elections approach, Turkish politicians will be tempted to
play to the galleries. Consequently, the passage of the genocide
resolution could put the government of Prime Minister Recep Tayyip
Erdogan under strong domestic pressure to reduce cooperation with the
United States.
A new crisis in U.S.-Turkish relations would hurt America at a time
when the two nations are beginning to overcome the strains caused by
the U.S. invasion of Iraq, and could undercut President Bush’s new
strategy to stabilize Iraq.
Some 60 percent of all U.S. military equipment destined for Iraq goes
through the territory or airspace of Turkey, a Muslim ally and member
of NATO. If this route to Iraq were restricted or closed entirely,
the ability of the United States to effectively combat the insurgency
and violent militias in Iraq would be impaired.
The Erdogan government could also come under domestic pressure to
restrict U.S. use of the air base at Incirlik in southern Turkey to
re-supply American troops in Afghanistan.
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