AMERICA’S TURKEY PROBLEM
By F. Stephen Larrabbe & Suat KiniklioÐlu

Today’s Zaman, Turkey
Feb 26 2007

As America struggles to stabilize Iraq while fighting rages, the last
thing it needs is to become embroiled in a new crisis with Turkey.

But that is where Washington appears headed if Congress passes a
resolution recently introduced by Rep. Adam Schiff, D-Calif., and
several colleagues in the US House of Representatives accusing Turkey
of committing genocide against Armenians from 1915 to 1918.

Turkey denies claims by Armenians that the Ottoman Empire, Turkey’s
predecessor government, caused the deaths of 1.5 million Armenians in
a genocide. The Turkish government contends that far fewer Armenians
died and that Armenians were killed or displaced in civil unrest when
the Ottoman Empire collapsed.

Clarifying the events surrounding the tragic deaths of the Armenians
is an important issue and deserves attention. But passage of the
proposed congressional resolution would open a Pandora’s box of new
problems by aggravating US-Turkish relations and seriously impairing
the progress Turkey has made to address the Armenian issue — all while
failing to promote Turkish-Armenian reconciliation that is most needed.

The Bush administration has warned that even congressional debate
of the resolution could damage US-Turkish relations. Even Schiff has
acknowledged that the resolution might harm relations between the two
countries in the short term. The resolution comes at a particularly
sensitive moment in Turkish domestic politics. Turkey is entering
a volatile electoral period, with presidential elections in May and
parliamentary elections in November.

As these elections approach, Turkish politicians will be tempted
to play to the galleries. Consequently, the passage of the genocide
resolution could put the government of Prime Minister Recep Tayyip
Erdoðan under strong domestic pressure to reduce cooperation with
the United States. A new crisis in US-Turkish relations would hurt
America at a time when the two nations are beginning to overcome the
strains caused by the US invasion of Iraq and could undercut President
Bush’s new strategy to stabilize Iraq.

Some 60 percent of all US military equipment destined for Iraq goes
through the territory or airspace of Turkey, a Muslim ally and member
of NATO. If this route to Iraq were restricted or closed entirely,
the ability of the United States to effectively combat the insurgency
and violent militias in Iraq would be impaired. The Erdoðan government
could also come under domestic pressure to restrict US use of the
air base at Incirlik in southern Turkey to re-supply American troops
in Afghanistan.

In the last several years, Turkey has begun to address the Armenian
issue more openly, recently opening up to scholars Ottoman archives
from the period. Erdoðan offered in 2005 to set up an international
commission of historians to examine the Armenian issue and deliver its
findings to the world community. In addition, motivated by Turkey’s
negotiations to join the European Union, a lively internal debate has
begun within Turkish society. In March 2006, a major international
conference devoted to the fate of the Armenians was held in Istanbul —
a development unthinkable a few years ago.

Rather than taking steps that will inflame popular opinion in
Turkey and undercut this process of greater openness, Congress and
the White House should work together to press Turkey and Armenia to
take concrete steps to promote bilateral reconciliation and regional
security. In particular, the United States should press Armenia to
make a more vigorous effort to resolve the Nagorno-Karabakh border
dispute with neighboring Azerbaijan. At the same time, Turkey should
be encouraged to alter Article 301 of the penal code, a broad law
that restricts free speech and press by making it a crime to insult
Turkish identity. Turkey should also take additional steps to address
the Armenian issue more openly.

These moves could pave the way for an opening of the Turkish-Armenian
border, closed since l993. Both sides would benefit from such a move.

Opening the border would enable Armenia to reduce its current
economic isolation and dependence on Russia and Iran. It would
also open new possibilities for Armenia to participate in regional
economic cooperation and energy initiatives from which it has so far
been excluded. In addition, it would remove an important obstacle in
Turkey’s relations with the European Union.

When it comes to US-Turkish relations as well as Turkish-Armenian
relations, all parties benefit by steps that promote reconciliation
rather than confrontation.

(F. Stephen Larrabee holds the Chair in European Security at the
RAND Corporation, Suat Kýnýklýoglu is head of the Ankara office of
the German Marshall Fund.)

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