*ARPA INSTITUTE*
18106 Miranda St., Tarzana CA 91356 . PHONE/FAX (818) 881-0010
24 B, Baghramian, Mech. Inst. Bldg. of ASc, 3rd flr, Yerevan, Armenia.
Tel:(374 2)545538
(39), Fax:151167**
Presents : Lecture/Seminar
By *Dr. Joseph A Kéchichian**, *
*"Can Arab Monarchies Endure a Fourth War In The Persian Gulf?"*
*Wednesday**, March 28, 2007 @ 7:30PM*
*Merdinian Auditorium*
13330 Riverside Dr., Sherman Oaks, CA 91423 **
Directions: On 101 FY Exit Woodman, go North 1 block, turn Right on
Riverside Dr.
*Abstract:** * The main topic of the lecture will be* *the inevitable
nuclearization of Iran and how that may usher in a permanent shift in the
regional balance of power of the Persian Gulf. The presentation will attempt
to answer questions relevant to Armenia, because of potential spill-over
effects throughout the region. In new regional confrontations that may draw
Turkey into indirect action, what occurs in Iran, or elsewhere in the Gulf
area will have an impact on Armenia. Among the many concerns that the
presentation will address are: What will the burden of a nuclear Iran be on
small and medium size countries? How have conservative Arab Monarchies in
the Persian Gulf withered tribute and time to three major wars as they
protected common interests for the past twenty-five years? If in the past,
Arab Gulf monarchs cajoled Iran and Iraq and, when that failed, aligned
themselves with World powers to preserve and protect their regimes, can they
address new challenges likewise? Can savvy rulers prevent a fourth regional
war before the first decade of the 21st century is out in the aftermath of
the 2003 US-led invasion of Iraq? Can they prevent a similarly argued call
for regime change in the Islamic Republic? Can they protect vulnerable
societies from more harm or will the Gulf Cooperation Council states hide
behind "spillover" fears and, by doing so, postpone the inevitable reckoning
that their rapidly evolving nations demand of paternalistic leaders? Will
domestic tensions, regional upheavals, and international competition prevent
them from applying tested methods to survive? Ultimately, how long will
savvy Gulf monarchs succeed in deferring political and socioeconomic
reforms, as they prepare for the tangible repercussions of what could well
be yet another war looming over the horizon?**
*Dr. Joseph A Kéchichian* is the CEO of Kéchichian & Associates, LLC, a
consulting partnership that provides analysis on the Arabian/Persian Gulf
region, specializing in the domestic and regional concerns of Bahrain, Iran,
Iraq, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and the
Yemen. He received a doctorate in Foreign Affairs from the University of
Virginia in 1985, where he also taught (1986-1988), and assumed the
assistant deanship in international studies (1988-1989). In the summer of
1989, he was a Hoover Fellow at Stanford University. 1990-96, he was an
Associate Political Scientist at the RAND Corporation, and a lecturer at the
University of California in Los Angeles. 1998-01, he was a fellow at UCLA’s
Gustav E. von Grunebaum Center for Near Eastern Studies, where he held a
grant to compose Succession in Saudi Arabia, [New York: Palgrave (2001) and
Beirut and London: Dar Al Saqi, 2002, 2003 [2nd ed] (for the Arabic
translation)]. Dr. Kéchichian published Political Participation and
Stability in the Sultanate of Oman, Dubai: Gulf Research Center, 2005, Oman
and the World: The Emergence of an Independent Foreign Policy, Santa
Monica: RAND (1995), and edited A Century in Thirty Years: Shaykh Zayed
and the United Arab Emirates, Washington, D.C.: The Middle East Policy
Council (2000), as well as Iran, Iraq, and the Arab Gulf States, New
York: Palgrave
(2001). In 2003, he co-authored (with Prof. R. Hrair Dekmejian) The Just
Prince: A Manual of Leadership (London: Saqi Books), that includes a full
translation of the Sulwan al-Muta` by Muhammad Ibn Zafar al-Siqilli. He has
just completed two new volumes, on Power and Succession in Arab Monarchies
[on a Smith Richardson Foundation grant], and A King for All Seasons: Saudi
Arabia Under Faysal, that will be published in 2007. He is the author of
numerous essays, a frequent participant on radio and television programs (
e.g. MacNeil/Lehrer News Hour and various BBC programs). He is a frequent
traveler to the Gulf region and is fluent in Arabic, Armenian, English,
French, Italian, Turkish, and is learning Persian.
For more Information Please call Dr. Hagop Panossian at (818) 586-9660 **
From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress
