EurasiaNet, NY
March 8 2007

ARMENIAN OPPOSITION DIVIDED AHEAD OF ELECTION
Emil Danielyan 3/08/07

Armenia’s leading opposition parties have failed to join forces for
upcoming parliamentary elections, in what most local commentators
view as good news for President Robert Kocharian and his political
allies. The multitude of opposition candidates and persisting mutual
mistrust among top opposition leaders are thought to make it easier
for the presidential camp to retain control of the Armenian
parliament.

The elections, scheduled for May 12, will be a rehearsal of a more
important presidential ballot due early next year. There are strong
indications that Kocharian, who is completing his second and final
term in office, plans to hand over power to his influential Defense
Minister Serge Sarkisian and remain in government in another
capacity. Victory in the legislative polls is seen as a key element
of this putative scenario. Analysts say a fragmented opposition will
have serious trouble thwarting its realization.

"In effect, the opposition has decided not to participate in the
elections, as participating independently means creating favorable
conditions for the reproduction of the current regime," the Yerevan
newspaper 168 Zham editorialized last week.

The leaders of the country’s three largest opposition parties think
otherwise. Those are Kocharian’s two main challengers in the 2003
presidential election, Stepan Demirchian and Artashes Geghamian, and
former Parliamentary Speaker Artur Baghdasarian, whose Country of Law
Party was expelled from Kocharian’s governing coalition last year.
[For details, see the Eurasia Insight archive]. Their conflicting
presidential ambitions are what seem to have precluded the
establishment of electoral alliances both among themselves and with
other major opposition groups.

Aram Abrahamian, editor of the Aravot daily, also sees "pragmatic"
motives behind their refusal to cooperate with other opposition
forces. "Those parties that think they can overcome the 5 percent
vote barrier [for entering parliament] are not interested in uniting
with anyone," he wrote on March 3.

Of all Armenian opposition politicians, former parliamentary speaker
Baghdasarian, 38, has clearly attracted the greatest interest from
the West, owing to his relatively young age, populist appeal and
increasingly pro-Western discourse. According to some opposition
sources, United States officials have encouraged him to team up with
other pro-Western opposition groups, notably the radical Republic
Party of former Prime Minister Aram Sarkisian (no relation to the
defense minister). Both Sarkisian and Baghdasarian visited Washington
in late February to meet US administration officials and lawmakers.
But the ambitious ex-speaker made it clear shortly before the trip
that his party will go it alone. "In artificial alliances, jealousy
is stronger than love," he explained at a news conference in Yerevan.

Demirchian, who claims to have been robbed of victory in the last
presidential election, showed greater readiness to form an alliance
with Sarkisian’s Republic and three other opposition parties, but on
conditions that were rejected by the latter. Those reportedly
included a demand that the would-be bloc pick Demirchian as its
undisputed leader and commit to endorsing his 2008 presidential bid.

In the event, the four parties failed to unite even without
Demirchian. Last-ditch attempts by their leaders to cut a
pre-election deal failed on February 27 for reasons that are still
not fully clear. The participants of the talks have refrained from
publicly blaming each other for the flop. But one of them, Armenia’s
US-born former Foreign Minister Raffi Hovannisian, is privately
accused by other oppositionists of scuttling the deal by staking a
leadership claim.

Vazgen Manukian, a veteran opposition figure who was also involved in
the talks, believes that contesting the elections in this situation
makes no sense. "It’s like taking on a regular army with a private
militia," Manukian told EurasiaNet just days after his National
Democratic Union, one of Armenia’s oldest opposition parties, decided
to boycott the vote. He argued that only a "broad-based opposition
movement" would have a chance to stave off what he expects will be
massive electoral fraud.

But Republic Party leader Sarkisian, the Kocharian administration’s
most uncompromising opponent, is far less pessimistic on this score,
while sharing Manukian’s disappointment with the opposition discord.
"There are real possibilities of achieving serious political changes
and tangible results in Armenia," Sarkisian said in a EurasiaNet
interview.

Sarkisian indicated that his party will be seeking not to win the
polls (which he, too, claims will be rigged) but to use them for
launching a campaign of street protests aimed at toppling the
government. "I don’t exclude that a number of opposition forces will
hold joint rallies right before and after the elections," he said.
"Those joint rallies will attract large numbers of people."

Sarkisian’s closest potential allies are supporters of former
President Levon Ter-Petrosian, most of them grouped around the former
ruling Armenian National Movement (ANM). They say a repeat of serious
fraud, which has marred just about every election held in Armenia
since independence, could lead opposition heavyweights like
Demirchian and Baghdasarian to join anti-government rallies. "At some
point, the opposition will be forced to unite," the ANM chairman,
Ararat Zurabian, told journalists on March 2.

But with many Armenians apathetic and cynical about politics, the
question is whether the opposition can mobilize a mass pro-democracy
movement. Its most recent attempt to emulate the 2003 "Rose
Revolution" in neighboring Georgia failed almost three years ago,
after a crackdown on street protests against the election of
President Kocharian. [For details, see the Eurasia Insight archive].

The Kocharian camp, meanwhile, looks increasingly self-confident,
buoyed by its overwhelming control of election commissions and the TV
airwaves as well as vast financial resources. The Republican Party of
Armenia, the biggest government force controlled by Defense Minister
Sarkisian, is already trying to capitalize on its grip on most
central and local government bodies in order to win the largest
number of parliament seats. Also eyeing a strong showing is the
Prosperous Armenia Party of Gagik Tsarukian, the country’s arguably
wealthiest businessman close to Kocharian. Over the past year,
Tsarukian seems to have attracted a substantial following thanks to
supposed charitable work which critics deem wholesale vote buying.

According to unconfirmed media reports, the two parties have already
agreed to form a coalition government after the elections. [For
details, see the Eurasia Insight archive].

Editor’s Note: Emil Danielyan is a Yerevan-based journalist and
political analyst.