Agency WPS
DEFENSE and SECURITY (Russia)
March 7, 2007 Wednesday

WHAT AWAITS AZERBAIJAN IN A CLASH BETWEEN THE UNITED STATES AND
IRAN?;
Experts refuse to hazard a guess

by H. Gasym

AZERBAIJANI EXPERTS REFUSE TO SPECULATE ON THE EFFECT THE AMERICAN
WAR ON IRAN WILL HAVE ON THE SITUATION WITH THE CASPIAN SEA STATUS
AND NAGORNO-KARABAKH CONFLICT RESOLUTION; The Azerbaijanis do not
know what to expect from the American invasion of Iran.

The possibility of a war between the United States and Iran is the
talk of the day. For some reason, practically nobody is speaking of
what military action of the Americans, Azerbaijan’s strategic
partners, may mean for Azerbaijan itself. Will it help the status of
the Caspian Sea or the resolution of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict?
Or will it advance the Armenian-American rapprochement? Traditionally
enough, officials of the Azerbaijani Foreign Ministry decline
comments and refuse to speculate. Hazar Ibragim, Chief of the Foreign
Ministry’s Directorate of Information Policy and Press, only says
that the Foreign Ministry does not want another conflict in the
region.

Milli Mejlis deputy, Jamil Gasanly, points out that the potential of
negotiations with Iran is not yet exhausted.

Neither does Gasanly expect the installation of a new regime in
Tehran to have any effect on the Armenian-American relations which
are already fairly close. "Armenia is ahead of all other counties in
the southern part of the Caucasus in US aid programs," the lawmaker
said.

Political scientist Fikret Sadyhov thinks that the Americans’
appearance in Iran will lead to the installation of a democratic
government. "But not even that will facilitate solutions to the
problems of the Caspian status or Karabakh conflict resolution,"
Sadyhov shrugged. "The Americans display dual standards in the
Karabakh conflict resolution and force their will on us. Some changes
in the US foreign policy are nevertheless possible, and relations
between Azerbaijan and Iran may be somewhat corrected. It may have
positive results, but I’m not sure that the problems will be solved
any time soon."

Speaking of the future of Armenian-American relations, Sadyhov
recalled that Washington regularly issues statements on supporting
Azerbaijani territorial integrity, but these are only words, nothing
more. "All the same, I do not expect any serious changes in
Armenian-American relations," he said.

Source: Ekho (Baku), March 2, 2007, EV