Armenian paper looks at parties’ chances in forthcoming elections

Hayots Ashkharh, Yerevan
6 Mar 07

Armenian newspaper Hayots Ashkharh has classified 27 parties running
in the election accordindg to their chances to win parliamentary
seats. The paper named six favourites – three pro-government and
three opposition parties that would very likely to win seats in
parliament. The following is the text of the report by Armen
Tsaturyan in Armenian newspaper Hayots Ashkharh published on 6 March
headlined "Parties form four groups"

Twenty-seven political parties and one bloc wish to stand in the
parliamentary election.

It should be noted that 28 is not a large number because we have about
70 parties. These 27 parties and one bloc can be divided into four
groups.

The first group is the one that consists of the six major contenders;
the second group comprises parties that have chances to overcome the
5-per-cent threshold [required for entering parliament]; the third
group comprises those who run under the Olympic Games slogan
"participation is that really matters"; and the fourth group consists
of those who plan to stir up trouble or simply help others.

We believe that the list of the main contenders includes the three
pro-government parties – the RPA [Republican Party of Armenia], the PA
[Prosperous Armenia party] and the ARFD [Armenian Revolutionary
Federation – Dashnaktsutyun], and three opposition parties – the PPA
[People’s Party of Armenia], the National Unity party and the Orinats
Yerkir party. The Repbulican Party of Armenia and the Prosperous
Armenia have the greatest chances among these parties.

However, if the RPA’s results are predictable, the Prosperous
Armenia’s the results would greatly depend on how the race progress
for this party. It is hard to predict one month ahead of the race how
the PA’s supporters is going to behave on the voting day. As for the
chances of the pro-government ARFD and the three opposition forces –
PPA, National Unity and Orinats Yerkir – they all currently have some
10 per cent. Each of these parties would try to do everything they
can, but only the Orinats Yerkir would go to the end, refusing to be
content with modest results.

Some of the parties in the second group – the ULP [United Labour
Party], People’s Party and the Heritage party – have chances to
overcome the 5-per-cent threshold.

The third group consists of what can be called "Olympic athletes," who
have no serious chances to reach the 5-per-cent threshold. What they
are going to do is to make maximum efforts in certain election
districts to help party leaders get elected under the
first-past-the-post system, or simply promote their
ideologies. Khosrov Harutyunyan’s Christian Democratic Revival party,
Manuk Gasparyan’s Democratic Path, Shavarsh Kocharyan’s National
Democratic Party, Aram G. Sargsyan’s Democratic Party of Armenia,
Hovhannes Hovhannisyan’s Liberal Progressive Party, the Pan-Armenian
National Movement, the Communist Party, Samvel Babayan’s Dashink, and
the Republic party are among them. The last three do not consider
themselves to be "Olymipic athletes," something that in the case of
the Communist Party can be explained by "age syndrome." But such a
loss of reality is incomprehensible to regular folks in cases of the
Dashink and the Republic party.

The fourth group includes parties which have absolutely no chances to
be elected under either the first-past-the-post or the proportional
system, neither do they wish to participate in the race under the
"Olympic system" because they have nothing to say. They are entering
the race with the goal to support other powerful forces, or – which is
even worse – to play a part in a play staged by foreign powers. The
pro-Western Impeachment bloc as well as the New Times party, a
specialist in staging "shows" that are allegedly ordered by Moscow,
represent the extreme ends of this poorly disguised army of
"lobbyists." The Marxist Party, the Progressive Party of Armenia, the
National Unity, the Youth Party and some others will be "milder"
versions of those mentioned above, with the only difference that they
are orientated towards Armenia and not towards foreign powers.

It is not the programme or ideological principles of the parties that
would be in the core of the forthcoming race but the struggle for
power between the major political forces in one camp and the
externally created "fifth column," which will be used to influence
Armenia in the 12 May voting.

The clash of these extremely opposite trends is inevitable; therefore,
the forthcoming election promises to be a serious test for Armenia and
its political system.
From: Baghdasarian