Military actions around Karabakh endanger entire region

Davit Babayan.
07-03-2007 17:15:14 – KarabakhOpen

`The developments related to Iran are highly important for our
country, which borders with Iran. If a war ignites between the United
States and Iran, it will shatter stability in the entire region,’ said
Davit Babayan, political scientist, in an interview with
KarabakhOpen.com. He thinks Iran has an important position in the Near
East. `An overview of the distribution of forces in the Near East and
Central Asia shows that the United States has become weaker in Central
Asia. It is true that the United States presently controls Afghanistan
and is on good terms with Pakistan and the countries of the Arab
peninsula. The Americans also control Iraq, Turkey is also a
U.S. ally. In the South Caucasus, the U.S. is strong in Georgia and to
some degree in Azerbaijan. However, Baku-Ceyhan designed for the
Central Asian, more exactly the Kazakh oil, Central Asia is of special
importance to Washington. Control over Central Asia will enable the
United States to stop Chinese expansion which needs Central Asia for
energy security. The point is that Chine needs to import about 200
million tons of oil annually. Peking could get oil from Central Asia
and the Caucasus but not from Arab countries because for the oil of
Arab countries Chine would have to cross the territory controlled by
the American navy. It is evident that the optimal link between the
South Caucasus and Central Asia is Iran. If the United States managed
to get control of Iran, it will weaken the influence of China in
Central Asia which can afterwards be linked to India, which is China’s
competitor.

Therefore, establishment of control over Iran is vitally important for
the U.S. considering its status of a world power. In addition, all the
developments should take place in a limited period, until the year
2012. By this time a new security system will have been created in the
world, neutralizing Russia and China. And this is impossible without
control over Iran,’ Davit Babayan said.

The political scientist thinks the Americans will have to seek methods
for establishing control over Iran. There is one `but’ ` Iran defies
the rules of the United States, which destabilizes the situation to
some degree because the time limit and Iran’s resistance may make
Washington use force. This is the most dangerous way. If Iran
continues the methodology of Iraq and Yugoslavia, it will probably
lose the war, the political scientist thinks. The most undesirable
but probable variant is if Iran reacts to pressure from the United
States with terrorist attacks in the territory of the United
States. It may lead to unforeseeable consequences.

`The stance of Azerbaijan worries us too, especially that the
formation of the Azerbaijani nation is not over yet, and they still
believe in ethnic myths. In this context, the idea of unification of
the so-called South Azerbaijan and North Azerbaijan acquires a special
meaning to Baku. It is possible only in case the United States attacks
Iran, and Azerbaijan will certainly support the United States in
return for promises of new territories. Considering this, as well as
the expressions of pan-Turkism in Azerbaijan and Turkey, these
developments may be dangerous for us. We may only hope that there will
be no war,’ said