"ZERKALO": WHATEVER THE CASE MAY BE, ARMENIA WILL BE LOSER, IF USA ATTACKS IRAN
R. Mirkadirov

Ïðaâî Âûaîða, Azerbaijan
Democratic Azerbaijan
March 10 2007

Current stage of peace talks on regulation of Garabagh conflict was
discussed in Washington by Minister of Foreign Affairs of Armenia,
Vardan Oskanyan and US Secretary of State, Condoleezza Rice.

As information and press section of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of
Armenia informed, in the course of the meeting bilateral relations were
also focused on: realization of program "Challenges of millennium",
forthcoming parliamentary elections in Armenia, Armenian-Turkish
relations and USA’s mediation in this direction. We should remind
here that soon our Minister of Foreign Affairs, Elmar Mamadyarov,
will leave for Washington to meet US Secretary of State.

Most likely, official information in this connection will be
distinguished with the same scantiness. However, it is not difficult
to guess what issues are discussed by C. Rice, E. Mamadyarov and
V. Oskanyan. First of all we may say that Washington is making
last attempt to regulate Armenian-Azerbaijani and Armenian-Turkish
relations, at least, this year. Not long time ago, high rank
representatives of political and military leadership of Turkey visited
Washington. At least slight warming of relations between these 3 states
taking into account aggravation of situation caused by possible action
against Iran, is vitally important for Washington.

The matter is that permanent members of UN Security Council (Russia,
China, France and UK) having supported first resolution of Security
Council on Iran, initiated by USA, have deprived themselves of
any chance for manoeuvre. It is hard to imagine that anyone ever
believed that Iran would bend in UN Security Council’s will. Now
permanent members of UN Security Council should either support,
of course with minor reservations, new tougher resolution proposed
by USA, which will be ignored by Iran once adopted, or to recognize
their own weakness before Tehran’s regime. In first case USA will
make pressure on Iran with "compelled" support on the part of UN
Security Council, precisely, Russia and China, in the second case,
Washington will blame Moscow and Beijing for inconsequence starting
to act in alliance with London and Paris.

"USA’s attacking Iran will take place, but the question is what way
will it take place?", political scientist, Levon Melik-Shakhnazaryan,
who can’t be suspected in pro-American sentiments, declared at press
conference in Yerevan. It was informed by Panarmenian.net.

Accordingly to political scientist, Washington did too much for this
to go back.

Accordingly to him, USA has developed 3 directions of actions. "Fist
direction – "punctuated bombing" accordingly to method used
in Belgrade, when industrial objects get out of the order and
infrastructure suffers destruction. Second – direct land invasion
just like Iraqi scenario, and at last, third direction, "traditional"
– to cause unstable situation inside the country, making Turkish
speaking citizens and Persian speaking ones quarrel and to establish
pro-American regime", he stressed.

Armenian political scientist said that in last case the role of
Azerbaijan increases, on the borders of which Turkish speaking
population of Iran is living numbering "12-16 mln.". "Upcoming visit
of Minister of Foreign Affairs of Azerbaijan, Elmar Mamadyarov,
to USA is connected with possible participation of Azerbaijan in
solving of Iranian issue", Melik-Shakhnazaryan stressed.

Political scientist also pointed out that USA’s allies for Iranian
campaign may be Israel, Azerbaijan and Georgia. Armenia will under no
circumstances join it as authorities of the country are not suicides.

If Baku joins Iranian campaign then Washington will grant bonus to
Azerbaijan not in the form of regulation of Nagorni Garabagh conflict
in favor of Azerbaijan, but in the form of part of Iranian territory,
as Armenian lobby in USA is strong enough.

However Armenia, as political scientist thinks, will be loser whatever
the case may be. "No matter what USA does regarding Iran, isolation of
Armenia will be complete. Unfortunately, this way Armenia can change
nothing. We have very influential diaspora, which should take steps
to prevent complete isolation of the country", said he adding that
US’s attitude towards Armenia is the most loyal. "The fact that only
Armenia is permitted to have commercial affairs with Iran can’t be
disregarded", said Melik-Shakhnazaryan.

However, Iran won’t be in somebody’s "debt". Political scientist
underlines that Iranian missiles may freely reach the above states
at the same time Americans need military basis on Middle East. "Even
today Tehran has drawn up plan concerning 900 "objects under attack"
in Israel, Azerbaijan and Georgia. However, not only Armenia can face
humanitarian disaster but also Azerbaijan. No economy will stand
such flow of refugees, especially such economy as Armenian. Don’t
forget that population of Iran is 80 mln., half of which living at
the border with Armenia, Azerbaijan and Turkey", Melik-Shakhnazaryan
stressed. Armenian political scientist doesn’t rule out even fantastic
variant of developments, that is, possible conquer of Baku by Iranian
military forces.

Omitting some "trifles", such as number of Azerbaijanis living in Iran
and Melik-Shakhnazaryan’s oblivion concerning active military actions
of allies of Armenians – Kurds – against Iranian governmental forces,
then everything is almost truth. As for conquer of Baku by Iran,
Armenian political scientist went too far. It conflicts with Armenian
interests. Land forces of Turkey, commander of which, Ilker Bashbug
visited Azerbaijan, can march up to Baku. However it hardly can meet
Armenia’s interests. If we take seriously Melik-Shakhnazaryan’s saying,
then aggravation of situation brings nothing to Armenia…

–Boundary_(ID_jRZuqfwuU27JPIJXlA1QXQ) —

From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress