TURKEY, AZERBAIJAN AND GEORGIA JOIN IN A MILITARY ECSTASY?
By Gayane MOVSISSIAN

Yerkir.am
March 10, 2007

The process of formation of the military alliance between Turkey,
Azerbaijan and Georgia (this possibility has been widely discussed
in the context of protection of regional oil- and gas pipelines) has
recently emerged in the context of Azerbaijan’s possible accession
to NATO.

This week Baku-based Zerkalo newspaper wrote, referring to diplomatic
sources, that Azerbaijan is in principle ready to address Brussels
with an official request for joining NATO but does not do so because
there are no security guarantees. NATO gives no security guarantees
to applicant countries in the 3-5 year period when membership in the
organization is being negotiated. Baku is afraid that the "unfriendly
countries" surrounding Azerbaijan – Russia, Armenia and Iran – will
exert additional mechanisms to pressure Azerbaijan.

In such cases, the issue of security guarantees for NATO applicant
states is usually solved through a bilateral treaty for military and
political cooperation with USA. However, USA has limited possibilities
for such a treaty with Azerbaijan. "Article 907 of the Freedom Support
Act does not allow violating the parity between military assistance
to Armenia and Azerbaijan.

Today US can provide military assistance to Azerbaijan indirectly
through various NATO programs. However, this will not be sufficient
in case a crisis situation arises," Zerkalo’s source stated. This
is why several alternatives for settling this issue are currently
under discussion.

The first option is connected with Washington’s expectations of
settling the Karabagh conflict in the first half of 2007, an option
that is not likely to take place.

The second option would be signing a treaty that would allow temporary
dislocation of "foreign primarily American troops" in Azerbaijan in
case of " threats to the pipelines and oil fields". However, this
option is not 100% viable either.

The third option is that another NATO member state, for instance
Turkey, could be the guarantor of Azerbaijan’s security. Zerkalo’s
source indicated that active negotiations are underway in this
direction. A package of treaties is under development to regulate
military and political cooperation between Azerbaijan and Turkey on
the one hand, and Turkey and Georgia on the other.

The recent exchange of high-ranking military delegations between Baku
and Ankara is connected with preparation of these treaties. However,
this option has its drawbacks as well. Turkey’s increased military
presence in Azerbaijan can result in aggravation of relations
between Turkey and Russia on the one hand, and Turkey and Iran on
the other. This goes against Turkey’s interests because the latter
depends on the energy resources of Russia and Iran. Besides, not all
western countries are interested in increased Turkish presence in the
South Caucasus. Armenia would be the first country not to be happy
with Turkey’s increased military presence in the region because the
latter’s policies pose a direct threat to Armenia’s national security.

The possible consequences of military actions against Iran are equally
disturbing for Armenia and the region in general. The Russian experts
comment on Pentagon’s plans to explode Iran from within in a book
titled "Introduction to the Future. The World in 2020." Commenting
on Pentagon’s plans to use 25-30 million Azeris living in Iran to
divide the country the Russian experts assume that if something like
this takes place, Turkey will emerge as the only stabilizing force
in the region. At the same time, the Turks will not be able to avoid
interference in a conflict in which their kin nation is involved.

They would have to take up the military control of Southern Azerbaijan.

Therefore, irrespective of how this will be formulated in terms of
treaties, a united military and political space involving Turkey,
Northern Cyprus, Southern Azerbaijan and the Republic of Azerbaijan
will emerge with a population of 110 million people. Turkmenistan,
including Turk-populated regions of Iran and Azerbaijan, as well as
Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan and Uzbek-populated Mazari-Shariff
region of Afghanistan will inevitably join such an alliance. In
other words, Turkey’s foreign policy vector will change its European
direction and move towards the Caspian region, Caucasus and the
Central Asia.

There is no need to speak about the consequences of such developments.