EurasiaNet, NY
March 16 2007

BUSH ADMINISTRATION TRIES TO PREVENT POSSIBLE RUPTURE WITH TURKEY
Joshua Kucera 3/16/07

The Bush administration is publicly opposing a resolution pending in
the US Congress that would officially recognize the mass killings of
Armenians during the Ottoman era as genocide. The administration’s
opposition is grounded in concerns that Turkey could retaliate by
refusing to cooperate with the US war in Iraq.

Such resolutions have been routinely proposed in Congress, but one
has never passed. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive].
This year, however, legislators appear more likely than ever to adopt
a resolution. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, a California Democrat, is
on record as supporting passage of the resolution. The murder of
Armenian-Turkish journalist Hrant Dink in January also seems to have
influenced the attitudes of some US representatives. [For background
see the Eurasia Insight archive]. A vote on the resolution could
occur in April.

At a Congressional hearing on March 15, representatives from the US
Department of State and Department of Defense said passage of the
resolution would unnecessarily inflame anti-American sentiment in
Turkey. The resolution "would undercut those voices emerging in
Turkey who call for a truthful exploration of those events in pursuit
of Turkey’s reconciliation with its own past, and with Armenia," said
Daniel Fried, assistant secretary of state for European and Eurasian
affairs. "Our fear is that passage of any such resolution would close
minds and harden hearts."

The public backlash in Turkey could be so strong that the Turkish
government would be forced to act, perhaps by closing or restricting
US access to Incirlik Air Base, a key transportation hub for US
operations in Iraq and Afghanistan, restricting use of the
Turkey-Iraq land border, or allowing fewer over-flight rights, Fried
said.

A genocide resolution would surely hamper US military operations in
Iraq and Afghanistan, asserted Daniel Fata, deputy assistant
secretary of defense for Europe and NATO. "Passage of the resolution
would inflame nationalist and anti-American sentiment [in Turkey] at
a time when the Turkish public already has a very low opinion of the
United States," he said. "Turkey’s contribution to the global war on
terrorism and US strategic objectives in the region is significant –
it would all be at risk. More broadly, relations with a crucial NATO
ally would suffer a serious and lasting blow, [undermining] our
ability to achieve our near- and longer-term goals in the Middle
East."

Fried and Fata’s comments before the Europe Subcommittee of the House
Committee on Foreign Affairs came shortly after Secretary of State
Condoleezza Rice and Secretary of Defense Robert Gates sent identical
letters to members of Congress opposing the resolution. The letters
noted that Turkey retaliated against France after the French
parliament passed a resolution in October recognizing the Armenian
killings as genocide, cutting all military contacts and withdrawing
from negotiations on defense contracts. [For background see the
Eurasia Insight archive].

In Fata’s written testimony to the subcommittee, he listed various
contracts that US defense-related companies are pursuing with Turkey,
totaling several billions of dollars.

US officials stated that, although Armenia and the large Armenian
diaspora in the United States steadfastly support the adoption of a
resolution, Armenians in Turkey oppose it. "We hear from members of
the 60,000-70,000 strong Armenian-Turkish community that any such
resolution would raise popular emotions so dramatically as to
threaten their personal security," Fried said in his testimony.

The Turkish government, lobbying against the resolution, is making
the same point. Public relations officials for the Turkish Embassy
have circulated newspaper editorials quoting Dink as being against
such resolutions. "The winning of the empathy and compassion of the
Turkish population is far more important than the adoption of
Armenian resolutions in hundreds of parliaments elsewhere," said
Dink, quoted in an editorial in the Baltimore Sun.

Editor’s Note: Joshua Kucera is a Washington, DC,-based freelance
writer who specializes in security issues in Central Asia, the
Caucasus and the Middle East.