GEORGIA: ABKHAZ PAPER ANALYSES COMPOSITION OF NEW PARLIAMENT

Nuzhnaya Gazeta, Sukhumi
20 Mar 07

Text of an article by Rozita German published in the Abkhaz newspaper
Nuzhnaya Gazeta; subheadings as published

The parliament of the fourth convocation has been elected. It
seems that there was no way to avoid legal proceedings, though
according to data available on Monday [19 March], the only complaint
filed with the central electoral commission [CEC] was that of Emma
Gamisonia. According to the preliminary results, Gamisonia was defeated
by Rita Lolua in constituency No 3. CEC head Batal Tabaghua said that
Gamisonia’s complaint concerned "mobile ballot boxes" and added that
it had yet to be reviewed.

Tabaghua was quick to thank the candidates for the respectful attitude
they showed towards each other and said: "There are no complaints
that could influence the results of the pre-election campaign
[as published]."

Voter turnout in the second round of the poll just exceeded 50 per
cent, 3 per cent higher than in the first round. The total number
of registered voters is 128,000. Some R2.3m was spent from the state
budget on organizing the elections while the CEC spent an additional
R200,000 of its own funds.

And they are still there

Only 10 MPs from the previous convocation have retained their
seats in the new parliament. They are: the experienced chair of the
legislation committee, Vladimir Nachach-Ogly, speaker Nugzar Ashuba,
deputy speaker Albert Ovsepyan, Vyacheslav Tsugba, Garri Samanba,
Pavel Leshchuk, Vyacheslav Vardania, Yuriy Kereselidze, Beslan Jopua
and Valeriy Kondakov.

Incumbents Konstantin Ozgan, Beslan Butba, Ilya Gamisonia, Aslan
Bartsits and other of their colleagues "fell out" of the race already
in the first round of voting.

Clearly the "old guard" will try to set the tone in the new parliament.

There is a high probability that Nugzar Ashuba will be re-elected
as parliament speaker. It will be interesting to see who else is
nominated for the post.

Ratio of women to men: 3/32

Television presenter Irina Agrba, who won in the first round, was
joined after the runoff poll by fellow women Rita Lolua and Amra
Agrba. The latter managed to get by former Aytayra [pro-government
movement] member Vadim Smyr in the first round and fend off
pro-government candidate Rauf Tsimtsba in the second. This is perhaps
the most surprising victory given that Amra is younger than any other
member of parliament. Let us recall that in the previous parliament
there were only two women Emma Gamisonia and Marina Bartsits, both
of whom were cast to the side this time. And though the number of
women has increased by one, we can hardly expect the formation of
any kind of women’s lobby because these women are too different –
they come from directly opposing camps.

Ethnic composition

The authorities were quite concerned about the following: "what
will Russia say if there are no Russians in the parliament?" and
"we must not push away the diaspora; we must have representatives
of the diaspora". These issues were not handled very delicately in
behind-the-scenes discussions. At the end of the day we have received
a parliament that both qualitatively and quantitatively has almost
exactly the same ethnic breakdown as the last one. There are three
Russians – Kondakov, Vasilev and Leshchuk; three Armenians – Matosyan,
Mayromyan and Ovsepyan; two Georgians – Kereselidze and Ubiria and
27 Abkhaz.

It will be interesting to see whether the representatives of ethnic
minorities will stand up for the interests of their respective
communities in parliament or whether their presence will again be
nominal, as, with rare exception, they exist only to make up the
numbers during votes.

Breakdown of political affiliation

The pro-government parties United Abkhazia, Amtsakhara and Aytayra
identified the candidates they supported before the elections,
which made it significantly easier to make political forecasts. The
[winning] candidates supported by the government included Amtsakhara
co-chair Vladimir Nachach-Ogly, who, as you will recall, was nominated
in this election by the Communist Party, Irina Agrba, a member of
the political council of the Aytayra movement, Communist Vyacheslav
Tsugba, speaker Nugzar Ashuba, member of the political council of
Amtsakhara Zaur Adleyba as well as Pavel Leshchuk, Garri Samanba,
Lev Shamba, Beslan Jopua, Omar Kvarchia, Soner Gogua, Talikh Khvatysh,
Guram Gumba, Lev Avidzba, Yuriy Zukhba and Vyacheslav Vardania. They
have an absolute majority in parliament.

The opposition lost its spark after the first round. Almost all
opposition candidates lost in the runoff poll. Those who did make it
into parliament were Forum of People’s Unity co-chair Daur Arshba,
former agriculture minister and former vice-presidential candidate
Vitaliy Smyr, head of the Aidgylara political and public movement
Valeriy Kvarchia, former head of Gulripshi and Sukhumi [as published]
Adgur Kharazia, as well as Sergey Matosyan, Rita Lolua and Valeriy
Bganba.

Those who fell to their pro-government opponents in the second round
were: Akhra Bzhania, Vitaliy Gabnia, Almasbey Kchach, Marina Bartsits,
Emma Khojava [also known as Emma Khodzhaa] and the wife of the former
president [Vladislav Ardzinba], Svetlana Jergenia.

It is quite probable that a few MPs may emerge as "dark horses". It
is as yet unknown what group they will join up with. However, we
should expect that Batal Kobakhia, the director of the centre for
humanitarian programmes, will retain his independent status.

Predictions

Thus, there was no victory parade for the opposition. We received
a pro-government parliament, though there are a sufficient number
of opposition leaders there to "throw a spanner in the works". In
the opinion of independent observers, the victory of pro-government
candidates in the parliamentary elections indicates not so much that
the authorities wield great influence in society as that they have
powerful administrative resources at their disposal and, furthermore,
that the people do not trust the opposition.

The opposition’s mistake was that, by nominating practically all
former officials whose "achievements" are remembered and "respected"
by the people, it discredited younger candidates. Additionally,
they are associated in public imagination with the old authorities.

We have received a parliament whose composition is of rather
questionable quality. Many pro-government candidates arrived in
office thanks to protest votes and not all of them measure up as
public servants. After all, we have seen them live on television,
some of them even twice. Similarly, Vladimir Nachach-Ogly will again
have to shoulder all the routine work of parliament.

Therefore, there promises to be some political confrontation in
parliament.

However, given its current breakdown, the opposition will hardly be
able to have any significant influence on parliament’s decisions. We
should not expect parliament to scrutinize the actions of the executive
unless pro-government candidates at some point also seek to do so.

Nonetheless, pundits are predicting that the role of the factions in
the current parliament will grow significantly. MPs will inevitably
split up into groups, as this makes it easier to protect one’s
political interests. Observers are keeping a keen eye on those who
do not belong to any of the factions.

There is practically no longer any hope that someone might form a
third, independent faction.

Now is the time for both pro-government and opposition candidates
to be assigned seats on commissions and committees. They will soon
elect a speaker and two deputy speakers. Afterwards we will see how
easy it will be for the public to gain access to MPs and how they
will inform voters about their work.