Azerbaijan seeks US support in Karabakh talks by offering transit of Turkmen
gas
Hayots Ashkharh, Yerevan
24 Mar 07
Text of report entitled: "Azerbaijan’s gas attack on Karabakh
negotiation process" by Vardan Grigoryan published in Armenian
newspaper Hayots Ashharh on 24 March:
Azerbaijani Deputy Foreign Minister Araz Azimov, who recently was in
Brussels, made an unexpected statement that "buying natural gas
directly from Turkmenistan and not via Russia could contribute to the
strengthening of the European Union’s energy security."
The Transcaspian gas pipeline, which is designed to transport part of
the Turkmen gas to Baku along the seabed and further to Europe, has
not been built yet. It looks like that the Azerbaijani foreign
minister is running early by making hasty statements, especially that
the Russian Gazprom has a 25-year agreement with Turkmenistan, plus,
it plans to build the second Turkmenistan-Russia gas pipeline.
This show could have been strange, but on the next day, 22 March,
Azerbaijani Foreign Minister Elmar Mammadyarov and US Secretary of
State Condoleeza Rice signed a memorandum of understanding on
cooperation between the USA and Azerbaijan in Caspian region. It turns
out that Azerbaijan is rushing ahead and making this move to present
the USA with a gift "decorated" with valuable gas during the
Rice-Mammadyarov meeting.
Liberating Europe from the Russian "gas dictate" is among the hottest
tasks of the current American diplomacy. So, by proposing the USA its
"brokerage mission" of offering a "gas alternative" for the Old World
[Europe], Azerbaijan is trying to "link" this "service" with the
Rice-Mammadyarov meeting, the core of which is apparently the Karabakh
conflict settlement.
What is the main goal of Azerbaijan at the current stage when Ilham
Aliyev, who leads that country’s diplomacy, insists that his country
needs another two or three years to reach an "absolute advantage" over
Armenia to resolve the Karabakh issue, and the mediators are keen to
settle the conflict? For its part, Armenia openly says that it agrees
with the principles of the document on the "negotiations table," but
doubts that Azerbaijan is ready to come to an agreement based on those
principles in summer.
We believe this is why the statement about the Transcaspian gas
pipeline for the international community was made on the eve of the
Rice-Mammadyarov meeting. The pipeline does not exist yet but
Azerbaijan’s resolve to build a pipeline that circumvents Russia is
already a fact, and it sheds light on the problems that rose at the
Geneva meeting of Mammadyarov and [Armenian Foreign Minister Vardan]
Oskanyan. Azerbaijan sticks to details to review the negotiation
principles and it desperately needs the support of the United States
for that. And one of the basic issues of the negotiations, as the
Armenian foreign minister reiterated days ago, is the accomplishment
of the NKR [Nagornyy Karabakh republic] people’s right to
self-determination. So, Azerbaijan’s readiness to pump the Turkmen gas
to Azerbaijan via the Transcaspian pipeline instead of doing so
through Russia is a prepayment offered to the US in exchange for a
support in the Armenian-Azerbaijani talks. Azerbaijan is trying to
show its "indispensability" in the Caspian energy resource export
routes, which would allow it to strengthen its positions or even
derail the talks and get away unpunished.
It is becoming clearer that Azerbaijan’s desire to review the document
on the table will be the main obstacle in the way of signing a
framework agreement this summer. Exploiting the prospect for its
economic attractiveness, Azerbaijan will do whatever it takes to gain
more in the forthcoming talks. Meanwhile, by adopting a seemingly
peaceful position, Azerbaijan will try to concentrate the
international community’s pressure on Armenia to get more concessions.
Under these circumstances, it is essential that Armenia not retreat
from the key issues already agreed upon in the "framework agreement."
Armenia should make every effort to ensure that the talks continue
around the already-clarified principles. This would frustrate
Azerbaijan’s revisionist ambitions, and it will have to face the
option that it is to blame for the failed talks.