Agency WPS
What the Papers Say Part A (Russia)
March 27, 2007 Tuesday

ARMENIA IN THE GREAT GAME

by: Avtandil Tsuladze, political scientist

The United States wants an Orange Revolution in Armenia; The Armenian
opposition might try to implement an Orange Revolution scenario in
the upcoming elections. Artur Bagdasarian is trying to make himself
the chief candidate for Orange leader. There are a number of
indications that the United States is keeping a close eye on him.

Armenia is one of Russia’s most important CIS partners, and its most
consistent ally. Will it retain its pro-Russian orientation in the
medium-term future?

Armenia’s presidential election in 2008 could be a political
watershed. President Robert Kocharian will not seek re-election, and
the successor problem is becoming increasingly pressing. A
parliamentary election is scheduled for May 12, 2007, and this will
largely determine the configuration of forces in the lead-up to the
presidential race. Twenty-seven parties and one election bloc have
applied to participate in the parliamentary election, which will use
a proportional voting system. There will be around 1,500 candidates
altogether.

Opinion polls indicate that two political forces are in the lead: the
ruling Armenian Republican Party (ARP) and the recently-established
Prosperous Armenia, headed by a business tycoon named Gagik
Tsarukian. Analysts regard Prosperous Armenia as a pro-government
party.

Support for the opposition isn’t very high. Only three opposition
parties have any real chance of making it into parliament: the
Law-Abiding Country party (led by Artur Bagdasarian), National Unity
(led by Artashes Gegamian), and the People’s Party of Armenia (led by
Stepan Demirchian). There is also the Armenian Revolutionary
Federation, which is considered a pro-government party, but doesn’t
intend to support either the ARP or Prosperous Armenia; it has a
small but stable electorate and a good chance of making it into
parliament.

The suspense in this election focuses on which of the pro-government
parties will score more points. That’s if the election goes calmly,
within constitutional channels. But there’s no ruling out the
possibility that the opposition might try to implement an Orange
Revolution scenario. Artur Bagdasarian is trying to make himself the
chief candidate for Orange leader. There are a number of indications
that the United States is keeping a close eye on him. Bagdasarian’s
articles have been published frequently in the American media, and
during a recent visit to the USA he said a great deal about the need
to "build democracy" in Armenia. Bagdasarian’s main arguments
retransmit America’s political interests in the region. When he calls
on Armenians not to be "imprisoned by the past," he means the
genocide of 1915; he proposes normalizing relations with Turkey,
de-emphasizing the genocide. He also calls for normalizing relations
with Azerbaijan and "resolving the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict on the
basis of reciprocal concession." Bagdasarian says: "Improving
relations with Azerbaijan is essential for our long-term energy
stability, which can only be achieved by diversifying our energy
policy." That reference to "diversification" is aimed against Russia.
So far, Bagdasarian is keeping quiet about how far the concessions
may extend.

Where do American interests come into this? The United States is
interested in the trade routes linking this region to the Middle East
and Asia. The frozen conflicts in the Trans-Caucasus are an obstacle
to establishing transit channels. On the one hand, Armenia is
effectively in a blockade: no communications with Azerbaijan, a
closed border with Turkey, and Georgia closed off since Russia
imposed anti-Georgian sanctions. On the other hand, Armenia may be
regarded as the territory that obstructs many communications in the
region. The American objective is to turn the Trans-Caucasus into an
integrated region controlled by the United States. That’s the point
of the Orange project in Armenia. That’s why Bagdasarian is
portraying himself as a "peacemaker."

It would be naive to think that the Armenian authorities and Armenian
society aren’t concerned about the blockade around their country. The
problem is the price to be paid for lifting it. Former president
Levon Ter-Petrosian was forced to resign after arguing for
substantial concessions on Nagorno-Karabakh and facing resistance
from public opinion and the political establishment. The present
administration, with the help of international mediators, is striving
to find a solution that doesn’t compromise Armenia’s national
interests.

Another sign pointing to the possibility of an Orange Revolution
scenario in Armenia is the fact that the opposition is pedalling the
issue of election fraud. But the configuration of political forces in
Armenia is such that the authorities simply have no objective motives
to rig elections; the pro-government forces are already certain to
win by a large margin. The opposition’s only chance of turning the
situation around in its favor is to claim election fraud. The
examples of Georgia and Ukraine have shown us how this technique can
work. In Georgia, the key factor was Eduard Shevardnadze’s
unpopularity (but Kocharian is the most popular politician in
Armenia); in Ukraine there was a split between the Western and
Eastern regions (but Armenia is a unified country). The opposition’s
only hope lies in the dirty techniques of an Orange Revolution
project.

Experts don’t rule out the possibility that the West (certain circles
in the West) may assist the Armenian opposition by organizing
appropriate media coverage, sending an impressive contingent of
election observers, and so on. A brigade from the BBC will arrive in
Armenia a week before the election. The forces being drawn into this
are substantial. Will they suffice to cause a social explosion in
Armenia? There is no sign of that as yet. But Russia, with an
interest in its stragegic ally’s stable development, needs to monitor
this situation closely. It should also provide Armenia with media
support and send election observers, facilitating legitimate
democratic processes. Armenia will also need our political support.

Source: Izvestia, March 27, 2007, p. 6

Translated by Elena Leonova

From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress