Executive Intelligence Review (EIR), VA
March 27 2007
Iraq’s Other Tragedy: 2 Million Refugees
by Muriel Mirak-Wiessbach
Four years into the war, it is impossible to say how many Iraqis have
died. The occupying forces do not keep such statistics, and the local
authorities are so swamped at the morgues and hospitals, that they
cannot guarantee accurate figures.
Now, there is another category of Iraq War statistics, and it is
somber: the number of Iraqis driven from their homes, and either
displaced internally, or scrambling for refuge in some neighboring
country. Here, too, the statistics are unreliable, since many flee
clandestinely, and do not register in their exile land; but the
dimensions are daunting. According to the United Nations, 727,000
Iraqis have been displaced internally since the February 2006 bombing
of a Shi’ite shrine. About 470,000 have registered with the Ministry
of Displacement and Migration, since the beginning of the war. About
160,000 have sought refuge in the Kurdish region. It is estimated
that the exodus of Iraqis since 2003, is the largest such refugee
stream since the Palestinians were driven off their land in 1948: an
estimated 2 million have fled, and, by the end of this year, that
will rise to 10% of the entire population (today, about 27 million).
The consequences, for both Iraq and the countries to which refugees
have fled, are devastating. For Iraq, it means a further brain drain,
as the most highly qualified members of the workforce flee. For the
host countries, it means enormous economic strains, social tensions,
and, in some cases, religious/ethnic strife.
Syria Under Pressure
The country which has been most overwhelmed by the number of Iraqi
refugees is Syria, followed by Egypt, Jordan, and Iran, then Europe,
and faraway lands like the United States, Canada, and Australia.
Jordan, with 800,000 Iraqis, has halted the inflow. When rumors
spread, in mid-February, that Syria would curb the influx, refugees
organized a demonstration in front of the United Nations High
Commission for Refugees (UNHCR) office in Damascus. The Syrian
government estimated in mid-March that there are already 1.5 million
Iraqis in the country. According to Laurens Jolles, the
representative of the UNHCR in Damascus, somewhere between 10,000 and
40,000 refugees cross the border each month. Other estimates put it
at 50,000 per month.
The crisis there has become so grave that even the Bush
Administration has had to violate its own ban on contacts with Syria,
by sending a State Department representative to talk to government
and UN officials there. After that visit, during which the U.S.
representative also met with the UNHCR personnel, led by António
Guterres, the number of Iraqis to be granted asylum in the U.S. was
raised to 7,000, from 435.
The reasons for the mass exodus should be obvious: First is the
well-grounded fear of being killed randomly, by suicide or car bombs.
Then, there are fears of sectarian violence: Sunnis, particularly
those in any way associated with the Ba’ath Party or former
administration, are political and sectarian targets, just as Shi’ites
are, from the opposite side. Particularly targetted are Christians,
who are mainly Chaldeans, but also the gnostic Mandaens. Of the
original 30,000 who lived in Iraq, there are now only 13,000. One
Mandaer interviewed by the Neue Züricher Zeitung explained: "Our
women are without veils, our men are traditionally goldsmiths, and we
have our own language. All this creates bad blood."
Iraqis with money are profiled for kidnappings; numerous exiles have
reported that they had had family members kidnapped, often children,
and had been forced to pay high ransoms. In more cases than not, even
after the ransom had been paid, the abducted family member was found
dead. One Iraqi refugee told the Neue Züricher Zeitung that she had
paid $40,000 to free her kidnapped husband, only to discover soon
after that he had been beheaded. Another woman reported that her
daughter had been kidnapped; when her husband left to sell his
grocery store, to raise the ransom, he didn’t return. A phone call
informed her that the store and her husband’s car were burning. She
fled with a son, without news of her daughter.
Iraqi Arabs who flee to Syria have a three-month sojourn permit, with
the possibility of a three-month extension. Following the permit’s
expiration, the refugee usually returns briefly to Iraq, and starts
all over again.
The strain on Syria’s economy is profound. The UNHCR estimates that
it needs $60 million to deal with the refugee flow, $15 million of
which is for Syria. Thus far, according to varied reports, Japan has
pledged $3 million, and Jordan, $1 million. But this comes nowhere
near the sum required. Syria’s health system is totally unable to
cope with the new demands, and cannot cover the costs of health care
for such a huge number of people. The UNHCR and the Red Crescent (the
Islamic counterpart to the Red Cross) have set up two new clinics.
According to Caritas, many doctors reportedly provide free care, or
give discounts for X-rays and other treatment. Although Iraqi
children are allowed to attend Syrian schools, the schools too are
totally overwhelmed.
Some refugees are so poor, that they are forced into prostitution or
other criminal activities. A prostitute can earn $60 a night, whereas
a seamstress earns $50 a month. According to Sister N., director of a
Christian order interviewed by the Neue Zürcher Zeitung: "Children
are up until 3:00 a.m. in the winter, wearing flip-flops, and
cleaning houses. Former professors are begging for a kilo of rice."
And the rich? They are not so few in number. Some can afford to buy
million-dollar villas, or apartments costing a few hundred thousand
dollars. The massive influx of refugees has placed such pressures on
the housing market, that an unprecedented speculative construction
boom has resulted, driving prices of existing homes for sale and
apartments for rent, into the stratosphere. Rents have gone up in
some areas by 300%. The poor, including Syrians who had made ends
meet prior to the refugee crisis, have found their rents raised, and
cannot any longer cope.
Ethnic-Religious Destabilization
One of the most insidious features of the refugee crisis is the
impact on the delicate social balance in Syria. To appreciate the
nature of this phenomenon, one has to first consider the
ethnic/religious makeup of Syria. According to an in-depth study
published in the German weekly Die Zeit on Feb. 22, out of a
population of 18 million, 70% are Sunnis, 16% Shi’ites (Alawites),
and 10% Christians. In addition, there are an estimated 150,000
Kurds, largely unregistered. Within each religious denomination,
there are further subdivisions. Among the Christians, there are 11
confessions: five Orthodox groups, five Catholic and one Protestant.
And there may be religious differences among the same ethnic
community: For example, there are Armenian Orthodox as well as
Armenian Apostolic and Armenian Catholic communities. In addition,
the Muslims are also divided into five sects. Religious tolerance in
Syria has been a trademark in the country’s 6,000-year history. The
condition of Christians, according to church representatives,
continues to be very good under the Bashar al-Assad government.
Now, with the refugee stream from Iraq, this complex religious/ethnic
mosaic is being affected. According to Pater Metri Hadji-Athanasiou,
a Greek Catholic priest, who studied at the Sorbonne in Paris and in
Belgium, it is not to be excluded that the Bush regime may aim
deliberately to destabilize Syria along ethnic/religious lines,
through the refugee crisis. If the feared event of a total
disintegration of Iraq along ethnic/sectarian lines takes place, this
crisis could explode overnight.
Given this grave situation, it is not only absurd but criminal for
the Bush Administration to exclude Syria from direct talks, aimed at
stabilizing the Iraq situation. As mentioned above, Washington was
forced recently at least to send an envoy to talk about the refugee
crisis. But managing the crisis, is no solution. The only solution,
four years after the dreadful war began, is to put an end to the
conflict, with a carefully planned, phased troop withdrawal, within
the context of a regional security arrangement, supported by the
United States. Syria’s role in this process, along with Iran’s, is
vital, not only because of the refugee plight which the war has
created, but because of the political, as well as ethnic/religious
experience Damascus could contribute.
This article appears in the March 30, 2007 issue of Executive
Intelligence Review.
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