DEATH OF ARMENIA’S PRIME MINISTER MAY INTENSIFY THE STRUGGLE FOR POWER.

Eurasian Home Analytical Resource, Russia
March 29 2007

The sudden death of Armenian Prime Minister Andranik Margaryan came
quite as a shock to the country. On May 12, 2007 the parliamentary
elections will be held in Armenia. These elections will have a pivotal
role in formation of a new political system because the country is
one year from the presidential elections. Andranik Margaryan, head
of the biggest ruling Republican Party, was one of the key figures.

Having managed to hold the Premier’s post for 7 years, he could soften
the political confrontation before the presidential elections.

After his death the political struggle in Armenia is quite likely to
become more severe, this will tell on the country’s moral atmosphere.

However, Margaryan’s death will not lead to serious political
conflicts.

President Robert Kocharian and the ruling coalition have decided that
it is the Republican Party’s member who will become Prime Minister.

Minister of Defense Serge Sarkisian has been appointed acting Prime
Minister. However, it is unclear whom the President will submit to
the Parliament for approval to the Premier’s post. It may be once
again Serge Sarkisian. In this case, Sarkisian will have very good
chances of driving the Republican Party into the National Assembly.

Now Sarkisian seems to be the most likely candidate for the premiership
in 2008. At the same time, it is questionable if Robert Kocharian will
accept such a powerful figure as Sarkisian. If Kocharian is going to
prevent Sarkisian from strengthening his position excessively, then
a weaker person, for example, Minister of Territorial Administration
Hovik Abrahamyan will be appointed Premier. Abrahamyan also belongs
to the Republican Party, but he is more inclined to be subordinate
to the President.

One cannot say that the Prime Minister’s death will change the
relations between the authorities and the opposition. Today the
Armenian opposition is extremely weak and is not able to compete
with the parties in power. So, the opposition cannot take advantage
of the situation to destabilize the political status quo. However,
the government configuration may be changed in some way. Now the
most active struggle has started between the Republican Party headed
by Serge Sarkisian and the Prosperous Armenia Party backed by the
President. Here the new lay of the land can change the correlation
of political forces in a sense, but the changes are unlikely to be
dramatic. On the whole, only the political atmosphere can take a turn
for the worse because the struggle for power is becoming fierce.