PM’S DEATH HAS LITTLE IMPACT ON ELECTION CAMPAIGN
by Emil Danielyan

Transitions Online, Czech Republic
EurasiaNet, NY
March 30 2007

The late Andranik Markarian may have been too nice to carve out a
real power base in Armenia’s cut-and-thrust political arena. From
EurasiaNet.

As Armenians come to grips with the sudden death of Prime Minister
Andranik Markarian, there are growing indications that his passing
will not have a major impact on parliamentary elections scheduled
for 12 May.

Past experience suggests that that outcome will be decided not so
much by the electorate, but by actions taken by the country’s two
most powerful men: President Robert Kocharian and Defense Minister
Serzh Sarkisian. Throughout his nearly seven-year premiership, the
55-year-old Markarian never seriously challenged their grip on power,
despite earning acclaim for his unassuming demeanor, conciliatory
stance toward the opposition, and openness to independent media.

"The prime minister never played a decisive role in Armenian politics,
and key decisions were mainly made by Kocharian and Sarkisian,"
Aghasi Yenokian, a seasoned political analyst, told EurasiaNet. "The
impact of his death on the election results will therefore be very
small." Some analysts say Markarian, who at the time of his death
also served as chairman of the governing Republican Party of Armenia
(RPA), was widely expected to resign following the upcoming polls.

Sarkisian’s brother Levon, a career diplomat, appeared to confirm
that Markarian’s influence was limited. Speaking with journalists
during Markarian’s state funeral on 28 March, Levon Sarkisian said
that the former prime minister’s death "won’t have a great impact [on
political processes] because, thank God, we have been an independent
state with functioning mechanisms for 15 years."

Serzh Sarkisian is now tipped to be appointed prime minister by
Kocharian. Media reports citing government sources have said the
appointment will be announced in the coming days. Kocharian’s
office and leaders of his loyal majority in parliament, who held
urgent consultations on the matter on 26 March, have not officially
confirmed this yet. Majority leaders have said only that the RPA
will continue to control the post of prime minister at least until
the parliamentary elections.

Sarkisian was named the RPA’s acting chairman earlier this week.

Nominally, he was the number two figure in the party hierarchy prior
to Markarian’s death. But Sarkisian was widely considered the party’s
de facto leader even before the prime minister’s fatal heart attack.

Commentators pointed to the fact that the RPA’s recently publicized
electoral list is dominated by Sarkisian’s wealthy loyalists, most
of whom joined Armenia’s largest "party of power" together with the
powerful defense minister last July.

That development marked the start of Sarkisian’s apparent preparations
for the presidential election due early in 2008. He is expected to
heavily rely on the RPA’s control of most central and local government
bodies, extensive patronage networks, and a strong presence on
election commissions. The use of "administrative resources" proved
decisive in the party’s victory in the 2003 parliamentary elections,
which were marred by reports of widespread fraud. Patronage power
and other forms of influence remain the RPA’s trump cards ahead of
the forthcoming parliamentary voting, which experts say will play a
determining role in the outcome of the 2008 presidential election.

The massive outpouring of sympathy expressed by ordinary Armenians
for the late premier – thousands attended his funeral – showed that
Markarian enjoyed a level of popular support that Sarkisian and other
top Republicans do not necessarily have. "Voters will now associate
the RPA with Serzh Sarkisian, rather than Andranik Markarian,"
Hovannes Galajian, a veteran columnist, commented in his newspaper
Iskakan Iravunk.

This, according to some observers, could damage the party’s popularity,
prompting it to rely on its administrative resources to ensure
the desired result in the 12 May balloting. "The number of the
party’s sincere supporters will shrink," predicted Aram Abrahamian,
editor of the Aravot daily. "There will mainly remain employees of
government agencies whose corrupt bosses depend on authorities, and
force [subordinates] to vote and even falsify elections in favor of
the Republicans."

"The RPA will have to resort to much more vote-rigging than was
planned," agreed Hayk, another paper that is often critical of the
government.

Widespread vote-rigging would increase the likelihood of post-election
unrest in Armenia. Markarian played a major role in easing bitter
standoffs between the government and the opposition in the past. He
was among the few top members of the government camp who seemed
reluctant to attack opposition leaders, and who privately communicated
with even the bitterest foes of the Kocharian-Sarkisian team. This
explains why virtually all prominent opposition members lavished
praise on Markarian in the days following his 25 March death from
heart failure. As opposition lawmaker Stepan Zakarian put it, "Nobody
in Armenia hated him. Both the opposition and pro-government forces
maintained good relationships with the prime minister."

Aram Sarkisian (no relation to the defense minister), the leader
of the most radical opposition party, Republic, believes that
dialogue between the government and the opposition will suffer due
to Markarian’s absence. "Unfortunately, there are very few people in
the government pyramid who have humane skills such [as] the ability
to listen and to forgive," he told RFE/RL.

A lot depends on how Kocharian will behave in this situation. He is
believed to be planning to hand over power to Sarkisian and remain
in government in some capacity after completing his second and final
term in office in less than a year from now. To that end, Kocharian
is reportedly sponsoring another election frontrunner, the populist
Prosperous Armenia Party of businessman Gagik Tsarukian, both as his
new support base and as a counterweight to the RPA. The Armenian
press has for months been speculating about a possible electoral
clash between the two political groups.

But analyst Yenokian is among those who see little prospect for such
confrontation. "Everything continues to be decided by Kocharian and,
to a lesser extent, Sarkisian, and a serious conflict between these
two individuals is, therefore, extremely unlikely," he said.

Emil Danielyan is a Yerevan-based journalist and political analyst.

This is a partner post from EurasiaNet.