The New Anatolian, Turkey
March 31 2007

April emerges as crucial period in Turkish politics

Ilnur Cevik
31 March 2007
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ilnurcevik@yahoo.com
After months of tension over the presidential election, April will
see most of the mysteries unfold and the "political war" start in
earnest.

The ruling Justice and Development (AK) Party with its commanding
majority in Parliament will move to name the new president and have
him elected as President Ahmet Necdet Sezer retires. The opposition
led by the Republican People’s Party (CHP) will do its best to
prevent this from happening. It will be backed by the opposition
forces in Turkey and probably by the military …

April will be the month when the candidates will be named, and by the
end of the month the first rounds of balloting for the new president
will be held in Parliament. It is expected that the president will be
elected through the AK Party votes on May 9 …

Of course this will not be a politically tranquil period. The AK
Party will push for its own candidate and the opposition will fight
"on all fronts" to prevent this in what may turn out to be a war of
attrition.

Judging from the gossip and the political controversies that have
already been created by the opposition, we feel especially the second
half of April will be a period of turmoil. Let us hope Turkey sails
through this period with minor losses.

Besides all this, April is an important month when Turkey has to
attend to an international offensive created by the Armenians to push
for the recognition of their claims that they were subjected to a
so-called genocide by the Ottoman Turks at the turn of the last
century… The Armenians have been lobbying for this in many
parliaments across the globe, and their latest target is Capitol
Hill. The Armenians are not only trying to score big on Capitol Hill
but they also aim to ruin the strategic relationship between the
United States and Turkey. Turkey has already declared that such a
recognition by the U.S. Congress of genocide claims by the Armenians
is unacceptable and will cause irreparable damage to relations with
the U.S.

Turkey also has to tend to the developments in Iraq, especially as
work is in progress to organize a census in Kirkuk this summer so
that a referendum can be held in November to decide the future of the
city. It is a forgone conclusion that a majority in Kirkuk will vote
to join the Iraqi Kurdish federation in the north, while Turkey says
the referendum should be delayed.

Meanwhile, Turkey is also busy organizing a concerted effort by the
neighboring countries of Iraq as well as leading powers to meet in
Istanbul where it will bring together the Iranians, Syrians and the
Americans as well as others. The aim is to find ways in the
international area to help Iraq stay together and prevent a collapse
of Baghdad …

So we will be hard-pressed on all political fronts as April becomes a
crucial month for Turks. With all the political heat, summer will
arrive in Turkey in April …