HOPES FADING FOR KARABAKH PEACE
Ali Verdiyev

Baku Sun, Azerbaijan
April 2 2007

BAKU – Hopes for a peaceful solution to the conflict between
neighboring Azerbaijan and Armenia over the disputed Azerbaijani
region of Nagorno-Karabakh are fading away, as peace talks brokered by
international mediators continue to produce anything but a long-awaited
breakthrough to resolve the almost 20-year conflict.

This time, the Azerbaijani and Armenian foreign ministers, Elmar
Mammadyarov and Vardan Oskanyan, met in Geneva to discuss a peace plan
prepared by the OSCE Minsk Group, a team of mediators set up to deal
with the conflict. But the two failed to make progress in the talks,
official statements from both sides say.

"Elmar Mammadyarov and Vardan Oskanyan are expected to meet in April.

This was agreed during the meeting of the Azerbaijani and Armenian
foreign ministers in Geneva," the press secretary of the Azerbaijani
Foreign Ministry, Khazar Ibrahim, told local news agency Trend in
a statement which, in delicate diplomatic language, means that no
progress was made in the latest meeting of the ministers. The two
men focused on a possible meeting of the Azerbaijani and Armenian
presidents, but there should be a "solid basis" for the meeting of
the presidents, which is not there now, Ibrahim stressed.

However, the Armenian side was much more forthcoming about the meeting
in Geneva. "Despite the preparatory work the peace talks for the
settlement of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict progress slowly," Armenian
Foreign Minister Vardan Oskanyan stated. "The Geneva meeting proved
again that there are discrepancies between us that are difficult to
overcome. In this context the meeting was very difficult. We agreed
to meet again in April. We may manage to come to agreement and it
will be clear when the presidents meet. Of course, this meeting will
take place after the parliamentary elections in Armenia," Oskanyan
told journalists in Yerevan.

Experts say that there is hardly likely to be any progress in the
peace talks until the parliamentary elections in Armenia in May this
year. Yerevan has taken a timeout to make sure that the elections
are conducted without any domestic political ferment. Any agreement
or decision on Karabakh may actually stir emotions and feelings
in Armenia, as much as in Azerbaijan, in the run-up to the crucial
elections.

The ministers met with the participation of the Russian, French and
US co-chairmen of the OSCE Minsk Group – Yuriy Merzlyakov, Bernard
Fassier and Matthew Bryza, as well as the personal envoy of the OSCE
chairman-in-office, Andrzej Kasprzik. The peace plan supported by
the OSCE Minsk Group reportedly contains the basic principles for
a settlement of the conflict. These principles envision two major
initiatives – the withdrawal of Armenian forces from the Azerbaijani
districts around Nagorno-Karabakh and the determination of an interim
status for the self-proclaimed republic before a referendum on the
final status of the territory, the Russian co-chairman of the Minsk
Group, Yuriy Merzlyakov, said.

Armenia occupied Nagorno-Karabakh and seven surrounding districts of
Azerbaijan in the 1992-1994 war. It now demands that one of these
districts, Lachin, be used as a corridor to connect the separatist
region with Armenia.

The status of the separatist Azerbaijani enclave seems to have been
the bone of contention in the peace talks over the past decade.

Armenia insists that the status should be determined in a referendum
to be held among the population of the so-called Nagorno-Karabakh
republic, but Baku is sensitive about this idea and demands
unconditional withdrawal of the Armenian armed forces from the
occupied Azerbaijani districts. In the meantime, Azerbaijanis are
still uncompromising when it comes to the Karabakh issue, which they
see as a matter of national pride and honor.

A recent public survey held among 1,000 Azerbaijanis in 15 districts
and 12 towns showed that 59.4 per cent of the respondents do not
accept any compromises on the Karabakh conflict, political analyst
Rasim Musabayov told a news conference in Baku.

Only 11.5 per cent of the respondents supported the granting of
cultural self-administration and local government opportunities to
Nagorno-Karabakh, while 9.5 per cent agreed to a self-administration
model similar to that of Azerbaijan’s autonomous region of Nakhchivan.

Further, 11.1 per cent said that the status of Nagorno-Karabakh could
be determined through a referendum on condition that Azerbaijan’s
internally displaced persons return to their native lands.

Nevertheless, the bulk of respondents were pessimistic about the
prospects for settlement of the conflict, as 46.7 per cent said that
the "neither peace no war" situation will continue. While 38.4 per
cent of the respondents said that there will be progress towards
a peaceful resolution of the conflict, 12.7 per cent believe that
military hostilities will resume.

Thus, the public feelings in Azerbaijan, a country which has lost
control over nearly one-fifth of its territory and has now about a
million refugees and IDPs, following Armenia’s military aggression, and
the whims of Armenia, which is interested in preserving the status-quo,
leave little hope that the conflict will be resolved peacefully and
in the soonest time possible. Yet there are opportunities that require
a constructive position, first of all from Armenia.