FIGHTING FOR ARMENIA
Alexander Mkrtchian for RIA Novosti
RIA Novosti, Russia
April 3 2007
Moscow
In all civilized countries people see elections as an opportunity to
improve their lives, to build a stronger state and improve security.
Similar attitudes prevail in Armenia today because the outcome of the
forthcoming parliamentary elections will largely determine changes in
government and society, prospects for settling the Karabakh crisis,
and success of the efforts to overcome the consequences of the Armenian
genocide. These are major regional and international issues.
But ordinary Armenians have more faith in real power than promises.
It is no accident that the public preferences are with the parties of
power – the Republicans and the newly-established Prosperous Armenia
Party (PAP). The opposition parties are obviously weak.
The PAP was set up with the support of the current administration
and is headed by local oligarch Gagik Tsarukian. In the forthcoming
presidential elections, he is unlikely to put up a serious fight
against the only favorite Serzh Sarkisian. Even the name of Prosperous
Armenia sounds more like a declaration. In effect, its leader is a man
whose business has prospered largely due to the benevolent attitude
of the current authorities.
The Armenian Revolutionary Federation deserves special mention. This
party has made a great contribution to the success of the Karabakh
movement; it is widely respected by the numerous Armenians who live
outside the CIS, and has been trying to restore its positions in
Russia and other former Soviet republics. It looks like this party
will receive about 10% of the votes and have a voice in parliament.
It will probably support the Republican presidential nominee Serzh
Sarkisian, and a Russia-oriented strategy.
The prospects of Russian-Armenian strategic partnership are rather
bleak since the modern geopolitical alignment of forces in the Caucasus
does not favor Armenia and Russia. The U.S., Europe and Turkey are
confidently paving the way for NATO into Central Asia through Georgia
and Azerbaijan. The West has been closely watching the Caspian
oil-and-gas projects and construction of the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan
and Baku-Tbilisi-Erzurum pipelines, railways and highways bypassing
Armenia, and may decide to stage a major geopolitical experiment in
the region.
The United States and its allies want to stay in the region in the
long term not only because the Caspian is rich in energy and Central
Asia in strategic raw materials but also to gain control of the
most important territories and communications, exert pressure on the
oil-bearing Iran and eradicate Russia’s traditional influence there.
Regrettably, Orthodox Georgia is turning into a vehicle of
implementing Western strategy and geopolitics in the Caucasus and
Central Asia. Hence, fighting for Armenia will determine who controls
the South Caucasus, and can exert certain influence on Asia Minor.
For this reason, the West and Russia are equally interested in Robert
Kocharian’s successor.
For us the best choice will be Serzh Sarkisian, defense minister and
secretary of the Armenian Security Council. As a government official,
he has climbed the career ladder starting from the bottom, and held
key positions in security-related bodies of Nagorny Karabakh and
Armenia. He knows the domestic situation well and has built a good
working relationship with his Russian colleagues. All these factors
should contribute to the consolidation of strategic partnership.
There is no united opposition in Armenia, which does not mean that
the presidential elections will be uneventful. The Western favorite
is Vardan Oskanian, who has been Armenia’s foreign minister during
all these years.
In order to promote their strategic partnership Russia and Armenia
should look for new opportunities to expand trade and economic
relations, and military-technical and cultural cooperation. Armenia
requires additional security guarantees in the event of an armed
provocation in the Karabakh conflict area. In turn, Armenia should
have a clear-cut concept of national security. Russia, on the other
hand, must clearly see the framework of a common security system in
the region in general, and in Armenia, in particular.
The inter-government commission on economic cooperation between Russia
and Armenia should probably step up its activities. It could include
reputable representatives of civil institutions from both sides.
Russian companies have bought Armenian energy facilities, and are not
enthusiastic about investing in the local economy, especially in small
and medium-sized businesses. By comparison, in the period between
1992 and 2001,Turkey set up 1,327 businesses of different status on
the territory of its main South Caucasian partner, Azerbaijan.
Armenian society is hoping that the visit of Russian Foreign Minister
Sergei Lavrov will contribute to the promotion of bilateral ties.
Yerevan understands that the present and future of Russian-Armenian
relations largely determine political stability in the South
Caucasus. Despite intensive activities of NATO and the European Union
in the region, Armenia continues to be Russia’s reliable partner.
Yerevan is maintaining relations of trust with Russia when it comes
to national security, and is trying to avoid problems that may
require force majeure solutions. This is my view of Armenian foreign
policy. Its positive development largely depends on Russia’s position,
and on its predictable and resolute action in the region.
Alexander Mkrtchian is a member of the Union of Armenians in Russia
board.
The opinions expressed in this article are the author’s and do not
necessarily represent those of RIA Novosti.