ARMENIA TO SUFFER DRASTICALLY FROM US ATTACK ON IRAN
Hayots Ashkharh, Yerevan
5 Apr 07 pp 1, 2
Excerpt from Vardan Grigoryan’s report by Armenian newspaper Hayots
Ashkharh on 5 April headlined "The ghost of the US-Iran war in
Azerbaijan and Armenia"
The recent tensions in US-Iran relations have caused serious concern in
the South Caucasus countries, which grows especially in the light of
the recent facts "spotlighted" by the Israeli and Russian intelligence
services.
However, a thorough examination of the information currently available
shows that at least for now, the United States is trying to act
against Iran using threats used in psychological wars.
[Passage omitted: Iran maintains a tough position]
The unpredictable situation in US-Iran relations has affected all
the countries neighbouring on Iran, and Azerbaijan’s position is the
worst among them. That country has begun to build bomb-shelters and
strengthen its air defence system fearing that Iran may strike oil
facilities in Baku.
[Passage omitted: More Azerbaijani reaction]
Unlike Azerbaijan, the possibility of war between the USA and Iran
is seen as a double-edged weapon. Some commentators try to create an
impression that Armenia, unlike Azerbaijan which has found itself
in a desperate position, will suffer only in terms of economy and
communications, and this is a very one-sided assessment.
Certainly, it is not realistic that after Iranian nuclear
facilities are hit, large radioactive clouds will spread across that
country’s borders because those facilities are still in the stage
of construction. But if the USA uses super-powerful bombs to destroy
Iran’s underground military facilities, Armenia might face a threat
of new earthquakes, especially that the Armenian Nuclear Power Plant
is located on the geological fault of Iranian mountains.
There will be more complicated consequences if the Armenian-Iranian
border is closed because Armenia, blockaded by Turkey and Azerbaijan,
will temporarily be held hostage by the developments in neighbouring
Georgia. Let’s remember how the closure of the Russian-Georgian
border and the winter energy blockade of Georgia affected our
country. Azerbaijan and Turkey benefited from it by stretching a
helping hand to Georgia and extorting an agreement to construct the
Kars-Akhalkalaki railroad.
Taking into account the possibility of a war between the USA and
Iran, our two "hostile neighbours" will do whatever they can to cause
problems in Armenian-Georgian relations with the aim of dictating
new conditions to Armenia.
If Iran closes its border with Armenia and Armenian-Georgian clashes
are provoked in Javakheti [Georgian region predominantly populated
by Armenians], Armenia will find itself in a desperate situation,
making it easier to dictate conditions to our country in the Karabakh
and other issues.
So we should not be inspired by the sad fate Azerbaijan may face in
case of a US-Iran war because Azerbaijan has strong links with Turkey
via Georgia, while Armenia – after the border closes with Iran – will
become dependent on the unpredictable behaviour of Georgia which might
become an arena for possible Turkish and Azerbaijani provocations.