ARMENIA GETS NEW PRIME MINISTER
Haroutiun Khachatrian
EurasiaNet, NY
April 5 2007
An April 4 decree by President Robert Kocharian has named Defense
Minister Serzh Sarkisian as Armenia’s new premier, following the
death a week and a half ago of Prime Minister Andranik Markarian.
The decision did not come as a surprise. The 53-year-old Sarkisian,
who served as defense minister since 2000, following an earlier stint
in the 1990s, is widely viewed as the second most influential political
figure in Armenia after President Kocharian. He has also headed the
country’s National Security Service, National Security Council and
presidential administration, posts which are believed to have given
him additional key levers of advantage for Armenian political life.
Following Markarian’s death, he has also been named acting head of the
ruling Republican Party of Armenia. Under the terms of a coalition
agreement with two other pro-government parties, the RPA, which has
the largest faction in parliament, holds the post of prime minister.
Sarkisian will hold office for slightly more than a month, until the
elections, when the constitution requires him to give up the post. If
the Republican Party wins at the polls, he could again be reappointed
to the job.
The newly named prime minister now will have 20 days to name the
members of his cabinet.
Radical changes are not anticipated. On April 3, Parliamentary
Speaker Tigran Torosian, deputy chairman of the Republican Party,
told reporters that given "the current realities, no changes in the
[government] cabinet should be expected," news agency ArmInfo reported.
For now, the prime minister’s policy plans remain unclear. Sarkisian
was in Brussels to discuss Armenia’s progress in its Individual
Partnership Action Plan with the North Atlantic Treaty Organization
when his appointment was decreed. His reactions to the decision have
not yet been publicized.
With just over one month to go before Arnenia’s parliamentary
elections, however, the nomination poses clear challenges for
Sarkisian.
The March 25 death of Prime Minister Andranik Markarian presents
the first. As acting head of the RPA, Sarkisian, who joined the
party less than a year ago, must now not only manage to replicate
Markarian’s reputation for building unity within the party on the
eve of a critical parliamentary election, but to replace him as the
party’s ideological head as well.
Some observers have wondered whether the differences in the two
men’s approaches could entail the Republican Party splitting into
two wings. While Markarian was a Soviet-era dissident and member of a
political party that called for Armenia’s independence from the Soviet
Union, Sarkisian, educated as a philologist, worked for nine years
as a functionary for the Komsomol, the Communist Party youth league.
Addressing this issue on April 3, party spokesperson Eduard Sharmazanov
denied the prospect, stating that the Republican Party does not intend
to change its ideology or "strategy." Tactics alone could be subject
to change, the news agency Arminfo reported Sharmazanov as saying,
without elaboration.
The mysterious April 2 attempt on the life of Gyumri Mayor Vardan
Ghukasian, an RPA board member, could prove a second challenge. [For
details, see the Eurasia Insight archive]. Ghukasian was returning
from a meeting at which the party nominated Sarkisian as their
candidate for prime minister. Whatever the reasons for the attack,
it is widely seen as an affront to the Republican Party’s status.
For now, the most pressing task for Sarkisian will be to maintain the
party’s standing in parliament, particularly against the increasingly
popular pro-government Prosperous Armenia Party, a frontrunner in
many opinion polls. Despite his influence, Sarkisian is far from
among the most popular of public figures with ordinary Armenians.
Sour memories persist of his statement that the "mentality of our
people," rather than wrongdoing by election officials, was the reason
for rigged votes during the 2003 parliamentary elections. In recent
months, however, he has pledged to ensure that the May elections will
be free and fair.
The pledge, many analysts believe, could have been made with an
eye to the future. His past as the head of military operations for
the self-declared state of Nagorno Karabakh is seen as giving him
particular status within the government elite’s so-called "Karabakh
clan." Armenian analysts and media discuss as a given the likelihood
that he will run for president in 2008 once President Kocharian’s
final term of office expires.
Editor’s Note: Haroutiun Khachatrian is a Yerevan-based writer
specializing in economic and political affairs.