ARMENIA: IN SEARCH OF ALTERNATIVES; ARMENIA IS THROUGH WITH LISTENING TO MYTHS ABOUT RUSSIA
by Gajane Movsesjan
Translated by A. Ignatkin

Source: Vremya Novostei, April 6, 2006, p. 5
Agency WPS
What the Papers Say Part B (Russia)
April 6, 2006 Thursday

Armenia may decide that it doesn’t need Russia after all; Armenian
Foreign Minister Vardan Oskanjan’s two-day visit to Moscow begins
today. Oskanjan will meet with his Russian counterpart Sergei Lavrov
and Security Council Secretary Igor Ivanov. He met with US Secretary
of State Condoleezza Rice in Washington the other day.

Armenian Foreign Minister Vardan Oskanjan’s two-day visit to Moscow
begins today. Oskanjan will meet with his Russian counterpart Sergei
Lavrov and Security Council Secretary Igor Ivanov. Official reports
on the agenda are brief. They indicate that it includes bilateral
relations, the Nagorno-Karabakh problem, regional matters, and
cooperation within the framework of international organizations.

Sources from Armenian diplomatic circles say that this is just a
routine visit, nothing more.

What is interesting, however, is that Oskanjan discussed the same
matters with US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice in Washington
the other day. Oskanjan and Rice signed an accord on March 27 to the
effect that Armenia will receive $236.5 million under the Millennium
Challenges program over the next five years. The millions will be
used to repair roads in rural areas, reconstruction of irrigation and
drainage systems, and reduction of impoverishment in the agricultural
sector.

Rice herself undermined political undertones of this seemingly economic
event at the signing ceremony when she began elaborating meaningfully
on the necessity of advancement of democratic reforms in Armenia in
the light of the parliamentary and presidential elections there in
2007 and 2008. Armenian observers took her words as an admission
of Washington’s desire to bring political and economic processes
in Armenia under its own control. Moreover, the program itself
(Millennium Challenges) was taken as but an additional instrument of
American influence with Yerevan.

Shushan Khatlamadzhjan, an analyst with the Armenian Institute of Civil
Society and Regional Development, believes that the Armenian-Russian
strategic partnership is in a crisis. "The problem is rooted in the
lack of transparency of the talks between the Armenian and Russian
authorities," she said. "Armenian society feels disassociated from
public politics and cannot help ascribing it to some clandestine
accords between the governments of the two countries… Like a
recompense to Armenia for high gas tariffs in the form of a discount on
Russian military hardware as some Russian media outlets speculated. In
short, even pro-Russian political forces in Armenia begin promoting
the necessity to develop foreign policy on the basis of the actual
national interests and not the old myths…"

Now let’s consider the problem of Nagorno-Karabakh. Chairmen of
the OSCE Minsk Group, Russia and the United States have headed the
mission of intermediaries for a decade now. With nothing to show
for it in terms of the formula of a lasting peace. A meeting between
the presidents of Armenia and Azerbaijan in France was arranged this
February but even it failed as a means of accomplishing anything.

Foreign intermediaries are analyzing the situation again now. The
United States is particularly impatient. American diplomacy put Yerevan
and Baku under pressure in March. Daniel Fried, US Undersecretary of
State for Europe and Eurasia, was dispatched to the region. Fried
announced that the United States wanted a compromise between the
warring sides reached this year.

The United States is impatient and the European Union is certainly
getting active. Armenian analysts and observers ascribe these
trends to the desire on the part of the West to resolve conflicts
in the post-Soviet zone in such a manner as to weaken Russia’s
positions. As far as Khatlamadzhjan is concerned, it is precisely
from this standpoint that specialists should contemplate the renewed
debates over the so-called "Marshall Plan for the Caucasus." The idea
boils down to substantial economic aid to countries of the southern
part of the Caucasus in return for political concessions. "Russia
is in the situation where a new and effective policy with regard to
Armenia becomes a must," Khatlamadzhjan concluded.

Khatlamadzhjan also believes that "the myth in Armenia of there being
no alternatives to strategic partnership with Russia is in its last
throes." "Armenia may solve its regional problems and resolve conflicts
without military and other cooperation with Russia, accepting instead
the plan and investments from the West. There is the widespread opinion
in analytical community here that there can be no war or peace without
Russia, but we shouldn’t make a fetish of this fact or demonize it,"
she said.