GEORGIA WORLD’S ‘SECOND BIGGEST SHRINKER’ SAYS THE ECONOMIST
By Nino Mumladze
The Messenger, Georgia
April 5 2007
In his address to Parliament last month President Saakashvili claimed demographic trends were improving
Based on the UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs report
World Population Prospects: The 2006 Revision, the authoritative
British journal The Economist has ranked Georgia nine out of the ten
"world’s biggest shrinkers", placing Georgia between the Ukraine and
Moldova. The estimates are a forecast for the years 2005-2010 and place
many former Soviet countries among the biggest shrinkers in the world.
Among other factors, economic decline and political instability
contribute to the high emigration rates in these countries causing
their population to decline rapidly. The report also mentions that
as states become members of the European Union, new opportunities
accelerate the emigration trend.
President Mikheil Saakashvili appears to disagree with this prognosis
stating in his annual address to parliament on March 15 asserting
that Georgia is on a growth trend rather than a shrinking one,
"Our strength is not measured by our population, though we have had
a positive balance in this regard over the past three years. There
have been certain improvements in the migration and birth rates,
though we still must work on this."
The Georgian Department of Statistics also back Saakashvili’s claims
reporting that, "Based on figures from January 1 2006, the population
of the territories under Georgian jurisdiction totals 4.4 million
people, which is a 1.8 percent increase compared to Januray 1,
2005 data."
The Department of Statistics reports also that although the number
of births in 2005 decreased by 6.2 percent compared to 2004 figures,
"in light of a significant decrease in death rates, the population’s
natural increase has reached the highest point within the last
seven years."
The UN places Georgia only second after Guyana, in a list of countries
of less developed regions whose population is projected to decrease
between 2007 and 2050. Armenia is fourth on the list.
The Statistics Department cites Border Police (under the Ministry of
Internal Affairs) data that shows that during the years 2004-2005 more
people have entered the country than left the country, and argues this
"is one of the major factors pointing to the fact that the population
is increasing", reads a press release of the department.
The release adds that they are using Border Patrol Department data
based on the recommendations of foreign experts.
However Gia Tsuladze, demographic expert, doesn’t agree with the
Statistics Department and says the methods the department is using
to justify their claims that the population is increasing are faulty.
Tsuladze tells The Messenger he believes, "the Georgian population
has been continuing to decrease since 1993-94. The decreasing death
rates counterbalancing slow birth rates influence the numbers to some
extent, but the main determinant is still migration," he claims.
Aaron Erlich of the Caucasus Research Resource Centre says the
conclusions the Statistics Department are coming up with based on
traffic on the border are shaky. "They are simply counting how many
people cross the border. No one is looking at who really is living
in Georgia or not." Erlich explains to The Messenger.
Despite questioning the specific methodology, Erlich still assumes
that the general tendency since the Rose Revolution is that fewer
people are thinking about leaving Georgian than before the revolution.