WILL BAKU DECIDE TO RESOLVE THE KARABAKH CONFLICT BY USE OF FORCE?

PanARMENIAN.Net
05.04.2007 GMT+04:00

Azerbaijan hurries, by all means, "to resolve" the Karabakh Conflict in
its own way, taking advantage of Europe’s extreme interest in Baku’s
hydrocarbons, which may be of lower price than that of Russian. In
exchange for oil and gas, and particularly for gas, Ilham Aliyev
intends to have Europe, particularly OSCE Minsk Group, falsify
the events.

/PanARMENIAN.Net/ As insurance, Azerbaijan also wants to enlist UN
support, though recently the mentioned Organization "has been good
for almost nothing".

Neither the UN plan regarding Cyprus, and moreover nor Ahtisaari’s
plans regarding the further developments in Kosovo will be realized,
unless both of them defend one of the parties only, refusing the
other party’s rights.

In this sense the Karabakh Conflict as well as any other conflict
is impossible to be resolved according to the UN Plan. The proposed
Resolution about the "frozen conflicts", even if it is not discussed
may serve as one more propagandistic step from Baku.

However, if Azerbaijan got acquainted with UN Charter more carefully,
it wouldn’t take any hasty measures, which could result in just
the opposite outcomes. The Article 73 of the Charter states, that
"The UN Members, which are responsible for the administration of
the territories, whose nation has not achieved self-government yet,
recognize that the interests of the nations of those territories are
of paramount importance."

Baku prefers better to speak about the territorial integrity of
Azerbaijan and its right over Nagorno-Karabakh, which according
to Azeri experts "was recognized by the International Community in
1992." Perhaps the admission of Azerbaijan in UNO in the existing
limits at a point in time of the USSR breakdown is meant. That is to
say, that again all the matter is in UN which in fact becomes a big
obstacle in the resolution of Nagorno-Karabakh Conflict, as well as
other conflicts.

Besides the UN plan there is also the so-called Aland Model,
whose main point is the strong autonomy and guarantees for the
Islands’ population. The fundamental principle of the Document
was giving the population of the Aland Island noticeable freedom
in administering their home policy for providing inner and external
security of Finland. In the Document there is also mentioned Finland’s
responsibility in assuring the security of the Island’s population. But
projecting the given Model for the Karabakh Conflict is impossible for
one main reason – Azerbaijan will never be able to give any guarantees
for the lives of the Armenian population of Nagorno-Karabakh. In this
case Baku tries to convince more itself than others that it is able to
assure the security of Nagorno-Karabakh, which doesn’t console itself
with illusions, since the anti-Armenian mood on the national level in
Baku is more than obvious. Even Turkey will never catch up with what
the Azeri Mass Media, totally under control of the Aliyev clan, writes.

Most probably Azerbaijan binds up the resolution of the
Nagorno-Karabakh Conflict with the US possible war with Iran. In the
opinion of Ruben Safrastyan, Director of the Oriental Studies Institute
of RA, in case of exacerbation of the US-Iran relations Azerbaijan
may take advantage of the emerged chaos and will try to resolve the
Karabakh Conflict by use of force. The question is whether or not the
World Community will shut its eyes to such a step from Ilham Aliyev.

"PanARMENIAN.Net" analytical department