Russian expert views Armenian election cycle, relations with Russia

Rossiyskaya Gazeta, Moscow
27 Mar 07

Text of report by Russian newspaper Rossiyskaya Gazeta on 27 March
[Interview with Vyacheslav Nikonov, political scientist, by Avtandil
Tsuladze, time and place not indicated: "The Elections in Armenia – A
Russian View" – taken from HTML version of source provided by ISP]

In a few weeks the electoral cycle that will end with the election of
a new president will begin in Armenia. Will the change of government
have an impact on the relations between our two countries? Well-known
political scientist Vyacheslav Nikonov answers this and other
questions of our Rossiyskaya Gazeta reporter.

[Tsuladze] Vyacheslav Alekseyevich, parliamentary elections will be
held in May in Armenia. What importance do they hold for Russia?

[Nikonov] The elections in Armenia are among the most important
elections, if not the most important elections, that are taking place
in post-Soviet space. The May elections open an election cycle that
will end with the replacement of the president of Armenia. This
country is Russia’s most important strategic partner in the
Transcaucasus. Armenia – Russia’s ally in the CIS, YevrAzES [Eurasian
Economic Community], and the Collective Security Treaty – is a core
member of our community. The nature of Russia’s relations with its
strategic partner and Russia’s position in this strategically
important region, which has been an object of serious geopolitical
competition in recent times, depend on the outcome of the
parliamentary and presidential elections in the republic.

[Tsuladze] If we hypothetically divide Armenian political forces into
"ours" and "not ours," what is the ratio of forces?

[Nikonov] Anti-Russian attitudes are the exception, not the rule in
Armenia.

The pro-government forces in Armenia and the Armenian government
itself are oriented to expanding cooperation with Russia. The same
thing can be said about the leaders in the election race – the
Republican party of Armenia and Flourishing Armenia. As for those
parties that are on the point of getting into parliament, there are
among them, of course, those who are not disposed to cooperation with
Russia, although they do not mention this directly in their rhetoric.

It is political suicide in Armenia to say that relations with Russia
should be cut off. Nonetheless, in practice that is exactly what the
party called Country of Law, which is headed by former speaker of
parliament Artur Bagdasaryan, is doing. He is betting on the West and
playing the "Armenian Yushchenko" card with all the obligatory
"orange" trappings. That means posing the goal of Armenia’s possible
admission to NATO, solving the Karabakh problem on terms that suit the
West, and a general strategic reorientation of Armenia towards the
West. Obviously, this kind of rhetoric and politics enjoys sympathy in
the West and in countries allied with it, in particular Turkey.

[Tsuladze] Is there an interdependence between political processes in
Russia and in Armenia? After all, both countries have entered a period
of change in government.

[Nikonov] The election cycles coincide. In both Russia and Armenia
parliamentary elections will take place first, then the presidential
election. And in both countries the president cannot run for a third
term, so the question of succession of power arises. The difference in
the situation is that the Kremlin is more confident from an electoral
point of view than the top leadership of Armenia.

The situation is more complex in Armenia. While the republic has
enjoyed rapid economic growth in recent years, the economic situation
is not simple.

Paradoxical as it may seem, cooperation with Russia is also a
complicating factor for the Armenian leadership, above all because
there is a certain disillusionment with the results of this
cooperation. Certain complaints about Russia have built up, and to a
degree they are justified.

In my view, Russia could have done more for Armenia and can do more in
the future, taking account of the concerns that our Armenian friends
have. I am referring to the position of Armenians in the Russian
Federation, protecting their rights and the opportunity for them to
live and work normally here. I am referring to the fate of those
Armenian enterprises that were turned over to Russian legal persons
for debts. It is obvious that these enterprises should function; we
should invest in them.

It is also important that the Armenian people not feel hurt by the
change in Gazprom policy – we could talk about giving direct economic
assistance, which would compensate for their losses. Money is being
appropriated for foreign aid programmes today for the first time in
the history of the Russian Federation, and Armenia, as a Russian
partner, should expect a certain share of this aid.

[Tsuladze] Great concern is being seen in Armenia in connection with
the killing of Armenians in Moscow. Some are inclined to consider
these murders politically motivated. Is that true?

[Nikonov] There is no anti-Armenian campaign in Russia. Unfortunately,
like any European country and like the United States, we have
nationalists and skinheads. We see what is happening in the suburbs of
Paris, in Texas, and in Germany. Such attitudes are, unfortunately,
widespread in Russia too. People of the most diverse nationalities
become victims of this unmotivated ethnic cruelty. It also happens to
Russians, Chechens, Tajiks, Uzbeks, and so on. Firm steps are being
taken against this by the RF president and law enforcement organs. The
Public Chamber is also getting into the fight.

[Tsuladze] Returning to the subject of elections, what are the
probable scenarios for the change of government in Armenia with the
departure of Kocharyan?

[Nikonov] First we have to wait for the parliamentary elections. It
seems to me that the political force that turns up as the leader in
the parliamentary elections will have a good chance of victory in the
presidential election as well. At the same time, I think that
businessman Gagik Tsarukyan, who heads the Flourishing Armenia Party,
is a man who entered politics recently and would hardly set such a
goal for himself. Most likely the "successor" will come from the ranks
of the Republican Party, which current Armenian President Robert
Kocharyan took part in creating.

Judging by the sociological surveys, public opinion sees Serge
Sarkisyan, who is now the minister of defence and heads the country’s
Security Council, as the likely "successor." He is a man who received
a philological education but by the will of fate became one of the
commanding officers of the Karabakh Army. He is a major figure in the
law enforcement and security structures of Armenia today. He is a team
player who has pretty good relations with the Russian leadership and
is unquestionably a supporter of strengthening cooperation between
Russia and Armenia. He enjoys obvious support in Moscow. It is
important to emphasize that Sarkisyan does not arouse any antipathy in
the West either.

As for other candidates for the presidency, they can only hope for
something if they have serious outside support and only if there is a
destabilization, which is absolutely unacceptable for Armenia.

[Tsuladze] Is it possible that "orange" techniques could be used in
Armenia?

Is the West involved in any games there?

[Nikonov] Obviously a game is underway. This is seen by the
publications of certain candidates in the Western media, which is
always evidence that Western consultants have been brought in to
work. The "orange" techniques were never put away in the archives
anywhere. There have been attempts to use them in all past elections
in post-Soviet space, including in states where these techniques did
not work. I absolutely do not rule out the possibility that an
"orange" scenario has been planned as a back-up for Armenia. The
procedures for realizing this scenario are quite well known.

[Tsuladze] What is your prediction for development of the situation in
Armenia and the further fate of Russian-Armenian relations?

[Nikonov] As for the election campaign in Armenia, for now the
dynamics of the election ratings tell us that the Republican Party,
which has been increasing its electorate from poll to poll, should
take first place. The Flourishing Armenia Party’s growth has slowed
down a little. But in any case, it is obvious that these two parties
will be a majority in the future Armenian parliament. Inasmuch as both
parties cooperate with the government, Robert Kocharyan and his team
will have a parliamentary majority.

Three or four political forces that are now on the brink of passing
the five-per cent barrier will also get into parliament. With some
degree of likelihood we can say that National Unification and Stepan
Demirchyan’s People’s Party of Armenia will get in, and the Dashnaks,
the oldest party in Armenia, have their core electorate. But the
future of Country of Law and Artur Bagdasaryan personally will depend
on how much outside forces invest in him.

As for Russian-Armenian relations, their nature will depend on who
comes to power in Yerevan. A strengthening of the political groups
that are oriented to distancing from Russia could cause a certain
destabilization in the Transcaucasus. At the same time, it is obvious
that keeping the current team in power and a victory by Serge
Sarkisyan in the presidential election would give a positive charge to
Russian-Armenian relations and make it possible to move to a higher
level of mutually advantageous cooperation.