POLL WARNS US OVER ARMENIAN RESOLUTION

Today’s Zaman, Turkey
April 9 2007

An overwhelming majority of Turks oppose two different resolutions
on Armenian claims of genocide currently pending in the US Senate
and House of Representatives, and a massive portion of Turkish
society believes relations with Armenia and the United States will
be negatively affected if Congress passes the resolutions, a survey
of opinion conducted by a US-based group has shown.

The poll, recently conducted by Terror Free Tomorrow, revealed that
Turks felt so powerfully about this issue that should a resolution
pass, 83 percent would oppose Turkey assisting the United States
in Iraq. Almost four-fifths of Turks favor strong action by the
Turkish government if a resolution is passed, including suspension
of diplomatic relations.

Two similar resolutions, both urging the US administration to
recognize an alleged genocide of Armenians, have been presented to
both the House of Representatives and the Senate and they are now
awaiting a vote. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi is a strong supporter of
the resolution and, contrary to the past, when interventions from the
US administration stopped passage of similar resolutions, analysts
say chances are high that the resolutions will this time be passed.

Turkey has warned that passage of any such resolution would seriously
harm relations with Washington, calling the move "poisonous." Ankara
categorically denies Armenian allegations of genocide at the hands of
the late Ottoman Empire and says there were killings on both sides
when Anatolian Armenians took up arms against the Ottoman Empire in
collaboration with the invading Russian army in hope of claiming some
part of eastern Anatolia for an independent Armenian state.

Terror Free Tomorrow, whose advisory board is led by Republican Senator
John McCain and former 9/11 Commission chairs Thomas Kean and Lee
Hamilton, acknowledges that the alleged genocide took place. "The
genocide of innocent Armenian civilians in the waning days of the
Ottoman Empire must be universally acknowledged – even if condemning
the mass killings as genocide provokes ire of most Turks," wrote
Kenneth Ballen, president of Terror Free Tomorrow, in an editorial
for the study. "That fact must never be the issue."

He says, however, that passing a resolution on the issue would harden
public attitudes in Turkey, as Turkish-Armenian journalist Hrant Dink,
assassinated by a teenage gunman in January in Ýstanbul, had said.

Analysts say given the widespread sympathy among the US congressmen
toward the Armenian allegations, the only way to prevent the passage
of a "genocide" resolution is to convince the congressmen on the
devastating impacts it would deliver in US-Turkish relations.The Terror
Free Tomorrow survey, conducted in 15 provinces in Turkey between
January 27, 2007 and February 8, 2007 with a total of 1,021 interviews,
showed that some 78 percent of Turks oppose the resolution by the US
Congress on the alleged genocide. The most important reason why Turks
oppose such a resolution is they do not consider the US Congress
to be a neutral judge of this historical issue (42 percent). Some
36 percent say an Armenian genocide never happened and another 18
percent say the issue should be resolved by historians.

Asked why the US Congress would approve a resolution on the alleged
genocide, 42 percent of the respondents cited anti-Muslim feelings
in the US and some 31 percent said it was due to domestic politics
in the United States. Another 12 percent said the "Armenian genocide"
was a proven historical fact, according to the poll.

If the US Congress approves a "genocide" resolution, 83 percent said
they would oppose or strongly oppose Turkey assisting the United
States in Iraq; 73 percent said it would worsen their opinion of the
United States; 78 percent said they would boycott American products,
vote for candidates that oppose the United States or demonstrate.

Only 11 percent said they would take no action.

Asked what measures the Turkish government should take in case the
Congress passes the resolution, 24 percent said it should issue an
official protest to the US and 29.9 percent said it should suspend
diplomatic ties with Washington. Only 6.7 percent said the government
should take no action.

On relations with Armenia, 73 percent said they think the passage of
the resolution would worsen relations between Turkey and Armenia. 84
percent of those who now have a very favorable opinion of the US
would change their opinion for the worse.

The survey also found that although most Turks are opposed to a
Congress resolution on the issue, three-quarters of all Turks would
accept scholarly study on what happened in that period of history.

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