WILL ARMENIA TURN ORANGE?

RIA Novosti, Russia
April 11 2007

MOSCOW. (Political analyst Nikolai Vavilkin for RIA Novosti) – This
year will be one of the most important in Armenia’s post-Soviet
independent history.

With the parliamentary election set for May 2007 and the presidential
election for March 2008, this South Caucasian republic is in for 12
months of intense election battles.

The winner of the presidential race could be determined by the
parliamentary election. Under the 2005 constitution, the party that
wins control of parliament will nominate the prime minister and the
speaker, and will have an opportunity to fight for the presidency
in 2008.

Presidential elections in all former Soviet republics carry the
risk of political upheavals. There has not been a change of power
at all in some of them, including Kazakhstan and other Central Asian
republics. But elections in Ukraine and Georgia were accompanied by
upheavals later called "orange" or "color" revolutions, with public
clashes, turbulent demonstrations, and a transfer of power to a new,
less legitimate government.

When election results are contested in a former Soviet republic, the
West, represented by state and supra-national democratic institutions,
usually denounces the excessive use of administrative resources by the
ruling party. Partly with that as a justification, the Parliamentary
Assembly of the Council of Europe (PACE), the Organization for
Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE), the European Union, the
administrations of the United States and EU countries, and other
Western agencies invariably take the side of the force that contests
the election results.

The pro-government political parties in Armenia appear to have the
strongest positions now. Many believe that they will share victory in
the parliamentary elections and therefore posts in the government and
the leadership of the new parliament. This is quite likely because the
current Armenian opposition parties are dependent on their leaders,
and the general public knows very little, if anything, about their
programs.

The forces that rely on Western political and social values and
development paths stand apart from the other opposition parties. One
of them is the party of the former speaker of parliament, Artur
Bagdasaryan. Another is the movement led by Raffi Ovannisyan, former
minister of foreign affairs and a U.S. national who has become an
Armenian citizen.

Inspired by the example of neighboring countries, the new pro-Western
forces in Armenia attend all meetings of international organizations,
tirelessly proclaim their commitment to European values, and complain
that Armenia is so far not up to the European mark.

European organizations give such figures a pat on the back and try
to involve them in their activities. Some of these figures have
earned quite a reputation, while others are staying in the shadows,
and their involvement in the work of foreign organizations has so
far remained unnoticed by the Armenian, let alone Russian, public.

Shavarsh Kocharyan, a deputy in the Armenian parliament, was on
the Armenian delegation to PACE for several years and was removed
in 2006. This, however, has not stopped him from maintaining, and
possibly strengthening, his ties with that influential European body.

Since leaving, Kocharyan has been invited to Strasbourg three times,
attending PACE meetings on trips paid for by the organization.

The heads of the Council of Europe’s observer missions at elections
are traditionally appointed by one of the CE parties on a rotating
basis. When the head of a mission for the Armenian elections was
selected, it was the turn of the European Democrats, a party dominated
by ethnic Russians. Many expected that the post would be given to a
Russian, but the PACE Bureau changed the rules of the game, and the
post was given to Leo Platvoet of the Netherlands.

A change in Armenia’s policy, or a political destabilization of the
republic, could undermine Russia’s influence in the region, which
largely depends on its alliance with Armenia. Therefore, Russia needs
Armenia to remain stable and stick to the same policies after the
parliamentary and presidential elections. It will also benefit if
the forces wishing to strengthen the alliance with Russia remain at
the country’s helm.

The opinions expressed in this article are the author’s and do not
necessarily represent those of RIA Novosti.