PERFECT POLITICAL STORM LEADS TO GLENDALE UPSET
By Eugene Tong, Staff Writer

LA Daily News
Last Updated:04/04/2007 10:21:06 PM PDT

GLENDALE – How did the best-financed incumbent lose his City
Council seat, a mayor widely believed to be vulnerable retain his
and a community advocate who once fell short of a win emerge as
top vote-getter?

For Glendale City Hall pundits, Tuesday night’s surprising election
results could be rooted in an odd political convergence: a strong
grass-roots campaign by the newly elected John Drayman, who rode an
anti-incumbent tide into office, coupled with a miscalculation from
those counting on Armenian politics to win the day.

Councilman Ara Najarian said he believes Drayman, president of the
Montrose Shopping Park Association, connected with homeowners in
north Glendale who are anxious about development and felt the current
council ignored their concerns.

"He just hit a home run with those voters," said Najarian, who
supported incumbents Dave Weaver and Rafi Manoukian. "There were
clearly some anti-incumbent sentiments. … I think there was a
perception by the people that the incumbents were not responsive to
their issues."

Manoukian was unavailable for comment Wednesday.

Win for Weaver

As for Mayor Weaver, many believe it wasn’t so much that he won as
that Manoukian, a two-term councilman, failed to capture enough votes
from his Armenian base. Weaver also might have benefited from voters
seeking to reduce the council’s Armenian-American majority.

"(Weaver) got lucky and he got the right last name," said Eric
Hacopian, a veteran political consultant who worked on the Manoukian
campaign.

"I do not think Rafi was in any way unpopular. It was something
that was really beyond him. … Glendale is a very ethnically
polarized city. There were more Armenian candidates than non-Armenian
candidates. There were far more places for Rafi’s votes to go."

With all precincts and absentee ballots counted, Drayman, 48, was
elected to the five-member council early Wednesday with 23.3 percent
of the vote, while Weaver bested Manoukian to win a fourth term with
17.9 percent.

Manoukian, the race’s top fundraiser with a war chest of more than
$200,000, finished third with 16 percent in the eight-way race for two
seats on the council governing this city of 207,000. The election,
which included a school board and a college board race, drew a 23
percent turnout from the city’s 95,000 registered voters.

For Drayman, it was a hard-earned victory after coming just 503 votes
shy of a council seat in 2005. He attributed his win to a strong
door-to-door campaign by his volunteers, who descended throughout the
city, including primarily Armenian and working-class south Glendale.

"We had a message that resonated with the voters," he said. "I hope
to be a fire under the pot to try to move things along (within the
council)."

A bridge-builder

Drayman also was aligned with Manoukian – even contributing to his
campaign – and is widely seen as a bridge-builder in this city where
at least one-third of residents are now of Armenian descent. More than
two decades ago, the city was primarily Anglo-Saxon and Protestant.

"We’re very divided as a city," Drayman said. "In Montrose, we’re a
microcosm of the city as a whole. About one-third of the businesses
are owned by those of Armenian descent. We’ve gotten beyond these
issues. I want to bring that concept to the rest of the city."

And in politics, nothing is more valued than the ability to cross
over and build coalitions, Hacopian said.

"Whenever there is a change in demographics in which people who used to
have all the political power see it slipping away, they don’t like it,"
he said. "What you need are individuals who can cross this bridge."

Meanwhile, Manoukian’s defeat played-out as a classic case
of divide and conquer. The most well-financed and qualified
Armenian-American candidate on paper, he was pitted against three
other Armenian-Americans who split the ethnic vote.

Among them, Glendale Unified School District board member Greg
Krikorian was fourth with 15.6 percent; immigration consultant Chahe
Keuroghelian had 11.8 percent and TV host Vrej Agajanian took in
6.3 percent.

"We still have a strong voter identification to candidates that
reflects their own cultural and linguistic background," said Jaime
Regalado, director of the Pat Brown Institute at California State
University, Los Angeles. "Playing that card too much and in a very
close race could in fact lose some votes."

The council’s current composition, with three council members of
Armenian descent, also appeared to work against Manoukian.

"Some of the voters were concerned that we maintain a balance on
the council – an ethnic balance as well as a geographical balance,"
Najarian said. "With the prospect of four Armenians ending up on
council, people wanted to step back.

No scapegoat

In fact, some Armenian-Americans were glad to lose their council
majority.

"I think it’s a good thing," said Arthur Minassian, an attorney and
local resident. "If anything goes wrong, people will think twice
before scapegoating the Armenians."

But if you ask Weaver, he would attribute his win to low-key but
strategic campaigning – he only sent out three mailers and ran
primarily on his record at candidate forums – despite being outfunded
by Manoukian.

"Money doesn’t necessarily win elections," he said. "I don’t think
endorsements win elections either. People are intelligent enough to
make their own decisions."

Weaver also said he benefited from broad-based support from different
ethnic groups.

"That’s what Glendale is," he said. "It’s a blend of cultures, and
I had support from all those stripes."

The incoming council hews closer to the city’s actual demographics –
besides council members Najarian and Bob Yousefian, both of Armenian
descent, and Weaver, who is white and married to an Asian-American;
there’s also Frank Quintero, who is Latino. They will be joined by
Drayman, a self-proclaimed Jewish atheist.

From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress