Los Angeles Times, CA
April 21 2007

Armenian genocide resolution far from certain

Larger forces may quash a measure on large-scale deaths in Turkey
almost a century ago.

By Richard Simon, Times Staff Writer
April 21, 2007

WASHINGTON – It was the year 2000, and Rep. George P. Radanovich was
on his way to the Capitol, expecting the House to pass a long-debated
resolution he was sponsoring to recognize the Armenian genocide almost
a century ago.

But just as the Republican from Mariposa prepared to step onto the
House floor, Speaker J. Dennis Hastert (R-Ill.) called off the vote
because President Clinton personally had warned him that the symbolic
but emotion-charged resolution could damage national security.

Turkey, an important U.S. ally, long has insisted that the deaths of
about 1 million Armenians in the waning days of the Ottoman Empire
were not acts of genocide.

Seven years later, however, with Congress in the hands of Democrats,
the resolution’s backers believe they stand their best chance yet of
winning passage – even though the Bush administration, like previous
Democratic and Republican administrations, is working hard to kill it.

Radanovich is predicting that the resolution’s fate once again
will come down to a phone call between the president and the House
speaker. This time the speaker is Democrat Nancy Pelosi of San
Francisco, who as a member of the Congressional Caucus on Armenian
Issues has been a passionate supporter of the genocide resolution.

But there’s a rub:

During almost 20 years representing the Bay Area, home to thousands
of voters of Armenian descent, Pelosi has had a relatively free hand
in deciding her position on the volatile issue. But today she comes
at it as a leader of the Democratic Party and a high-profile player
in the U.S. government.

She has shown, by her maneuvering on Iraq war funding and her recent
visit to Syria, that she is not reluctant to take on the White House.

And she has learned that Republicans will be quick to seize any
opportunity to brand her a lightweight in foreign affairs.

Soner Cagaptay, director of the Turkish research program at the
Washington Institute for Near East Policy, said Pelosi must now weigh
the resolution "through a perspective she never did before."

*

Also in a bind

And the speaker is not the only one in a bind on the issue. The Israeli
government and many of its U.S. supporters face similar crosscurrents
because opposing genocide is at the core of the Jewish state, but
Turkey is the closest thing to an ally Israel has in the Muslim world.

As a result, although its prospects are bright, the resolution is
far from assured of passage.

Radanovich predicted that if the leadership decided to bring it to
the floor, President Bush would call Pelosi and ask her not to do so,
in the interest of national security. Then, said Radanovich, usually a
Bush ally, "Pelosi is going to have to make a choice: to agree with the
president or respectfully disagree." Radanovich said that he hoped she
"respectfully disagrees" and puts the measure to a vote.

"If it gets to the floor," he said, "it passes."

Pelosi hasn’t signaled whether she will schedule a vote.

The resolution is supported by 191 House members, the most sponsors
it has had in 20 years, according to the Armenian National Committee
of America. Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.) backs it, as
do more than a quarter of his colleagues. California’s two Democratic
senators, Dianne Feinstein and Barbara Boxer, are among them.

Mark Parris, a U.S. ambassador to Turkey during the Clinton
administration who now is at the Brookings Institution, said that
when the Democrats won control of Congress in November, "the Turks
knew there was going to be a problem."

Almost everyone, including the Turkish government, agrees that
hundreds of thousands of Armenians died in eastern Turkey between
1915 and 1918 as World War I and the crumbling of the Ottoman Empire
engulfed the region in turmoil. It’s how they perished that continues
to stir ferocious disagreement.

Armenians, along with most historians and many Western governments,
say more than 1 million died at the hands of Turkish forces – victims
of either murder or mass deportation that led hundreds of thousands
to succumb to exposure and disease.

Turks say there was no government-sponsored program targeting
Armenians. Rather, they insist, large numbers of Armenians – and
Turks – died in the chaos of war and an uprising staged by Armenians
seeking to capitalize on a government weakened by World War I.

"There were numerous deaths on both sides, due to war, disease,
hunger and civil strife," the Turkish American Heritage Political
Action Committee said in a recent letter to lawmakers.

*

Not forgetting

Though the events lie far in the past, Armenians and Armenian Americans
have worked hard to keep the memory alive. The Turkish government and
the ultranationalists who are resurgent in that country have worked
equally hard to keep the U.S. government from taking a position.

Caught in the middle of the debate are Israel and its supporters.

"It’s a terrible predicament," said David Twersky of the American
Jewish Congress. "As Jews, we have a tremendous reverence for the
moral imperatives of history. But then there is the aspect that no
Muslim country is closer to Israel than Turkey. So we feel paralyzed
by a set of conflicting emotions."

Turkish officials say the renewed push to recognize an Armenian
genocide could not come at a worse time.

The issue is so incendiary that even a symbolic recognition by
Congress could embolden ultranationalists there to unleash enough
anti-American sentiment to shut down important U.S. military bases
and affect Washington’s position throughout the Middle East.

Civilian and military leaders of the Turkish government, including
Foreign Minister Abdullah Gul, met at a Washington hotel in February
with more than a dozen leaders of major Jewish organizations
in an effort to prevent action on the resolution. Members of the
Anti-Defamation League and the American Israel Public Affairs Committee
took part in the gathering.

"I believe the right thing for the Jewish community is to recognize
the Armenian genocide as a fact, because virtually every historian
and scholar of note in this area calls it a genocide," said Morton
Klein, president of the Zionist Organization of America. "As friends
of Turkey, we need to encourage them to just recognize the truth,
honor the victims and be done with it. This would only enhance Turkey’s
standing in the world."

Other Jewish leaders, believing the security needs of the U.S. and
Israel trump distant history, are siding with Turkey.

"I don’t think a bill in Congress will help reconcile this issue. The
resolution takes a position. It comes to a judgment," said Abraham H.

Foxman, national director of the Anti-Defamation League. "The Turks and
Armenians need to revisit their past. The Jewish community shouldn’t
be the arbiter of that history," he said. "And I don’t think the
U.S. Congress should be the arbiter either."

*

Events planned

Tuesday is Armenian Genocide Remembrance Day, and events are planned
across the country to press for action on Capitol Hill. There are an
estimated 1 million to 1.5 million Americans of Armenian descent.

The pending congressional resolution calls on the president to
"accurately characterize the systematic and deliberate annihilation of
1.5 million Armenians as genocide." It also calls on the president to
ensure that U.S. foreign policy reflects "appropriate understanding
and sensitivity concerning issues related to human rights, ethnic
cleansing, and genocide documented in the United States record relating
to the Armenian genocide."

Similar resolutions were approved by the House in 1975 and 1984, but
never made it through the Senate. A 1990 resolution was blocked by a
Senate filibuster. The outlook this year in that chamber is uncertain.

Although the word "genocide" stirs passionate feelings, Los Angeles
Times policy is to use it because a large body of historical evidence
and authoritative recent research support the accuracy of the term
to describe the events.

At least one Turkish historian, Taner Akcam, has concluded that the
Turkish government did commit genocide against the Armenians. In his
book "A Shameful Act," Akcam cites numerous Ottoman documents that he
says prove beyond a doubt that the Turkish leaders, under the cover
of World War I, planned and carried out the murder of more than half
of the Armenian people.

"For Turks to discuss the genocide openly, we would have to begin
by conceding that some of our national fathers were thieves and
murderers," said Akcam, who teaches at the University of Minnesota.

"This is why the subject is so taboo."

Rep. Adam B. Schiff (D-Burbank), one of the resolution’s chief
sponsors, said: "One way you can tell that prospects for passage
have improved this year is the intensity of the opposition." Schiff’s
district is home to more Armenian Americans than any other.

Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice and Defense Secretary Robert M.

Gates are among those working to scuttle the measure, contending it
could jeopardize Turkey’s support for U.S. troops fighting in Iraq
and Afghanistan.

And a steady stream of Turkish officials, government-hired Washington
lobbyists and companies with business interests in Turkey have been
moving through Capitol offices, warning of a diplomatic backlash if
the resolution passes.

Some say Pelosi’s past support for the measure does not assure she will
push for a vote anytime soon. No vote has been scheduled in the House
Foreign Affairs Committee or the Senate Foreign Relations Committee,
usually the first stops for such legislation.

"I’m absolutely confident that, ultimately, Speaker Pelosi will do
what is in the best interests of our nation," said Rep. Robert Wexler
(D-Fla.), co-chairman of the Congressional Caucus on Turkey and an
opponent of the resolution. He noted that supplies destined for U.S.
troops in Iraq and Afghanistan pass through Turkey.

Radanovich dismissed such concern, saying: "The Turkish government
will throw a fit, and three months later, they’ll be over it."