TURKEY’S TROUBLES AND CHANCES SURROUNDING THE ENERGY STRATEGY
Ahmet Turker

Journal of Turkish Weekly, Turkey
April 23 2007

Turkey’s energy strategy designed as a "hub" and/or "market (trader)"
is not an easy goal to achieve. Being a rather stable country in an
unstable region, passing through transitions to be a European country,
geopolitics are all have positive impacts on this strategy.

However, are these political and diplomatic parameters are enough to
make Turkey a strategic energy corridor?

Maybe the question is wrong. After all, with its gas and oil pipelines,
Turkey is already an energy corridor. But turning this into a strategic
asset requires more than steel pipes and ports.

Turkey, among other countries in the region, is not free of problems.

These problems may constitute a big obstacle in front of EU membership
which may only happen in the very long run.

This also depends what Turks and Europeans understand from being a
"European country". If it is based on economic integration, Turkey’s
energy strategy and its growing population (and domestic market)
is an advantage to EU. But if we understand a "social integration"
as well, that may take some time.

So, the economic and social parameters are the tides for Turkey’s
EU membership. No decision is easy for both sides. But energy and
energy security may play a great deal in this decisive process in
the following years.

Turkey’s huge experience with terrorism and number of experiences with
externally inflicted instabilities is a chance for Turkey in this
unstable region. Being a NATO member and getting on fine -not well-
with the problematic Bush government is also the country’s success.

Of course, one can argue that Turkey had no choice but to be a NATO
member during the cold war era and US’s influence on Turkey as the
dominant foreign effect on the country, but this doesn’t change the
fact that Turkey is a Muslim NATO member and has started membership
process with EU.

Turkey does not have any significant hydrocarbon resources of itself.

It is Iran, Turkmenistan, Russia, Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan or Iraq that
will be using the Turkish corridor. Most of these countries are not
stable, democratic regimes which is a trouble for the corridor, but
their reserves and willingness to have alternative ways for accessing
world markets are a chance for Turkey

Recently, Financial Times reported that Iraq’s reserves may be 100bn
barrels more according to IHS, well known for their CERA. These
reserves, if happens to be easily extractable and profitable may also
be a chance for Turkey, too. But can we talk about an Iraqi security
regardless of Syria and Iran?

Syria and Iran, being neighbors of Turkey, are problematic too. Any
instability caused in these countries may well be harmful to Turkey’s
regional security. US has not achieved control in Iraq and seems
like failing.

These countries are essential for Turkey’s and Iraq’s security. So
it is not only internal stability that adds value to Turkey’s energy
strategy, but these countries development and opening to the world
is essential. Iran for example is losing power due to underinvestment
in the energy sector.

On the other hand, Turkey is badly affected by Iraq war during Bush
Senior and now Bush Junior. Turks welcoming of the Iraqi Kurds during
Saddam’s chemical attack on them has been a one-sided friendship
towards the pragmatist Kurds. This is also the curse of the whole
region; the leaders thinking themselves wiser than the others fail
to make up long term good relations.

However, Turkey once again may change this, if it is really a major
power in the region. A stable pipeline transit between these areas
and Turkey will transform both sides. The challenge is how to bank
the selfish pragmatism of these tribal leaders in favour of Turkey
and avoiding any one sided -from Turkey’s side- "brother" rhetoric.

In the Caucasus, BTC pipeline is a great success, but how much of
this is Turkey’s or major oil companys’ may be disputed. But the
BTC’s success has also woken up the bear for a move. Burgas-Dedeagac
(Alexandropolis) pipeline is a small but a "should be watched
carefully" Russian counter move.

Burgas-Dedeagac is also a chance for relieveing the highly
crowded Bosporus, but what about the Samsun-Ceyhan pipeline? The
oil transferred is in control of Russia and with the choice of
Burgas-Dedeagac, Russia showed that it’s reluctance for Samsun-Ceyhan.

Turkey’s other chance is Azerbaijan, or we should say Azerbaijan’s
chance is Turkey and of course Georgia. Unfortunately, Armenia is the
common problem for both countries. But Azerbaijan has a rapidly growing
economy and has nearly the same language with Turks of Anatolia.

As Azerbaijan being a chance for Turkey, it will not be an exaggeration
to condemn Turkish political and diplomatic circles of not giving
enough importance to this "relative" country. If Turkey has given the
same importance of Northern Cyprus and Armenian problem to Azerbaijan
and Kazakhstan, the energy strategy may have been designed in a more
multilateral and beneficial way for both three countries.

It should be emphasized that with this strategy Turkey should enjoy
more foreign direct investment and petrodollars as well as cultural
richness of these countries. Unfortunately, who will do this? It all
boils down to humans.

If the chance knocks your door and if there is no one inside or if
everyone is busy for another thing to welcome the chance, the chances
may be wasted. The geopolitical chance needs man power to be welcomed.

Even the discussions of Kyoto agreement has been reduced to merely
signing or not signing the agreement instead of a progressive plan
to get ready for signing the agreement. Public has not been preached
wholly other than "signing will harm our economy".

So, how many diplomats, "real" energy specialists, energy departments,
research and development efforts is going on in Turkey?

In the hands of international relations experts, the chances will
be wasted within the realist and liberalist competition. Turkey
needs more economists, energy law experts, energy specialists and
environmental scientists.

Saying more is even an underestimation, playing energy politics in a
region of instability, Putin nationalism and insecurity needs a lot
of experts those whole heartedly knows the dynamics of the region and
energy. Without this man power, Turkey’s energy strategy will only be
a lucky or damned boat swimming through the tides of chance and curse.

This commentary is from USAK’s Energy Review Newsletter