A RUSSIAN POLITICAL ANALYST SAYS U. S. MILITARY INTERFERENCE TO IRAN CANNOT SOLVE IRANIAN NUCLEAR ISSUE, ON CONTRARY MAY AGGRAVATE IT

Trend News Agency, Azerbaijan
May 1 2007

U. S. A., Washington/ Trend , corr. A. Gara/ Dmitriy Trenin, a
political analyst, the Deputy of the Director of the Moscow Carnegie
Centre, considers that U. S. possible military interference to Iran
cannot solve the issue around the Nuclear Programme of this country,
but on the contrary it may aggravate it.

In his interview to Trend, which was taken in Washington, Mr. Trenin
expressed a hope that the U.S. military interference to Iran would not
take place, however he added that it might happen. "We still have an
opportunity to solve the Iranian nuclear issue more effectively than
a military interference that, in my opinion, could not settle this
problem. If you remember, in 1981, the Israeli Air Force efficiently
stroke on Iraq and destroyed the nuclear reactor of Osirak on the
territory of this country.. The Iraqi Nuclear Programme was settled
this way. Today it is very difficult to rule such a military operation
due to some technical reasons," said the Russian political analyst.

According to Mr. Trenin, the involvement of such countries like
Azerbaijan, Armenia, and Georgia in the U. S. possible military blow on
Iran is quite possible. "However, I do not think that Azerbaijan will
closely cooperate with Americans if they launch this military attack,"
he said by adding that the U. S. policy is subjected to changes, but
the geopolitical neighbourhood with Iran is not. At the same time,
Armenia is not as close to U. S. in this issue as Azerbaijan. Georgia,
in its turn, hopes that Iranian gas will become an alternative to
Russian one, and Georgian cooperation with Americans in this issue
will have a blow on Georgian-Iranian relations.

The political expert added that possible military actions, which
might be taken against Iran, would create a chaos that would rapidly
change the situation in the whole region for the worse. " Russia
will certainly be far from the possible American attack. It will
not support Iranian Army, but will blame Americans for the hostages
they launched. Military actions will make happy nobody, particularly
cannot solve the Iranian nuclear issue. I hope that U. S. will change
their mind toward trying another way out of the existing situation,
which will include elements on putting obstacles, containment, and
peaceful co-existence," he added.

According to the Russian political analyst, Iran is the largest
country in the region and will remain being it. " Iran is one of those
countries that zealously keeps its centuries-oil traditions, and one
should keep in mind that it is impossible to break Iran for a long
time. Iran is currently on the rise. Therefore, there is an issue of
how to integrate this country to turn it into a stabilizing force for
the security and prosperity in the whole region," concluded Mr. Trenin.