A RUSSIAN POLITICAL ANALYST SAYS NO CONFLICT IN CAUCASUS CAN BE SETTLED WITHOUT RUSSIA’S PARTICIPATION
Trend News Agency, Azerbaijan
May 2 2007
Azerbaijan, Baku/ Trend , corr. A. Gasimova/ Dmitriy Trenin, a
political analyst, the Deputy of the Director of the Moscow Carnegie
Centre, considers that no conflict in Caucasus can be settled without
participation or active cooperation with Russia.
In his interview taken in Washington, Mr. Trenin commented on
Russia’s possible approval of the resolution of so-called "frozen"
conflicts in the region. "The Russian consent on the resolution of the
Nagorno-Karabakh issue is a very weighty issue. I do not think that
Russia giving its consent for the resolution of conflict in Caucasus
is what needs to be done," said the Russian expert and added that it
would be foolish to expect the resolution of the conflict without
taking into consideration the interests and wishes of Russia, or
Russia’s immediate involvement with these conflicts.
According to Mr. Trenin, Georgia’s possible membership in NATO will
not cause a conflict between Russia and NATO, "however we should
think about Georgia’s involvement in NATO, as they have some unsettled
conflicts on their territory". Touching upon the Georgian-Abkhazian
conflict, the political analyst said most of the population of
Abkhazia has Russian passports, thereby being Russian citizens. All
that may aggravate the issue, and this fact should also be taken into
consideration by Georgia when joining NATO.
The political analyst considers that the Russian and American interests
in Caucasus are quite different. This region is more important for
Russia, though the U. S. is presently a weightier player on the
international political arena. "Russian interests in the region are
based upon the ideas that this country remains an empire, which is
turning into a great strength. It is true that South Caucasus were
the former territories of the Russian Empire and then the Soviet Union.
A century ago, the Russian Prime-Minister, Sergey Vitte, stated that
there was no conception of Russia, there was just the Russian Empire.
Nowadays, Russian leaders have changed this conception. They say
that there is Russia and we focus our attention on the interests of
Russia. It is a very important differentiation," stresses Mr. Trenin.
According to him, Russia is carrying its policy following the principle
of neighbourhood, this principle is based on what is good for Russia. "
Russia should make these countries safe and secure for business in
their countries. Russia is pushing its interest in these countries
with an increasing energy.
Economic interests such as the energy sector are Russia’s priority. .
The other type of interest is a strategic one. Russia is keen to feel
convenient in this region. "To feel convenient for Russia means that
there is no-one else on your territory, who may cause an inconvenience
to Russia. Russia views some FSU countries’ striving for NATO, as
well as presenting their territories for foreign bases, particularly
American ones that harm its interest in the FSU countries. This type
of the development of the situation is considered as playing without
the winner," considers the expert.
According to Mr. Trenin, U. S. A., for its part, views the region
from points of view of development of democracy and interests in
energy sector. "The Caspian region is a very important energy source
for the U. S. and this country seeks to open an access for energy
carriers flowing directly to the West leaving Russia’s side. From this
position, America has a great interest in establishing good relations
with Azerbaijan. The U. S. policy ranges between the development of
democracy and economic interests and the U. S. A. is without fail
against the resurrection of the Russian Empire," concluded the Russian
political analyst.