ARMENIA: REGIME PARTIES DOMINATE POLL
By Rita Karapetian in Yerevan

Institute for War and Peace Reporting, UK
May 3 2007

Two pro-government parties in uneasy truce ahead of crucial
parliamentary election.

Two contrasting parties linked to the governing elite are dominating
Armenia’s parliamentary elections, with much of the drama being
provided by the awkward rivalry between them. The polls are widely
being seen as a dress rehearsal for next year’s presidential election.

"On May 12 the main fight will be between political forces within the
system of power," said Samvel Nikoyan, a parliamentary deputy from the
Republican Party – one of the two parties dominating the pre-election
period. He dismissed the chances of the opposition wining a majority
in parliament.

The Republican Party currently comprises the main group in parliament
and is led by Serzh Sarkisian, who recently became prime minister
after many years serving as defence minister. Sarkisian is also the
favourite to succeed Robert Kocharian when his second and final term
as president ends next year.

The party’s main rival is Prosperous Armenia, an electoral movement
founded by the man frequently said to be the country’s richest
businessman, former champion wrestler Gagik Tsarukian. Prosperous
Armenia is closely linked to President Kocharian.

The leaders of the two parties, which get the lion’s share of
television news coverage, do not criticise one another, but observers
see tensions underneath.

Of the 131 seats in parliament, 41 will be elected from constituencies
and 90 proportionally from lists of parties, which collect more than
five per cent of the overall vote. The battle in the 41 constituencies
that cover the country will not only between party candidates but
candidates nominated by groups of voters.

The two parties’ programmes are similar. Tsarukian said that the
Republican Party had achieved high levels of economic growth, which
his party wanted to see continue.

Vardan Bostanjian, one of the leaders of Prosperous Armenia, said
that he "feels love towards the Republican Party of Armenia which he
regards not as an enemy but as a rival".

The parliamentary leader of the Republican Party Galust Sahakian has
said that he thinks it possible that the two parties will collaborate
in the next parliament.

The rivalry between the two parties is mostly hidden from view and
the subject of rumour and speculation. Two of the Yerevan offices of
Prosperous Armenia were blown up in explosions in April. According to
one press report, Republican Party activists were behind the blasts
while another report blamed Prosperous Armenia itself.

Following the explosions, Prosperous Armenia issued a call for the
election campaign to remain a civilised struggle, while the Republican
Party made a statement saying that certain forces were trying to
destabilise the situation. Many observers saw these statements by
the two favourites in the parliamentary poll as being aimed at one
another – although no names were named.

Political commentator Vahan Vardanian said that whatever deal had
been struck at the top, there was no agreement on the division of
roles amongst second-tier figures after the elections.

A leading opposition politician, Suren Sureniants, said neither of
the two should be called proper parties.

"There is the quasi Republican Party which serves the interests of
the clan of Serzh Sarkisian and the quasi Prosperous Armenia party
which serves the interest of the oligarchs who have gathered round
Robert Kocharian," said Sureniants.

The friendship and political alliance of Kocharian and Sarkisian, who
both come from Nagorny Karabakh, dates back more than 20 years. Some
are predicting that after he steps down, Kocharian will aim to become
prime minister if Sarkisian becomes president.

Sarkisian has said he will make his intentions clear on May 13, the day
after the parliamentary poll. He has already begun making high-profile
trips around the country and is leading the Republican Party’s election
campaign virtually single-handed, holding meetings with voters and
appearing on television. He not only appears in the party’s electoral
advertisements, but is seen constantly in television news reports.

Edvard Antinian, deputy chairman of the Liberal Progressive Party
of Armenia, said that the appointment of Sarkisian to the post of
prime minister to succeed Andranik Margarian, who died in March
unexpectedly of a heart attack, had damaged Sarkisian’s chances of
becoming president.

"It would have been better for Sarkisian if he had continued to be
the ‘grey cardinal’ who ran the government from behind the scenes,"
Antinian told IWPR, arguing that Sarkisian’s presidential ambitions
had been revealed too early.

Antinian said that Sarkisian’s elevation to head the Republican Party
had strengthened the position of the military and security faction
in the party, making it more aggressive towards Prosperous Armenia.

"Until recently the parties coordinated their actions with one another,
but that’s no longer happening," said Antinian.

The governing coalition formed after the last parliamentary elections
in 2003 between the Republican Party, the veteran nationalist party
Dashnaktsutiun and the Orinats Yerkir party has broken up.

Dashnaktsutiun is now critical of the government, while Orinats Yerkir
and its leader, former parliamentary speaker Artur Baghdasarian,
has gone into open opposition.

One of the leaders of Dashnaktsutiun, Hrant Margarian, announced that
they would not be supporting Sarkisian in the presidential election
but would nominate their own candidate.

Baghdasarian also has presidential ambitions and has set himself
up as a leading critic of the governing elite – which has recently
landed him in trouble.

The Russian-language newspaper Golos Armenii recently published
the transcript of a taped conversation that allegedly took place
in a Yerevan restaurant between Baghdasarian and British diplomat
Richard Hyde.

In the conversation, Baghdasarian is heard to argue that international
observers must come out with a forceful denunciation of the outcome
of the parliamentary elections.

President Kocharian called Baghdasarian a traitor. "It’s hard to
imagine that a former speaker could fall so low," he said."Someone
who has betrayed once is capable of doing it again."

Baghdasarian said the publication was a "provocation" designed to
discredit him ahead of the presidential elections, in which he plans
to stand.

As well as the Republican Party and Prosperous Armenia and the
two former members of the governing coalition, observers see two
other opposition parties as having a good chance of winning seats in
parliament – National Unity of former Yerevan mayor Artashes Geghamian
and Heritage of former foreign minister Raffi Hovanissian.

Rita Karapetian is a correspondent with Noyan Tapan news agency
in Yerevan.