PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS IN ARMENIA
Alexander Svarants, Vice-President of the Armenian Union of Russia, Moscow

Eurasian Home Analytical Resource, Russia
May 3 2007

The parliamentary elections in Armenia scheduled for May 12 are
of extreme importance to the Armenian society and the state. The
elections will have a direct influence upon the regional processes
in the South Caucasus region. The political configuration in Armenia
will be significant in terms of development of the strategic relations
and strategic partnership with Russia.

I believe that today’s situation in Russia resembles that in
Armenia in the context of the regular parliamentary and presidential
elections. According to the Constitutions, the Presidents of the
both states are to leave office after two presidential terms. The
two leaders are young and up-and-coming politicians.

In Armenia the future of President Robert Kocharian is an issue of
current importance. I think that the constitutional amendments that
give more power to the Parliament, the future Prime Minister and
President leave space for different options.

The coming parliamentary elections in Armenia are marked by divisions
in the opposition camp. To a large extent it may be the current
authorities’ merit. The relative stability in Armenia allows us to
suppose that a color revolution will not occur in the country.

More than that, the positions of the Armenian political parties in
power are strong while those of the ideological parties are weak. I
believe that the similarity between Armenia and Russia is that in both
countries in the run-up to the elections new parties supporting the
current authorities have been created. In Armenia it is "Prosperous
Armenia", in Russia it is "Fair Russia". I think that "Prosperous
Armenia" can get more than 20% of votes.

At last, it seems to me that the relations between the South Caucasian
states, the situation in Georgia and Azerbaijan and the West’s more
intense actions in that region will influence the parliamentary and
presidential elections in Armenia. And the West will try to support
its adherents in Armenia.

As regards the developments after the presidential elections in 2008,
current Prime Minister Serzh Sargsyan may most likely become the
election favorite and successor to the President. He is a very serious
and flexible politician that has gone through all the stages of the
political struggle. He was one of the leaders of the Nagorno-Karabakh
movement, the head of the military, security and law enforcement
agencies in Nagorno-Karabakh and Armenia. It is important that he
heads the intergovernmental committee on the economic cooperation
between Armenia and Russia.

It is not fortuitous that he was appointed Prime Minister. Sargsyan
controls the military, security and law enforcement as well as
economic and foreign-policy agencies. He is also the leader of the
Republican Party.

For all that I think that a reshuffle is possible. Current President
Robert Kocharian may be appointed Premier. This forecast is connected
with the fact that the Republican Party is the leader of the election
campaign, it can get up to 40% of votes. If the result of the
"Prosperous Armenia" is good enough, the majority will be 50-60%.

The coalition government may be formed with the participation of the
third force – the Armenian Revolutionary Federation "Dashnaktsutyun"
that expects to get over 10% of votes. I should say that it is the
only political party having ideological supporters in Armenia as well
as in the other countries where the million-strong diaspora lives.

The party members have significant influence in the USA. For all
that the USA cannot pin its hopes on that party alone. Washington is
seeking new political forces in Armenia.

It indicates that the party keeps its succession and is a serious
political force that has proved its capacity in the Nagorno-Karabakh
movement and comes out for improvement of relations between Russia
and Armenia.

The party members may participate in the coalition government. Both
Kocharian and Sargsyan favored the cessation of persecution of that
party and the release of its leaders and functionaries from prisons.

There is a question if Kocharian’s policy will go on in the context
of the strategic security course pursued towards Russia.

Predictability of the political changes in Armenia makes it possible
to suppose that the policy will be stable. The Armenian authorities
are not going to change their beliefs dramatically.

One should say that for the recent 16-17 years the West’s
representatives, in particular the U.S. former citizens, have become
members of the government. I think it is not a political problem. It
is normal relations between Armenia and the leading world countries.

What prevents Russia and Armenia from improving bilateral relations?

On the one hand, we came from the same state and we have common
culture, language and education. But we have been living in different
political formats for more than 15 years. For this time in Russia a
pleiad of worthy Armenian personnel has been educated. Their skills
can prove useful to the Armenian government in the sphere of economy,
defense and security.

The text is based on Alexander SVARANTS’ address to the round table
on April 27, in the Russian Agency of International Information RIA
Novosti, devoted to the parliamentary elections in Armenia.