Favourites of Armenian election race remain ruling parties – agency

Golos Armenii website, Yerevan
3 May 07

Armenia is to elect a new parliament on 12 May. The current ruling
parties are expected to gain the majority of seats in parliament and
form a new government. The article describes the election campaign as
smooth and fair. The analytical report says that the election will
also put an end to the political career of several Armenian
politicians. The Prosperous Armenia party is believed to achieve its
minimum task and deserve an invitation to form a new government. The
following is the text of report by Armenian newspaper Golos Armenii
website on 3 May entitled "Ten days before the poll"; subheadings have
been inserted editorially:

3 May: Ten days are left to the parliamentary election. This election
is remarkable in many respects. First, the election campaign continues
at a much higher level than before. It is very live and the
competition is reasonably fair.

Four parties tipped for win

This election may mark the start of recovering in the political arena.
Experts predict a change of generations to a certain degree. We shall
not see many prominent persons in the new parliament. It is possible
that the election will also put an end to the radical opposition as a
political trend that influences domestic political processes. What
will the radicals undertake in the last week [of the election
campaign]?

So far the election campaign has been going smoothly. However, we
should not forget that a normal political process also has its
enemies. With what capital are the key players of the election race
going to the finish of the election campaign?

The Republican Party of Armenia is conducting a stable and
comprehensive election campaign. The minimum task for the party is to
win the election. The maximum task is to have an absolute majority in
the future parliament. Like many other players of the political race,
it seems that the RPA will be able to do the minimum task, but it will
not be enough for the maximum task. That is to say, the RPA will win
but this victory will not be enough to form a government
independently. According to our forecast, the RPA will have about
58-62 seats in parliament.

The minimum task for the Prosperous Armenia party is to get as many
votes as possible in order to be able to participate in a new
coalition government. The maximum task is to win the election. It
seems that like the RPA, the Prosperous Armenia party will be able to
cope with the minimum task. It will hardly be able to fulfill the
maximum task. Our prediction is that the party will get 23-25 seats.

The minimum task for the ARFD is to preserve the current seats in
parliament. The maximum task is to increase the number of seats in
order to get a larger share of a coalition government. The first task
can be coped with, but the second one will be difficult to fulfill
given the strong positions of the RPA and the Prosperous Armenia. Our
forecast is 13 seats.

Struggle for main opposition status

The minimum task for the Orinats Yerkir [Law-Governed Country] Party
is to become the leader of the opposition movement; the maximum task
is to repeat its achievements of 2003. As our readers might have
guessed, the second target is unattainable, but the first one is not
ruled out despite a scandal connected with the revelations of Artur
Baghdasaryan in a conversation with [a British diplomat].

Orinats Yerkir does not have a candidate to win under the
first-past-the-post system. However, under the proportional system,
the party can gain 10 seats.

These four parties are the political minimum which will be represented
in the new parliament. That is to say, in the "worst" case the
parliament will consist of these four political forces, if the
remaining parties are unable to pass the 5 per cent threshold, and the
aforementioned "monsters" will "share" their percentages.

Further comes a group of political parties that have good chances of
passing the 5-per-cent threshold. Among them let us identify a
sub-group which have greater chances.

The first one is the National Unity Party. Its minimum task is to pass
the 5-per-cent threshold; the maximum task is to become the leader of
the opposition. We have to repeat the cliche that the minimum task is
attainable. As for the maximum task, we assume it is not. Although in
this case we need to make a small reservation: the National Unity
still has time to leave behind Orinats Yerkir. So far, according to
our forecasts, the party can reckon on nine seats.

Chances of the Heritage promising

The Heritage Party of Raffi Hovhannisyan has good chances. The party’s
minimum and maximum tasks are the same, i.e. to pass the 5-per-cent
threshold. Owing to its leader’s charisma, it is possible for the
Heritage Party to succeed in this task and thus the party will become
the political revelation of the new season. At present the Heritage
actually has a good chance of being elected to parliament, but the
party should not indulge in vain hope. So far the party stands a
better chance. Much will depend on whether the Heritage will maintain
the campaign rate of its more powerful competitors in the coming days.
As far as we can judge, the party has not many organizational
structures which hamper the conduct of the election campaign. Our
forecast is that the party will get six seats under the proportional
system.

Gloomy forecast for main opposition party

The fate of Stepan Demirchyan’s People’s Party [PPA] of Armenia is one
of the main intrigues of the current election campaign. Will the
party, which until recently pretended to be the leading opposition
party, be able to be elected to parliament? Today the party has a
single task of being elected to parliament. There is a chance, but it
is necessary to fight for it. We forecast six seats for the party.

We have to repeat that the aforementioned three parties (the National
Unity, the Heritage, and the PPA) have good chances of being elected
to parliament. However, these chances still should be realized, and
very much in their fate will depend on the last week of the election
campaign. If these parties do not miss their chances, we will have
seven parties in our parliament, which is a good combination of
political forces for the present day Armenia.

The following group is composed by the parties which also have a
chance of being elected to parliament if they succeed in mobilizing
their resources and successfully conducting the last week of the
election campaign and force out someone from the mentioned troika (the
National Unity, the Heritage and the People’s Party of Armenia). They
can also succeed if the four leaders of the election race do not get
their percentages. This is very unlikely but cannot be ruled out. The
parties which are capable of being elected to parliament are trailed
by untiring Tigran Karapetovich with his People’s Party.

According to current estimations, the People’s Party is to get about 4
per cent, i.e. close to the 5 per cent threshold. But it will not be
easy to do the task.

Gurgen Arsenyan’s United Labour Party, which is lying in ambush, is
approximately in the same situation. Let us note that the party was
roughly in the same situation during the previous election. At that
time no-one would include the party on the list of favourites (with a
week left to the election, the majority of experts did not give it
more than 1 per cent). However, within a week, Gurgen Arsenyan and the
campaign performed a small hocus-pocus and the party was elected to
parliament. It is possible that Gurgen Arsenyan hopes to repeat the
scenario of 2003.

And finally, we should not forget about Dashink [Alliance] and the
National Democratic Party headed by Shavarsh Kocharyan. The latter is
a good, typical parliamentary party which can be very useful for the
new National Assembly. But these parameters are not enough to get to
parliament.

In any case, these four parties (the PP, the ULP, the NDP, the
Dashink) have chances, but in order to be elected to parliament, they
should work harder in the remaining days and work wonders of political
tightrope walking, as was already said in the manner of Gurgen
Arsenyan in 2003.

Radical opposition

Well and finally about the radical opposition. Much will depend on the
widely advertised rally of the Impeachment bloc, the Republic Party
[of Aram Zaven Sargsyan] and the New Times scheduled for today. Much
will depend not for the society but for the radicals [as given].

It boils down to the fact whether there remains a chance for them to
play or they will soon have this chance. The chances of the radical
opposition are very small, and in this sense, the decision of the
Armenian Pan-National Movement to withdraw from the election race is
justified and timely from a pragmatic standpoint. At least, the
Armenian Pan-National Movement has again proved that it can act in
conformity with political logic and realities.

From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress