EXPERTS SKEPTICAL ABOUT PROSPECTS FOR KARABAKH BREAKTHROUGH
by Rovshan Ismayilov
Transitions OnLine, Czech Republic
May 9 2007
The Azeri leader claims Armenia will make concessions over the occupied
territory, but observers remain doubtful. From EurasiaNet.
Despite evidence of movement toward a settlement of the long-stalemated
Nagorno-Karabakh peace talks, Azeri experts remain skeptical that
Azerbaijan and Armenia will settle their differences in the near
future.
Mediators from the Organization for Security and Cooperation in
Europe’s Minsk Group have sounded optimistic notes of late about
progress in negotiations. U.S. Deputy Assistant Secretary of State and
Minsk Group co-chair Matthew Bryza indicated in an interview with Voice
of America that the two sides appeared on the verge of breakthroughs
in several areas. According to a transcript of Bryza’s comments
distributed by the Today.az website, Azeri and Armenian negotiators
were nearing agreement on the return of two Armenian-occupied regions
of Azerbaijan, Kalbajar and Lachin. In addition, the two sides were
making headway on perhaps the thorniest issue: Karabakh’s future
political status.
Following an OSCE Permanent Council session in mid-April, Armenian
Foreign Minister Vardan Oskanian was quoted as saying that, at least
on paper, "we have never been as close to a settlement," the Arminfo
news agency reported.
Elmar Mammadyarov, the Azeri foreign minister, was also cautiously
upbeat. Speaking to journalists in Baku on 26 April, Mammadyarov
hinted that progress had been made, but added that all the details
had not yet been worked out. "Negotiations have to continue," he said.
Armenian President Robert Kocharian recently revealed that he is
likely to meet with his Azeri counterpart, Ilham Aliev, early in June
in the Russian city of St. Petersburg. "After this meeting it will
be clear at which stage we are now," Kocharian said. Armenian leaders
are currently focused on that country’s parliamentary elections on 12
May. Pro-Kocharian parties are expected to maintain their solid hold
on power, thus it is likely that the vote’s outcome will not have a
significant impact on the Armenian negotiating position.
On 4 May, Aliev appeared to engage in a bit of negotiating gamesmanship
when he claimed during a public ceremony that Armenia had made
pivotal concessions. The Azeri president alleged that Armenia had
already agreed to withdraw from all seven of the occupied territories
surrounding Karabakh, including Kalbajar and Lachin, the two most
strategically sensitive areas under discussion. Yerevan had also
consented to withdraw troops from the occupied territories before
the establishment of a framework for the determination of Karabakh’s
status, Aliev said.
In addition, according to Aliev, internally displaced persons (IDPs)
in Azerbaijan would be permitted to return to their homes in the
conflict region as soon as Armenian troops withdrew from the occupied
territories. Armenia and Azerbaijan have both sanctioned the deployment
of an international peacekeeping force in the region for a limited
period of time, Aliev added.
Aliev’s statements run counter to the existing basic principles for an
agreement. Under those guidelines, the implementation of any portion
of a peace pact cannot begin until all outstanding issues are resolved.
Armenian leaders immediately denied making any negotiating
concessions. Meanwhile, Bryza indicated that the two sides remained
divided over the composition of a peacekeeping force. A means for
determining Karabakh’s final status also remains problematic. Azeri
officials have said that the return of Azerbaijani IDPs to Karabakh
must take place before any kind of vote or referendum on the
territory’s political status could be considered.
Political analysts in Baku remain unconvinced that a peace deal
is within reach. Referring to the recent string of optimistic
pronouncements from officials involved in the negotiations, Ilgar
Mammadov, Baku-based independent political analyst, said: "We have
already heard it in the past."
Alesker Mammadli, a Baku-based lawyer and political analyst (as well
as an IDP from the Agdam Region), expressed the belief that Yerevan’s
desire to negotiate would weaken after that country’s parliamentary
elections. Mammadli additionally voiced doubt that Armenia would agree
to withdraw from occupied Azeri territory unless firm guarantees were
in place concerning the determination of Karabakh’s status. "The
occupied territories are their [Armenia’s] main trump card at the
talks. From the other standpoint, Azerbaijan cannot give guarantees
over the status of Karabakh, as government officials [in Baku] always
have said that a settlement will maintain the country’s territorial
integrity," he said.
Mammadov said that the respective administrations of Aliev and
Kocharian were in relatively strong domestic political positions,
and thus had no incentive to budge from their current negotiating
stances. "Both countries are not weak now and there is no chance"
of pressuring them into making sizable concessions, Mammadov said.
"Therefore I do not expect anything serious from the upcoming meeting
of the presidents."
Experts’ pessimism is related in part to the instability of the
ceasefire regime at the frontline. Azeri and Armenian news outlets
both have reported widespread and frequent exchanges of gunfire
throughout April and into early May.
Rovshan Ismayilov is a freelance journalist based in Baku. This is
a partner post from EurasiaNet.