IMPOVERISHED ARMENIA VOTES AMID HUNGER FOR CHANGE
by Michael Mainville

Agence France Presse — English
May 10, 2007 Thursday 5:02 AM GMT

Armenians vote in parliamentary elections on Saturday, hungry for an
end to the poverty that has plagued their country since independence
from the Soviet Union more than 15 years ago.

But while polls show Armenians support drastic change, analysts say a
deeply divided opposition and voter apathy are likely to hand victory
to pro-government parties.

Disillusioned with politics, many Armenians say they aren’t planning
to vote at all.

"What’s the point? Nothing will change for ordinary people no
matter who’s in charge. It’s all nonsense," said Akhavni Sogoian,
a 42-year-old resident of Kond, an impoverished neighbourhood on a
hilltop overlooking the Armenian capital Yerevan.

At first glance, Armenia appears ripe for reform. Outside of central
Yerevan with its sidewalk cafes and chic boutiques, the country
languishes in deep poverty.

Picturesque mountain villages lie empty, abandoned by the hundreds
of thousands of Armenians who have left the country in search of work.

Soviet-era factories sit idle, rusting and crumbling.

Of Armenia’s three million people, more than 30 percent live on less
than two dollars (1.50 euros) a day. Many more struggle to pay for
bare necessities.

A Gallup poll in March found that more than 50 percent of Armenians
believe the country is on the wrong track. In a January survey 93
percent of respondents said Armenia needs "radical" social-economic
changes.

And yet two pro-government parties — the ruling Republican Party
of Armenia (HKK) and the Prosperous Armenia party of millionaire and
former World Arm Wrestling Champion Gagik Tsarukian — appear set to
sweep the election.

The opposition claims the vote, widely seen as a dress rehearsal for
next year’s presidential election, will be rigged to ensure victory
for the HKK. Its leader, Prime Minister Serzh Sarkisian, is considered
the top candidate to replace President Robert Kocharian at the end
of his second and final term next year.

Opposition leaders say they are preparing to organise mass protests
if they consider the vote unfair.

"If the elections are falsified, we will fight against the
falsification with all possible means…. We will use the power
of the people who want to live in a free and democratic country,"
said Artur Baghdasarian, leader of the Country of Law Party, which
polls show is likely to place third in the election after the HKK
and Prosperous Armenia.

But analysts say the opposition has failed to galvanise support by
refusing to unite under a single anti-government banner. Nearly 20
opposition parties are taking part in the election and few are expected
to cross the five percent threshold needed to enter parliament.

Ninety of the Armenian National Assembly’s seats are being contested
using a proportional system under which seats are assigned based
on overall party votes. The assembly’s remaining 41 seats will be
assigned to the winners of individual constituency elections.

Pro-government parties deny there will be falsification and say voters
will back the government’s record of strong economic growth in the
face of difficult odds.

As well as being landlocked and short on natural resources, Armenia
is isolated by the closure of two of its four borders. Turkey and
Azerbaijan have cut off relations with Yerevan over Armenia’s seizure
of Nagorny Karabakh and other Azerbaijani territory in the early 1990s.

Despite this, the Armenian economy has grown by an average of 10
percent a year over the last decade. The ruling HKK is promising to
double GDP growth, exports and average salaries if re-elected.

"We are the party people can trust to deliver. We can say: ‘This
is what we have done. We have taken the first steps and now we are
ready to make the next move to improve the lives our citizens,’"
said Tigran Torosian, the speaker of the National Assembly and a star
HKK candidate.

Opposition leaders say endemic corruption has allowed only a wealthy
few with government connections to benefit from economic growth. They
predict Armenians will reject pro-government parties at the ballot
box and, if necessary, on the streets.

But previous attempts to organise post-election demonstrations in
Armenia have fizzled and political analyst Alexander Iskandarian said
it’s unlikely this time will be any different.

"It will be 10,000-15,000 people on the streets in the beginning but
after one or two weeks it will die down," he said. "Armenians want
change, but they don’t yet believe that participation in politics
will accomplish anything."