Regnum, Russia
May 12 2007

Armenia’s elections: Society is awaken, politicians dazzled

If one tries to summarize results of election campaigns of political
forces and certain politicians running for the National Assembly, the
following picture emerges. The situation of mass rallying activity
emerged on the threshold of the May 12 voting. Society that had been
in apathy and passiveness suddenly showed increased interest I the
elections and became actively involved into various mass events. Most
activity has been registered in the republican capital Yerevan.

It can be said that the population was equally active both in
opposition rallies and all mass events of the pro-governmental
parties. Activity of opposition rallies increased during the last
week of the election campaign. During the same period, confrontation
increased in the relations of the government and the opposition.
However, even sharper confrontation was shown in the relations of the
pro-governmental parties Dashnaktsutyun, the Republican Party and the
Prosperous Armenia Party. If only one incident, when protesters and
police clashed, took place between the government and the opposition
(a rally near the National Security Service headquarters was
dispersed on May 9), the contradictions in the pro-governmental camp
resulted in beating people, exploding election campaign headquarters,
shelling and even killings. Nevertheless, the confrontation in all
directions of the relations was mainly concentrated in public
polemics.

Noteworthy, almost all officials are saying in unison that Armenia’s
history has not seen such `calm and civilized’ elections before. The
statements do not agree with almost weekly killings of various
authoritative persons, beatings, arrests and other forms of abuse.
Nevertheless, the mood for victory and expectation of election
outcome is so dazzling for all political forces that the abuses fade
into the background. None of the political forces was deprived of
airtime on television. However, the current election campaign has
been taking place under total information control of the Republican
Party leader, Prime Minister Serzh Sargsyan. Choosing the tactics of
personal control over the election campaign of the party, the prime
minister unwillingly became the driving force for increasing activity
of major rivals of the ruling party.

Most of all this reflected upon activity of the pro-presidential
Prosperous Armenia, which acquired mass rallies and events with
cultural programs as its favorite tool. As for the other
pro-governmental party, Dashnaktsutyun, by the end of its election
campaign its behavior started resembling behavior of an opposition
party. At some moment it seemed that the whole election campaign
would come to a competition and polemics of the three mentioned
forces.

Meanwhile, the last week of the election race was marked by drastic
increase in numbers of opposition mass events, first of all, by the
Impeachment Bloc and Orinats Yerkir Party. A scandal around Orinats
Yerkir leader Artur Bagdassaryan as well as arrest of former foreign
minister, member of the Armenian National Movement Alexander
Arzumanyan became stimulants to the sudden change. Eyes of society
turned to opposition parties again, changing the psychological
climate in the country suddenly.

The idea of the post-election mass opposition protests and `velvet
revolution’ was reanimated again in public speeches of opposition
leaders. On May 9, leaders of the Impeachment Bloc announced their
intention to take people to the streets on the election day, May 12.
On May 10, Artur Bagdassaryan announced that he would be in the first
rows of those protesting in case election fraud takes place. Anyway,
forecasts that peace in the country will restore right after election
outcomes are announced look premature. Clashes of protesters and
police on May 9 to some extent became a litmus paper to potential
moods of the opposition. Moreover, specific of the current elections
is that threats to denounce elections outcomes in case of fraud come
from the pro-government parties as well, first of all from
Dashnaktsutyun. Armenia has not seen such incidents before.

In any case, all key participants say that they are aimed at victory,
and one political force, the Republican Party even announced its
intention to receive absolute majority of mandates in the future
parliament. It is hard to say unambiguously how much they believe in
their own words. It is easier to suppose how the events will develop
further. It is evident that the pro-governmental parties can secure
ponderable membership in the parliament. But how each
pro-governmental force will like the outcomes will be clear from
their actions after the election day. At least, nobody is willing to
forecast on further cooperation of the future coalition. Claims and
quiet threats are more heard addressed to each other. Member of the
pro-governmental Dashnaktsutyun Armen Rustamyan even said he did not
rule out that his party would cooperate with the opposition.

Undoubtedly, Orinats Yerkir Party would have weighty representation
in the new parliament. This thing is not denied even by
pro-governmental sociologists. The same concerns the National Unity
Party by Artashes Geghamyan. As for other forces, which have always
been surrounded by intrigue, any forecasts are senseless here.
Whether the now coalition United Labor Party or Samvel Babayan’s
Dashink Party will come to the parliament, only leaders of the forces
know and those on whom it depends.

No matter how much officials and party leaders are speaking at length
about the `vox populi’, everyone comprehends that there is another
factor in Armenia apart from it – agreement and political bargaining.
The fact that such things are practiced widely is evident. Example of
it is consistent rumors about a deal between Stepan Demirchyan’s
People’s Party and the government.

It is noteworthy, that members of the radical opposition Impeachment
Movement, The Republic Party and The New Times Party that have become
increasingly popular recently started feeling sorry about their
fragmentation. There even was a call to two forces to renounce their
participation in the elections in favor of the third one. However, as
they say, the insight came too late: there are concerns now that
separately those political forces would not be able to overcome the
5% barrier. But time does not wait: those willing to cooperate can do
it after the election day. Who will be whose friend or enemy it will
be clear after today’s voting.