Voice of America
May 11 2007
Armenian Voters Prepare to Elect New Parliament
By Lisa McAdams
Moscow
11 May 2007
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Armenians go to the polls this Saturday in a parliamentary election
seen as a key test for democracy ahead of next year’s presidential
vote. VOA’s Lisa McAdams in Moscow reports two pro-government
parties are running strong against a field of nearly 20 opposition
parties.
Supporters of the Country of Law Party attend a campaign rally 06 May
2007 in Yerevan, Armenia ahead of the 12 May 2007 parliamentary
elections
Armenia has not had an election deemed free and fair by international
observers since gaining independence from the former Soviet Union in
1991. This Saturday’s vote will be closely watched.
With elections for a new president just one year away, the
international community has made it clear that is wants to see an
improvement over Armenia’s last parliamentary elections, in 2003,
when there were widespread allegations of voter fraud.
The United States says millions of dollars in aid to Armenia could be
threatened if the election is deemed unfair. The European Union,
Armenia’s primary trading partner, also says a fair election is
necessary for Armenia to continue participating in its European
Neighborhood Policy program.
Yevgeni Volk, the Director of the Heritage Foundation’s Moscow
office, says Armenia’s authorities know they must produce a better
parliamentary election than in 2003. But either way, he says, the
country is destined for change.
"Whoever wins in the election, even those forces mostly associated
with Russia, I believe that they will have to review their policies
toward more openness toward the European Union and NATO, just because
Russia can not offer Armenia reliable, economic and political
prospects for the future," he noted.
Volk notes that more than 30 percent of Armenia’s 3 million people
live on less than $2 a day. Discontent is high, he says, but so too
is voter apathy.
Despite growing discontent, few of Armenia’s opposition parties are
expected to secure the five percent threshold needed to join
parliament. Volk and other analysts say that is because the
political opposition made a tactical error in failing to unite under
a single anti-government banner.
Opposition leaders are already warning of possible fraud in
Saturday’s election and say they will organize mass street protests,
if they consider the vote unfair.
Analyst Volk says much will depend on the election results.
"If the margin between the winners and losers will be narrow, I
believe it will really cause some kinds of protests and violence,
which will be difficult to deal with," he added. "If the gap will be
larger, I believe the opposition will feel weaker."
There have already been several incidents of election-related
violence leading up to Saturday’s vote and, in the final week of
campaigning, authorities in Armenia announced the arrest of
opposition activist Alexander Arzumanian on money-laundering charges.
The arrest significantly raised opposition fears that the upcoming
parliamentary vote will be neither free, nor fair. Pro-government
parties deny there will be falsification and say voters will back the
government’s record.
Two pro-government parties, the ruling Republican Party of Armenia,
led by presidential favorite Serge Sarkisian, and the Prosperous
Armenia party of Gagik Tsarukian, are expected to sweep the election.
The outcome of Saturday’s election is likely to dictate the course of
the country’s presidential vote in 2008. Sarkisian, the acting prime
minister and President Robert Kocharyan’s friend and favored
successor, is expected by analysts to easily defeat the opposition
when voters in go to the polls next year.
From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress
