Agence France Presse — English
May 11, 2007 Friday

West warns of serious consequences if Armenia vote flawed

by Michael Mainville

Western governments have issued a stark warning to Armenia ahead of
parliamentary elections on Saturday — improve on previously flawed
votes or face serious consequences.

Already contending with closed borders and widespread poverty,
Armenia faces further isolation and cuts in foreign aid if Western
observers rule that Saturday’s vote is not an improvement on previous
polls.

Past elections in this small ex-Soviet country have been marred by
allegations of ballot stuffing, intimidation and other forms of voter
fraud.

The government appears to be taking Western threats seriously and
observers say the pre-election period has shown marked improvement
over previous campaigns.

"This time around the world will not simply say ‘shame on you,’"
Foreign Minister Vardan Oskanian said. "This time there will be
negative economic consequences for ordinary people."

The United States and European Union have repeatedly warned of
negative consequences for the Armenian government if they see a
repeat of previous voting irregularities.

US officials have said the provision of 235 million dollars (175
million euros) in aid to Armenia under the Millennium Challenge Fund
would be threatened if the vote is deemed unfair.

The EU has warned that a democratic election is necessary if Armenia
wants to continue to participate in the European Neighbourhood Policy
(ENP) programme, under which the EU has pledged to build stronger
economic and political ties with the country.

Armenia is among the largest recipients of US foreign aid in the
world and is also intent on strengthening relations with Europe.
Short on natural resources, Armenia counts on foreign aid to boost
its small but growing economy.

The country is also isolated by the closure of its borders with
Turkey and Azerbaijan over its seizure of the disputed territory of
Nagorny Karabakh and other Azerbaijani territory in the early 1990s.

Pre-election polls show two pro-government parties, the ruling
Republican Party of Armenia (HKK) and the Prosperous Armenia party of
millionaire former arm wrestling champion Gagik Tsarukian, far ahead
of the opposition.

Anti-government parties allege the election campaign has already been
unfair, with pro-government parties getting preferred media coverage
and officials using state resources to undermine opposition
candidates.

US-born former foreign minister Raffi Hovannisian said his opposition
Heritage party has faced significant hurdles in getting media
coverage and has been repeatedly shut out of potential campaign
venues.

"Unfortunately, Armenia is long on civilization and short on
statecraft," he said.

Heritage, one of the few anti-government parties expected to cross
the five-percent threshold of votes required to enter parliament, is
among a number of opposition groups planning to organize
post-election demonstrations if the vote is declared fraudulent.

Still, longtime observers say this election campaign has already
shown vast improvement over previous votes.

State television has granted equal airtime to all political parties
for campaign advertisements, although wealthier parties can also buy
extra time. Opposition campaign posters are widespread and
authorities have yet to refuse the opposition permission to hold
public rallies.

"It seems to us that in general the government has not restricted at
all access of candidates to the voters," said a senior Western
diplomat who requested anonymity. "It’s good to see. It seems that
the direction from on high has been ‘hands off.’"

Western observers will now be watching election day for signs of
ballot stuffing and other forms of election fraud.

They will also keep an eye on post-election demonstrations to see if
the government reacts with force, as it did when police detained and
beat protesters after Armenia’s 2003 parliamentary vote.

"I expect there will be protests. I hope the government will be
sensible and react without disproportionate force," the Western
diplomat said. "I hope they don’t spoil what has so far been a pretty
good election period."

About 2.3 million of Armenia’s three million people are registered to
vote.

More than 20 political parties and 1,000 candidates will be vying for
seats in the National Assembly. Ninety of the seats will be assigned
under a proportional system based on overall party votes, while the
remaining 41 seats will be taken by winners of individual
constituency votes.

More than 300 observers from the Organization for Security and
Cooperation in Europe will monitor the vote along with hundreds of
other local and foreign observers.