THE VALUE OF THE QUESTION
by Gennadi Sysoyev, observer
Translated by Elena Leonova
Source: Kommersant, No. 79, May 2007, p. 5
Agency WPS
What the Papers Say Part A (Russia)
May 14, 2007 Monday
Political similarities between Armenia and Russia; The political
bets for Armenia’s parliamentary election can be placed in several
categories at once, since a great deal does indeed depend on the
outcome of Saturday’s vote. The greatest point of suspense in
Armenia’s election stems from its function as a rehearsal of the
Operation Successor model.
The political bets for Armenia’s parliamentary election can be placed
in several categories at once, since a great deal does indeed depend
on the outcome of Saturday’s vote.
Firstly, this election will decide which party will be Armenia’s
leading party; thus, it will decide who the presidential candidate
will be. Secondly, Armenia’s future orientation is becoming more
apparent, and in simplified terms it comes down to one question:
siding with Russia, or siding with the West? Thirdly, this election
will clarify the geopolitical configuration in the Trans-Caucasus
and Russia’s place within it.
Yet the greatest point of suspense in Armenia’s election stems from
its function as a rehearsal of the Operation Successor model – almost
exactly the same as Russia’s version of that model.
Like President Vladimir Putin, Armenian President Robert Kocharian
is barred by the two-term limit from seeking another term in office.
Moreover, the presidential elections in Armenia and Russia will
happen at around the same tim. Kocharian has already made it clear
that even after he leaves office, he intends to remain a key actor in
Armenian politics; Putin has also said that he won’t withdraw from the
decision-making process even after someone else moves into the Kremlin.
Unlike his Russian counterpart, however, Kocharian seems to have picked
a successor already. Ordinary citizens and the Armenian political elite
are sure that the successor is Prime Minister Serzhe Sarkisian. Russia
still has two potential successors: Dmitri Medvedev and Sergei Ivanov.
Armenia’s party politics configuration is also identical to that of
Russia. United Russia’s equivalent is the Armenian Republican Party,
headed by Sarkisian the successor. Most ministers and regional leaders
are members of this party, along with a vast number of federal and
regional bureaucrats; the party has vast administrative, media,
and financial resources. In short, it’s a typical official party.
All the same, Armenia has followed Russia’s lead in establishing
a second official party, which simultaneously manages to position
itself as an opposition party, criticizing the authorities (except
the president, of course). This party is called Prosperous Armenia –
the equivalent of Just Russia. True, it’s headed by Gagik Tsarukian,
Armenia’s most prominent oligarch; but all Russian oligarchs in the
Putin era have also come to a correct understanding of "corporate
social responsibility." Armenia’s version of Just Russia is acting
as a double, just in case the opposition manages to strike a palpable
blow at the main official party.
If the model with two official parties proves effective in Armenia (and
subsequently in Russia), and Operation Successor goes ahead without
a hitch, this will be something new for international experience with
the two-party system theory. Something new that’s only applicable in
the former Soviet Union.